WI2026

Governor · Wisconsin · 2026

Name: Governor, Wisconsin — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Democratic (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

6 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated

News attention 61/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

David CrowleyGovernor — WIDemocraticOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Tom TiffanyGovernor — WIRepublicanOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file

Other filers (2)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

David VarnamGovernor — WIRepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file Sarah GodlewskiGovernor — WI · FEC S2WI00359DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file

Ballot source: https://elections.wi.gov/sites/default/files/documents/August%202026%20Partisan%20Primary_Summary%20Results.pdf

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

6 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

David Crowley (D)Tom Tiffany (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary · official results

David Crowley won	315,413	39.8%
Francesca Hong	311,740	39.4%
Kelda Roys	59,394	7.5%
Joel Brennan	37,084	4.7%
Sara Rodriguez (withdrawn)	32,674	4.1%
Mandela Barnes (withdrawn)	32,435	4.1%
Missy Hughes (withdrawn)	3,230	0.4%
Brett Hulsey (write-in; withdrawn)	13	0.0%
Tim Reppen (write-in)	10	0.0%

Republican primary

Tom Tiffany won	468,019	95.3%
Andy Manske	22,573	4.6%
Dennis Williams (write-in)	17	0.0%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-08-11 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (32)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-08-04–2026-08-05 · n=753 · Francesca Hong 42%, David Crowley (D) 24% · release
Democratic primary · Marquette University · 2026-07-22–2026-07-27 · n=407 · Francesca Hong 38%, Mandela Barnes 16%, David Crowley (D) 7%, Kelda Roys 2%, Joel Brennan 2% · release
Democratic primary · State Navigate · 2026-07-23–2026-07-26 · n=1,085 · Francesca Hong 42%, Mandela Barnes 13%, David Crowley (D) 12%, Joel Brennan 4%, Kelda Roys 4%, Sara Rodriguez 3%, Missy Hughes 1% · release
Hypothetical matchup · RMG Research · 2026-07-20–2026-07-24 · n=800 · Francesca Hong (D) 44%, Tom Tiffany (R) 43% · release
Hypothetical matchup · RMG Research · 2026-07-20–2026-07-24 · n=800 · Mandela Barnes (D) 47%, Tom Tiffany (R) 42% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-20–2026-07-22 · n=708 · Francesca Hong 35%, Mandela Barnes 15%, David Crowley (D) 14%, Kelda Roys 5%, Joel Brennan 3% · release
Democratic primary · Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-07-18–2026-07-20 · n=621 · Francesca Hong 39%, Mandela Barnes 26%, David Crowley (D) 11%, Kelda Roys 7%, Joel Brennan 6% · release
Democratic primary · Wedgewood Polls · 2026-07-18–2026-07-20 · n=505 · Francesca Hong 38%, Mandela Barnes 30%, David Crowley (D) 9% · release
Democratic primary · Marquette University · 2026-07-08–2026-07-16 · n=430 · Francesca Hong 26%, Mandela Barnes 15%, Sara Rodriguez 11%, Joel Brennan 2%, Kelda Roys 1% · release
Republican primary · Marquette University · 2026-07-08–2026-07-16 · n=399 · Tom Tiffany (R) 67%, Andy Manske 2% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Marquette University · 2026-07-08–2026-07-16 · n=838 · Sara Rodriguez (D) 42%, Tom Tiffany (R) 41% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Marquette University · 2026-07-08–2026-07-16 · n=695 · Tom Tiffany (R) 44%, Francesca Hong (D) 44% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Marquette University · 2026-07-08–2026-07-16 · n=695 · Tom Tiffany (R) 44%, Joel Brennan (D) 43% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Marquette University · 2026-07-08–2026-07-16 · n=695 · Tom Tiffany (R) 44%, Kelda Roys (D) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Marquette University · 2026-07-08–2026-07-16 · n=695 · Mandela Barnes (D) 47%, Tom Tiffany (R) 42% · release
Democratic primary · Wedgewood Polls · 2026-07-02–2026-07-04 · n=413 · Francesca Hong 30%, Mandela Barnes 28%, Sara Rodriguez 19% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Wedgewood Polls · 2026-07-02–2026-07-04 · n=707 · Mandela Barnes (D) 48%, Tom Tiffany (R) 44% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Wedgewood Polls · 2026-07-02–2026-07-04 · n=707 · Francesca Hong (D) 47%, Tom Tiffany (R) 44% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Wedgewood Polls · 2026-07-02–2026-07-04 · n=707 · Sara Rodriguez (D) 47%, Tom Tiffany (R) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · TIPP Insights (partisan) · 2026-03-13–2026-03-19 · n=1,175 · Sara Rodriguez (D) 44%, Tom Tiffany (R) 41% · release
Hypothetical matchup · TIPP Insights (partisan) · 2026-03-13–2026-03-19 · n=1,175 · Mandela Barnes (D) 43%, Tom Tiffany (R) 41% · release
Hypothetical matchup · TIPP Insights (partisan) · 2026-03-13–2026-03-19 · n=1,175 · Tom Tiffany (R) 43%, Francesca Hong (D) 40% · release
Democratic primary · Marquette University · 2026-03-11–2026-03-18 · n=393 · Francesca Hong 14%, Mandela Barnes 11%, Sara Rodriguez 3%, David Crowley (D) 3%, Kelda Roys 1%, Missy Hughes 1% · release
Republican primary · Marquette University · 2026-03-11–2026-03-18 · n=396 · Tom Tiffany (R) 40%, Andy Manske 6% · release
Republican primary · Marquette University · 2026-02-11–2026-02-19 · n=371 · Tom Tiffany (R) 35%, Andy Manske 2% · release
Democratic primary · Marquette University · 2026-02-11–2026-02-19 · n=394 · Francesca Hong 11%, Mandela Barnes 10%, Sara Rodriguez 6%, David Crowley (D) 3%, Missy Hughes 2%, Joel Brennan 2%, Kelda Roys 1% · release
Democratic primary · TIPP Insights (partisan) · 2025-11-17–2025-11-21 · n=589 · Mandela Barnes 21%, Josh Kaul 8%, David Crowley (D) 6%, Sara Rodriguez 6%, Sarah Godlewski (D) 3% · release
Republican primary · TIPP Insights (partisan) · 2025-11-17–2025-11-21 · n=586 · Eric Hovde 25%, Tom Tiffany (R) 17%, Tim Michels 12%, Josh Schoemann 5% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Impact Research (partisan) · 2025-10-02–2025-10-08 · n=500 · Mandela Barnes (D) 51%, Tim Michels (R) 44% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Impact Research (partisan) · 2025-10-02–2025-10-08 · n=500 · Mandela Barnes (D) 50%, Tom Tiffany (R) 44% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Platform Communications · 2025-09-28–2025-09-30 · n=500 · Generic Republican 43%, Generic Democrat 40% · release
Republican primary · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2025-07-28–2025-07-31 · n=600 · Tom Tiffany (R) 40%, Josh Schoemann 13%, Bill Berrien 10% · release

In the news

Republicans dump cash into red states as they try to hold the line against Democrats in the midtermsABC News · Sep 23

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Signals (experimental)

Attention 61 Vector D · Tilting

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

61OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile99th

7-day momentum6 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, pulse) · missing: incumbent, money, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-29 (yesterday)

Vector component signals · estimated margin D +8.6Presidential lean of the seat (2024 R +0.9, national swing D +8.4)D +7.5Last result for this seat (2022 D +3.4, national swing D +8.5)D +11.9Attention shareD +0.5National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-29), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing × 0.8 for this office; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 95ea2a4898ac · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: D · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.