GA2026
Governor · Georgia · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Democratic (Open) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
12 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 66/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ballot source: https://results.sos.ga.gov/results/public/Georgia/elections/GeneralPrimary51926
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
12 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Rick Jackson (R)Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Republican primary runoff
| Rick Jackson won | 373,543 | 52.6% |
| Burt Jones | 336,011 | 47.4% |
Democratic primary · official results
| Keisha Lance Bottoms won | 608,264 | 56.2% |
| Jason Esteves | 201,852 | 18.7% |
| Mike Thurmond | 139,787 | 12.9% |
| Geoff Duncan | 75,721 | 7.0% |
| Derrick Jackson | 25,050 | 2.3% |
| Amanda Duffy | 18,808 | 1.7% |
| Olujimi Brown | 12,329 | 1.1% |
Republican primary
| Burt Jones advanced | 358,184 | 38.4% |
| Rick Jackson advanced | 303,621 | 32.5% |
| Brad Raffensperger | 140,085 | 15.0% |
| Chris Carr | 110,720 | 11.9% |
| Clark Dean | 7,051 | 0.8% |
| Gregg Kirkpatrick | 5,537 | 0.6% |
| Ken Yasger | 4,770 | 0.5% |
| Thomas Williams | 3,849 | 0.4% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-05-19 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-06-16 — Runoff: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
- 2026-12-01 — General runoff: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (30)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Republican primary runoff · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-06-15–2026-06-15 · n=800 · Rick Jackson (R) 48%, Burt Jones 47% · release
- Republican primary runoff · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-06-13–2026-06-14 · n=800 · Rick Jackson (R) 49%, Burt Jones 46% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Concord Public Opinion Partners (partisan) · 2026-05-30–2026-06-02 · n=510 · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 52%, Burt Jones (R) 42% · release
- Republican primary runoff · JMC Analytics (partisan) · 2026-05-26–2026-05-27 · n=600 · Rick Jackson (R) 45%, Burt Jones 43% · release
- Republican primary runoff · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-21 · n=800 · Burt Jones 48%, Rick Jackson (R) 42% · release
- Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-20 · n=782 · Burt Jones 46%, Rick Jackson (R) 44% · release
- Republican primary · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-05-16–2026-05-17 · n=800 · Rick Jackson (R) 31%, Burt Jones 27%, Brad Raffensperger 16%, Chris Carr 10% · release
- Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-04-28–2026-05-02 · n=1,677 · Rick Jackson (R) 27%, Burt Jones 22%, Brad Raffensperger 14%, Chris Carr 8% · release
- Democratic primary · University of Georgia · 2026-04-23–2026-04-29 · n=1,000 · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 39%, Michael Thurmond 10%, Jason Esteves 8%, Geoff Duncan 7% · release
- Republican primary · Remington Research Group (partisan) · 2026-04-28–2026-04-29 · n=815 · Rick Jackson (R) 29%, Burt Jones 28%, Brad Raffensperger 14%, Chris Carr 5% · release
- Republican primary · University of Georgia · 2026-04-18–2026-04-26 · n=1,000 · Rick Jackson (R) 27%, Burt Jones 25%, Brad Raffensperger 14%, Chris Carr 3% · release
- Republican primary · yes. every kid. · 2026-04-22–2026-04-24 · n=603 · Rick Jackson (R) 32%, Burt Jones 26%, Brad Raffensperger 12%, Chris Carr 10% · release
- Republican primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-04-22–2026-04-23 · n=600 · Rick Jackson (R) 27%, Burt Jones 24%, Brad Raffensperger 12%, Chris Carr 6% · release
- Republican primary · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-04-22–2026-04-23 · n=800 · Rick Jackson (R) 32%, Burt Jones 25%, Brad Raffensperger 11%, Chris Carr 6% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Echelon Insights · 2026-04-03–2026-04-09 · n=407 · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 46%, Brad Raffensperger (R) 44% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Echelon Insights · 2026-04-03–2026-04-09 · n=407 · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 49%, Burt Jones (R) 43% · release
- Democratic primary · 20/20 Insight · 2026-03-19–2026-03-24 · n=575 · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 32%, Jason Esteves 14%, Geoff Duncan 12%, Michael Thurmond 11% · release
- Republican primary · JMC Analytics · 2026-03-07–2026-03-08 · n=560 · Rick Jackson (R) 37%, Burt Jones 22%, Brad Raffensperger 11%, Chris Carr 4% · release
- Democratic primary · Emerson College · 2026-02-28–2026-03-02 · n=464 · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 35%, Geoff Duncan 13%, Michael Thurmond 7%, Jason Esteves 4% · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-02-28–2026-03-02 · n=453 · Burt Jones 21%, Rick Jackson (R) 20%, Brad Raffensperger 11%, Chris Carr 6% · release
- Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-02-17–2026-02-18 · n=1,337 · Rick Jackson (R) 33%, Burt Jones 17%, Brad Raffensperger 8%, Chris Carr 5% · release
- Republican primary · Rasmussen Reports (partisan) · 2026-02-11–2026-02-12 · n=1,022 · Rick Jackson (R) 22%, Brad Raffensperger 18%, Burt Jones 16%, Chris Carr 10% · release
- Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-02-08–2026-02-09 · n=1,123 · Rick Jackson (R) 24%, Burt Jones 16%, Brad Raffensperger 9%, Chris Carr 3% · release
- Republican primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-02-05–2026-02-06 · n=600 · Burt Jones 22%, Rick Jackson (R) 16%, Brad Raffensperger 10%, Chris Carr 7% · release
- Republican primary · InsiderAdvantage (R)/ Rosetta Stone (partisan) · 2025-12-18–2025-12-19 · n=1,000 · Burt Jones 24%, Brad Raffensperger 14%, Chris Carr 9% · release
- Republican primary · University of Georgia · 2025-10-15–2025-10-23 · n=1,000 · Burt Jones 22%, Brad Raffensperger 15%, Chris Carr 7% · release
- Democratic primary · University of Georgia · 2025-10-13–2025-10-21 · n=1,000 · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 40%, Michael Thurmond 11%, Geoff Duncan 5%, Jason Esteves 3% · release
- Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2025-10-13–2025-10-14 · n=900 · Burt Jones 32%, Brad Raffensperger 15%, Chris Carr 12% · release
- Democratic primary · Frederick Polls (partisan) · 2025-09-23–2025-09-25 · n=1,513 · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 43%, Michael Thurmond 25%, Geoff Duncan 17%, Jason Esteves 10% · release
- Republican primary · yes. every kid. (partisan) · 2025-07-22–2025-07-23 · n=608 · Marjorie Taylor Greene 22%, Burt Jones 18%, Brad Raffersperger 13%, Chris Carr 11% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention 66 Vector D · Open
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
66OUT OF 100Moderate attention
Attention percentile90th
7-day momentum5 / 100
Source breadth100% of tracked
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres) · missing: incumbent, money, pulse, poll
Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-27 (3 days ago)
Vector component signals · estimated margin D +3.4Presidential lean of the seat (2024 R +2.2, national swing D +8.4)D +6.2Last result for this seat (2022 R +7.5, national swing D +8.5)D +0.9National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing × 0.8 for this office; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 193422796a14 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: Toss-up (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.