Home / Races / West Virginia / U.S. Senate

WV2026

U.S. Senate · West Virginia · 2026

Name: U.S. Senate, West Virginia — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running

Community poll

Model rating Leans Republican (Anchored) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention — — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. First run pending. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Shelley Moore CapitoU.S. Senate — WV · FEC S4WV00159Republican IncumbentOn the ballotFEC raised$6.5M Rachel Lee Fetty AndersonU.S. Senate — WV · FEC S6WV00188DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$50K

Ran in the primary (5)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.

Janet McNultyU.S. Senate — WV · FEC S4WV00407RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$7K Jeffrey Vincent KesslerU.S. Senate — WV · FEC S6WV00196DemocraticLost primaryFEC raisednot on file Rio PhillipsU.S. Senate — WV · FEC S6WV00170IndependentLost primaryFEC raised$14K Thomas Edward Willis IIU.S. Senate — WV · FEC S6WV00162RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$642K Zachary C ShrewsburyU.S. Senate — WV · FEC S4WV00357DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$516K

Other filers (1)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Jonathan Derrick EvansU.S. Senate — WV · FEC S6WV00147RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$1.1M

Ballot source: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/WV/126209/web.345435/#/detail/100?voteType=ALL&precinct=ALL&party=ALL

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no polls yet

No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Shelley Moore Capito Republican	$6,488,843	$4,582,173	$4,377,201	2026-06-30
Janet McNulty Republican	$6,880	$6,880	$0	2026-06-30
Jeffrey Vincent Kessler Democratic	$0	$0	$0	2026-09-30
Jonathan Derrick Evans Republican	$1,062,145	$1,001,214	$60,931	2024-12-31
Rachel Lee Fetty Anderson Democratic	$49,913	$34,780	$22,129	2026-06-30
Rio Phillips Independent	$13,776	$13,624	$152	2026-04-22
Thomas Edward Willis II Republican	$641,739	$641,739	$0	2026-07-10
Zachary C Shrewsbury Democratic	$515,587	$518,441	$-2,854	2026-06-30

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary · official results

Rachel Fetty Anderson won	30,930	33.2%
Jeff Kessler	25,228	27.0%
Zach Shrewsbury	15,076	16.2%
Thornton Cooper	11,826	12.7%
Rio Phillips	10,237	11.0%

Republican primary · official results

Shelley Moore Capito (incumbent) won	80,376	66.5%
Tom Willis	22,829	18.9%
Bryan McKinney	5,587	4.6%
David Purkey	5,040	4.2%
Alex Gaaserud	4,462	3.7%
Janet McNulty	2,597	2.1%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-05-12 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Signals (experimental)

Attention — Vector R · Anchored

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

Signals for this race are being collected. The first Attention score lands after the nightly run reaches it; nothing is estimated in the meantime.

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, pres, incumbent, money) · missing: prior, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-30 (today)

Vector component signals · estimated margin R +20.6Presidential lean of the seat (2024 R +42.7, national swing D +10.5)R +32.2Fundraising velocity (FEC)R +8.0IncumbencyR +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: R · Anchored (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.