Begich +12
- Nicholas Begich III Republican: 47%
- Bill Hill Independent: 35%
AK2026
U.S. House - AK-AL · Alaska · 2026
General election · 3 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
Not yet decidedNo result has been reported for the Alaska At-Large House seat race yet. The state publishes its count on its official results page.
Checked against our results rows (state feeds and Wikipedia’s race tables). The polls and ratings further down were published before the election and are not results.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageU.S. House - AK-AL · Alaska
Nicholas Begich III
57%
Bill Hill
43%
Verified poll average · 2 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-01
Verified polls Begich leads Hill by 14.6 points in our average of verified polls.
2 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-10-01. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 68/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
Certified by the state, checked 2026-11-13.
Also on the certified ballot: James C. "Jim" McDermott (Libertarian)
Not on the certified ballot (1)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://www.elections.alaska.gov/candidates/?election=26genr
Begich +15
- Nicholas Begich III Republican: Incumbent57.3%
- Bill Hill Independent: 42.7%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-AK-00
Sourcehttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/03/polls/times-siena-alaska-poll-toplines.html
Retrieved2026-11-14
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
57.3% Nicholas Begich III42.7% Bill Hill
Nick Begich III (R)Bill Hill (I)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre R+57.3. Four times in five the result lands between R+50.6 and R+64.0; nine in ten between R+48.7 and R+65.9. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 0%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (2 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Begich III | $6,438,904 | $4,760,367 | $1,782,867 | 2026-10-14 |
| Bill Hill | $2,630,793 | $2,513,061 | $117,732 | 2026-10-14 |
| Matthew Damian Schultz | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-11-14 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Begich III | $199K | $2.9M | $8.2M |
| Bill Hill | $276K | $6.3M | $2.5M |
Biggest outside spenders
- Nicholas Begich III. For: Club for Growth Action $1.1M, DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS $508K, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $440K. Against: HMP $3.2M, WHEEL DOG PAC $2.7M, YOUR COMMUNITY PAC $1.3M
- Bill Hill. For: WHEEL DOG PAC $5.7M, CFFE PAC $239K, The Alaska Center $74K. Against: Club for Growth Action $1.5M, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $833K, Freedom Caucus Fund $122K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-02, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-07-29); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
All-party primary · official results
| Bill Hill won | 53,008 | 32.5% |
| Melanie A. Salazar | 1,181 | 0.7% |
| Lady Donna Dutchess | 715 | 0.4% |
| Matthew "Bronco" Williams | 632 | 0.4% |
| David Richey | 579 | 0.4% |
| David Ambrose II | 523 | 0.3% |
Democratic primary · official results
| Matt Schultz (withdrawn) | 13,149 | 8.1% |
| Eric Hafner won | 6,175 | 3.8% |
| John B. Williams (withdrew) | 4,413 | 2.7% |
| Yaquelin Reynoso (withdrew) | 2,928 | 1.8% |
Independent politician primary · official results
| Bill Hill won | 53,008 | 32.5% |
| Melanie A. Salazar | 1,181 | 0.7% |
| Lady Donna Dutchess | 715 | 0.4% |
| Matthew "Bronco" Williams | 632 | 0.4% |
| David Richey | 579 | 0.4% |
| David Ambrose II | 523 | 0.3% |
Libertarian primary · official results
| James C. "Jim" McDermott won | 1,951 | 1.2% |
| John E. Foddrill Sr. | 358 | 0.2% |
Republican primary · official results
| Nick Begich III (incumbent) won | 72,696 | 44.6% |
| Clay Strickland (withdrew) | 3,681 | 2.3% |
| Eddie Goldfarb | 943 | 0.6% |
Undeclared primary · official results
| Matthew "Bronco" Williams | 632 | 0.4% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-18, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (19)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Hypothetical matchup · AtlasIntel · 2026-10-28–2026-11-01 · n=522 · Nick Begich III (R) 47%,Bill Hill (N) 47%,Eric Hafner (D) 6%,Jim McDermott (L) 0% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2026-10-08–2026-10-16 · n=694 · Nick Begich III (R) 48%,Bill Hill (I) 42%,Eric Hafner (D) 5%,Jim McDermott (L) 1% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-10-01–2026-10-03 · n=1,512 · Nick Begich III (R) 50%,Bill Hill (I) 40%,Eric Hafner (D) 7%,Jim McDermott (L) 3%,RCV round 1% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · New York Times/Siena University · 2026-09-24–2026-10-01 · n=504 · Nick Begich III (R) 47%,Bill Hill (I) 35%,Eric Hafner (D) 8%,Jim McDermott (L) 5% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-09-08–2026-09-11 · n=800 · Nick Begich III (R) 45%,Bill Hill (I) 31%,Eric Hafner (D) 9%,Jim McDermott (L) 3% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Bullfinch Group · 2026-09-01–2026-09-06 · n=820 · Nick Begich III (R) 44%,Bill Hill (I) 37%,Eric Hafner (D) 7%,Jim McDermott (L) 2% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-08-20–2026-08-23 · n=1,872 · Nick Begich III (R) 51%,Bill Hill (I) 39%,John Williams (D) 6%,Eric Hafner (D) 5%,RCV round 1% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-08-02–2026-08-05 · n=1,371 · Nick Begich III (R) 48%,Bill Hill (I) 33%,Eric Hafner (D) 15%,Clay Strickland (R) 4%,RCV round 1% · release
- primary · The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center · 2026-07-13–2026-07-16 · n=705 · Nick Begich III (R) 46%,Matt Schultz (D) 32%,Bill Hill (I) 20% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · New York Times/Siena University · 2026-06-15–2026-06-29 · n=593 · Nick Begich III (R) 51%,Matt Schultz (D) 39% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-27 · n=452 · Nick Begich III (R) 55%,Generic Democrat (D) 45% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-27 · n=452 · Nick Begich III (R) 55%,Matt Schultz (D) 45% · release
- primary · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-05-14–2026-05-17 · n=1,401 · Nick Begich III (R) 47%,Matt Schultz (D) 28%,Bill Hill (I) 13%,John Williams (D) 5% · release
- primary · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-04-16–2026-04-19 · n=1,923 · Nick Begich III (R) 46%,Matt Schultz (D) 29%,Bill Hill (I) 11%,John Williams (D) 6%,Gavin Solomon (R) 4%,Bronco Williams (I) 4% · release
- primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-03-17–2026-03-20 · n=624 · Nick Begich III (R) 45%,Matt Schultz (D) 17%,Bill Hill (I) 13%,John Williams (D) 4% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-02-11–2026-02-12 · n=600 · Nick Begich III (R) 46%,Matt Schultz (D) 39% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-10-17–2025-10-23 · n=823 · Nick Begich III (R) 48%,Matt Schultz (D) 37% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-07-21–2025-07-27 · n=678 · Generic Republican 48%,Generic Democrat 38% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-02-28–2025-03-07 · n=1,000 · Nick Begich III (R) 46%,Mary Peltola (D) 46% · pollster's site · release
Mary Peltola (D) 46%In the news
- These House and Senate midterm races don't have winners yet
- At the Races: After the deluge
- ‘Red to Blue’ Democrats rake in more than GOP rivals in third quarter
- Trump went all the way to Alaska in a sign of just how close its Senate race may be
- A small-town Alaska fisherman has Republicans on the defensive as they try to keep US House majority
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 68 Vugol Vector R · Tilting
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
68OUT OF 100Moderate attention
Vugol Attention percentile94th
7-day momentum35 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: low
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, incumbent, money) · missing: prior, pres, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-13 (yesterday)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 75e218941750 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: R · Tilting. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.