Who is ahead in the 2026 Georgia Governor race?

Name: Governor, Georgia, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Home / Races / Georgia / Governor

GA2026

Governor · Georgia · 2026

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

VecD 16 · OpenTenR 56%Att58

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) won this race with 54.3% of the vote, 8.7 points ahead.

Keisha Lance BottomsDemocraticWinner54.3%2,273,897 votes
Rick JacksonRepublican45.7%1,910,917 votes

Margin: 362,980 votes (8.7 points)
Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 9:24 PM ET (revision)
Last updated: Nov 13, 1:43 PM ET
Source: Wikipedia (editors’ projection) · official results page

Called it: miss Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is D. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

Race poll averageGovernor · Georgia

Keisha Lance Bottoms

49.6%

Rick Jackson

50.4%

Verified poll average · 6 polls · newest poll ended 2026-11-02

Toss-upfrom verified polls

Verified polls Jackson leads Bottoms by 0.7 points in our average of verified polls.

6 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-11-02. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 58/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 6 days ago. How it works

On the Georgia ballot, Nov 3, 2026 Governor, 2 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Georgia? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-13. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Keisha Lance BottomsGovernor - GADemocraticOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Rick JacksonGovernor - GARepublicanOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file

Ballot source: https://results.sos.ga.gov/results/public/api/elections/Georgia/11032026GeneralAndSpecialElection/ballot-items

Polling average · 6 verified pollsVerified

Jackson +0.7

Keisha Lance Bottoms Democratic: 49.6%
Rick Jackson Republican: 50.4%

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

6 verified polls

Latest verified pollVerified

Tied

Keisha Lance Bottoms Democratic: 49%
Rick Jackson Republican: 49%

Undecided 2%

Cite / verify

Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-GA-GOV

Sourcehttps://insideradvantage.com/it-figures-in-matt-towery-and-insideradvantages-final-public-poll-at-the-end-of-a-26-year-career-georgias-governors-race-has-a-3-separation-insideradvantages-final-georgia-governors-su/

Retrieved2026-11-14

Polling average Updates as polls arrive

6 verified inputs

50.4% Rick Jackson49.6% Keisha Lance Bottoms

Rick Jackson (R)Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Vugol Tensor

How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction

tensor-1.0.0

Centre R+0.7. Four times in five the result lands between D+6.0 and R+7.5; nine in ten between D+7.9 and R+9.4. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 44%.

Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (6 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →

Results

Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.

general election · state results feed, unofficial

Keisha Lance Bottoms won	2,273,897	54.3%
Rick Jackson	1,910,917	45.7%

Keisha Lance Bottoms leads by 362,980 votes. 100% of reporting units counted.

Republican primary runoff

Rick Jackson won	373,543	52.6%
Burt Jones	336,011	47.4%

Democratic primary · official results

Keisha Lance Bottoms won	608,264	56.2%
Jason Esteves	201,852	18.7%
Mike Thurmond	139,787	12.9%
Geoff Duncan	75,721	7.0%
Derrick Jackson	25,050	2.3%
Amanda Duffy	18,808	1.7%
Olujimi Brown	12,329	1.1%

Republican primary

Burt Jones advanced	358,184	38.4%
Rick Jackson advanced	303,621	32.5%
Brad Raffensperger	140,085	15.0%
Chris Carr	110,720	11.9%
Clark Dean	7,051	0.8%
Gregg Kirkpatrick	5,537	0.6%
Ken Yasger	4,770	0.5%
Thomas Williams	3,849	0.4%

Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-13 · parser state-feed-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-05-19, Primary election: U.S. Senate
2026-06-16, Runoff: U.S. Senate
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
2026-12-01, General runoff: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (30)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Republican primary runoff · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-06-15–2026-06-15 · n=800 · Rick Jackson (R) 48%,Burt Jones 47% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary runoff · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-06-13–2026-06-14 · n=800 · Rick Jackson (R) 49%,Burt Jones 46% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Concord Public Opinion Partners (partisan) · 2026-05-30–2026-06-02 · n=510 · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 52%,Burt Jones (R) 42% · release
Republican primary runoff · JMC Analytics (partisan) · 2026-05-26–2026-05-27 · n=600 · Rick Jackson (R) 45%,Burt Jones 43% · release
Republican primary runoff · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-21 · n=800 · Burt Jones 48%,Rick Jackson (R) 42% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-20 · n=782 · Burt Jones 46%,Rick Jackson (R) 44% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-05-16–2026-05-17 · n=800 · Rick Jackson (R) 31%,Burt Jones 27%,Brad Raffensperger 16%,Chris Carr 10% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-04-28–2026-05-02 · n=1,677 · Rick Jackson (R) 27%,Burt Jones 22%,Brad Raffensperger 14%,Chris Carr 8% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · University of Georgia · 2026-04-23–2026-04-29 · n=1,000 · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 39%,Michael Thurmond 10%,Jason Esteves 8%,Geoff Duncan 7% · release
Republican primary · Remington Research Group (partisan) · 2026-04-28–2026-04-29 · n=815 · Rick Jackson (R) 29%,Burt Jones 28%,Brad Raffensperger 14%,Chris Carr 5% · release
Republican primary · University of Georgia · 2026-04-18–2026-04-26 · n=1,000 · Rick Jackson (R) 27%,Burt Jones 25%,Brad Raffensperger 14%,Chris Carr 3% · release
Republican primary · yes. every kid. · 2026-04-22–2026-04-24 · n=603 · Rick Jackson (R) 32%,Burt Jones 26%,Brad Raffensperger 12%,Chris Carr 10% · release
Republican primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-04-22–2026-04-23 · n=600 · Rick Jackson (R) 27%,Burt Jones 24%,Brad Raffensperger 12%,Chris Carr 6% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-04-22–2026-04-23 · n=800 · Rick Jackson (R) 32%,Burt Jones 25%,Brad Raffensperger 11%,Chris Carr 6% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Echelon Insights · 2026-04-03–2026-04-09 · n=407 · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 46%,Brad Raffensperger (R) 44% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Echelon Insights · 2026-04-03–2026-04-09 · n=407 · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 49%,Burt Jones (R) 43% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · 20/20 Insight · 2026-03-19–2026-03-24 · n=575 · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 32%,Jason Esteves 14%,Geoff Duncan 12%,Michael Thurmond 11% · release
Republican primary · JMC Analytics · 2026-03-07–2026-03-08 · n=560 · Rick Jackson (R) 37%,Burt Jones 22%,Brad Raffensperger 11%,Chris Carr 4% · release
Democratic primary · Emerson College · 2026-02-28–2026-03-02 · n=464 · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 35%,Geoff Duncan 13%,Michael Thurmond 7%,Jason Esteves 4% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-02-28–2026-03-02 · n=453 · Burt Jones 21%,Rick Jackson (R) 20%,Brad Raffensperger 11%,Chris Carr 6% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-02-17–2026-02-18 · n=1,337 · Rick Jackson (R) 33%,Burt Jones 17%,Brad Raffensperger 8%,Chris Carr 5% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Rasmussen Reports (partisan) · 2026-02-11–2026-02-12 · n=1,022 · Rick Jackson (R) 22%,Brad Raffensperger 18%,Burt Jones 16%,Chris Carr 10% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-02-08–2026-02-09 · n=1,123 · Rick Jackson (R) 24%,Burt Jones 16%,Brad Raffensperger 9%,Chris Carr 3% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-02-05–2026-02-06 · n=600 · Burt Jones 22%,Rick Jackson (R) 16%,Brad Raffensperger 10%,Chris Carr 7% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · InsiderAdvantage (R)/ Rosetta Stone (partisan) · 2025-12-18–2025-12-19 · n=1,000 · Burt Jones 24%,Brad Raffensperger 14%,Chris Carr 9% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · University of Georgia · 2025-10-15–2025-10-23 · n=1,000 · Burt Jones 22%,Brad Raffensperger 15%,Chris Carr 7% · release
Democratic primary · University of Georgia · 2025-10-13–2025-10-21 · n=1,000 · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 40%,Michael Thurmond 11%,Geoff Duncan 5%,Jason Esteves 3% · release
Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2025-10-13–2025-10-14 · n=900 · Burt Jones 32%,Brad Raffensperger 15%,Chris Carr 12% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Frederick Polls (partisan) · 2025-09-23–2025-09-25 · n=1,513 · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 43%,Michael Thurmond 25%,Geoff Duncan 17%,Jason Esteves 10% · release
Republican primary · yes. every kid. (partisan) · 2025-07-22–2025-07-23 · n=608 · Marjorie Taylor Greene 22%,Burt Jones 18%,Brad Raffersperger 13%,Chris Carr 11% · release

In the news

Black Turnout Rose in Georgia, Powered by Younger VotersNew York Times · Nov 12
Redistricting battle could spill into 2028Roll Call · Nov 9
The biggest winners, losers and surprises from the 2026 midtermsDeseret News · Nov 5
House Democrats will start their majority focused on boosting healthcare and ending the Iran warABC News · Nov 7
Bottoms taps Tyler Perry for her Georgia transition teamThe Hill · Nov 6
An hour-by-hour guide to watching the 2026 midterms, and when we’ll know who controls CongressNew York Post · Nov 3
Nithya Raman to take charge in LA amid homeless crisis and political divisionABC News · Nov 7
Democrats have a majority of governors. That could have political ripple effects.Christian Science Monitor · Nov 4
How to watch critical 2026 midterm election races in TX, OH, MI, WI, GA, IA, NV, ME and FLFox News · Nov 2
Connecticut Sen. Murphy discharged from hospital after stroke, goes to rehab facilityABC News · Nov 6

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 58 Vugol Vector D · Open

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

58OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Vugol Attention percentile95th

7-day momentum2 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres) · missing: incumbent, money, pulse, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-08 (6 days ago)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 fe64cf7e1245 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: Toss-up. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.