U.S. House — AK-AL · Alaska · 2026
General election · 4 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Republican (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
5 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention — — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. First run pending. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
Certified by the state, checked 2026-09-29.
Also on the certified ballot: James C. "Jim" McDermott (Libertarian).
Not on the certified ballot (2)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://www.elections.alaska.gov/candidates/?election=26genr
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
5 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Begich III | $5,470,446 | $2,455,619 | $3,119,158 | 2026-07-29 |
| Bill Hill | $1,336,292 | $820,406 | $515,886 | 2026-07-29 |
| Mary Peltola | $152,305 | $232,791 | $3,483 | 2026-02-13 |
| Matthew Damian Schultz | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-09-29 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary · official results
| Matt Schultz (withdrawn) | 13,149 | 8.1% |
| Eric Hafner won | 6,175 | 3.8% |
| John B. Williams (withdrew) | 4,413 | 2.7% |
| Yaquelin Reynoso (withdrew) | 2,928 | 1.8% |
Independent politician primary · official results
| Bill Hill won | 53,008 | 32.5% |
| Melanie A. Salazar | 1,181 | 0.7% |
| Lady Donna Dutchess | 715 | 0.4% |
| Matthew "Bronco" Williams | 632 | 0.4% |
| David Richey | 579 | 0.4% |
| David Ambrose II | 523 | 0.3% |
Libertarian primary · official results
| James C. "Jim" McDermott won | 1,951 | 1.2% |
| John E. Foddrill Sr. | 358 | 0.2% |
Republican primary · official results
| Nick Begich III (incumbent) won | 72,696 | 44.6% |
| Clay Strickland (withdrew) | 3,681 | 2.3% |
| Eddie Goldfarb | 943 | 0.6% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-18 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (12)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Hypothetical matchup · Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-09-08–2026-09-11 · n=800 · Nick Begich III (R) 45%, Bill Hill (I) 31%, Eric Hafner (D) 9%, Jim McDermott (L) 3% · release
- primary · The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center · 2026-07-13–2026-07-16 · n=705 · Nick Begich III (R) 46%, Matt Schultz (D) 32%, Bill Hill (I) 20% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · New York Times/Siena University · 2026-06-15–2026-06-29 · n=593 · Nick Begich III (R) 51%, Matt Schultz (D) 39% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-27 · n=452 · Nick Begich III (R) 55%, Generic Democrat (D) 45% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-27 · n=452 · Nick Begich III (R) 55%, Matt Schultz (D) 45% · release
- primary · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-05-14–2026-05-17 · n=1,401 · Nick Begich III (R) 47%, Matt Schultz (D) 28%, Bill Hill (I) 13%, John Williams (D) 5% · release
- primary · Alaska Survey Research · 2026-04-16–2026-04-19 · n=1,923 · Nick Begich III (R) 46%, Matt Schultz (D) 29%, Bill Hill (I) 11%, John Williams (D) 6%, Gavin Solomon (R) 4%, Bronco Williams (I) 4% · release
- primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-03-17–2026-03-20 · n=624 · Nick Begich III (R) 45%, Matt Schultz (D) 17%, Bill Hill (I) 13%, John Williams (D) 4% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-02-11–2026-02-12 · n=600 · Nick Begich III (R) 46%, Matt Schultz (D) 39% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-10-17–2025-10-23 · n=823 · Nick Begich III (R) 48%, Matt Schultz (D) 37% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-07-21–2025-07-27 · n=678 · Generic Republican 48%, Generic Democrat 38% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-02-28–2025-03-07 · n=1,000 · Nick Begich III (R) 46%, Mary Peltola (D) 46% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention — Vector R · Tilting
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Signals for this race are being collected. The first Attention score lands after the nightly run reaches it; nothing is estimated in the meantime.
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: low
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: R · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.