U.S. House — WY-AL · Wyoming · 2026
General election · 4 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Republican (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 2 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated
News attention — — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. First run pending. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
Certified by the state, checked 2026-09-29.
Also on the certified ballot: Shawn Johnson (Libertarian).
Not on the certified ballot (7)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://sos.wyo.gov/Elections/Docs/2026/2026_WY_General_Election_Candidates.csv
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Gray | $1,621,197 | $1,381,051 | $240,146 | 2026-07-29 |
| David Giralt | $213,244 | $176,700 | $36,543 | 2026-07-29 |
| Dennis Bo Dean Biteman II | $115,130 | $86,533 | $28,597 | 2026-07-29 |
| Frank Chapman | $1,092,145 | $665,008 | $427,136 | 2026-07-29 |
| Jillian Balow | $180,501 | $75,538 | $104,963 | 2026-07-29 |
| Kevin Christensen | $35,952 | $26,219 | $9,732 | 2026-07-29 |
| Lisa Kinney | $17,946 | $15,936 | $2,010 | 2026-07-29 |
| Reid Rasner | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-09-29 |
| Stephen Friess | $3,282,745 | $2,485,619 | $797,126 | 2026-07-29 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Lisa F. Kinney won | 9,344 | 77.8% |
| Elena del Real | 2,660 | 22.2% |
Republican primary
| Chuck Gray won | 31,224 | 25.4% |
| Steve Friess | 25,059 | 20.4% |
| Kevin Christensen | 21,633 | 17.6% |
| Jillian Balow | 12,591 | 10.3% |
| Reid Rasner | 10,808 | 8.8% |
| David Giralt | 10,131 | 8.2% |
| Bo Biteman | 6,257 | 5.1% |
| Keith Goodenough | 3,343 | 2.7% |
| Richard Dodson | 1,777 | 1.4% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-18 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (3)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Republican primary · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2026-05-13–2026-05-16 · n=400 · Chuck Gray (R) 21%, Reid Rasner (R) 14%, Steve Friess (R) 10%, Jillian Balow (R) 8%, Bo Biteman (R) 7%, Kevin Christensen (R) 5%, David Giralt (R) 0% · release
- Republican primary · Peak Insights (partisan) · 2026-03-21–2026-03-22 · n=400 · Reid Rasner (R) 24%, Chuck Gray (R) 21%, Eric Barlow 6%, Bo Biteman (R) 5%, Kevin Christensen (R) 3%, David Giralt (R) 2% · release
- Republican primary · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2025-07-15–2025-07-17 · n=500 · Chuck Gray (R) 16%, Tara Nethercott 7%, Eric Barlow 6%, Bret Bien 6% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention — Vector R · Tilting
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Signals for this race are being collected. The first Attention score lands after the nightly run reaches it; nothing is estimated in the meantime.
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: low
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: R · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.