Who is ahead in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race?

Name: Governor, Wisconsin, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

David Crowley (D) won the WI Governor race. Crowley leads Tiffany by 5.8 points in our average of verified polls. Verified poll average · 4 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-22. Updated 2026-11-15.

Home / Races / Wisconsin / Governor

WI2026

Governor · Wisconsin · 2026

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

VecD 36 · TiltingTenD 87%Att60

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

David Crowley (D) won this race.

David CrowleyDemocraticWinnerno count in the source

Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Tom Tiffany (R).

Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 1:35 AM ET (revision)
Last updated: Nov 4, 10:47 AM ET
Source: Wikipedia (race summary table) · official results page

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

Race poll averageGovernor · Wisconsin

David Crowley

53%

Tom Tiffany

47%

Verified poll average · 4 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-22

D · Tiltingfrom verified polls

Verified polls Crowley leads Tiffany by 5.8 points in our average of verified polls.

4 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-10-22. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 60/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 8 days ago. How it works

On the Wisconsin ballot, Nov 3, 2026 Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Wisconsin? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

David CrowleyGovernor - WIDemocraticOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Tom TiffanyGovernor - WIRepublicanOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file

Other filers (2)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

David VarnamGovernor - WIRepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file Sarah GodlewskiGovernor - WI · FEC S2WI00359DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file

Ballot source: https://elections.wi.gov/sites/default/files/documents/August%202026%20Partisan%20Primary_Summary%20Results.pdf

Polling average · 4 verified pollsVerified

Crowley +5.8

David Crowley Democratic: 52.9%
Tom Tiffany Republican: 47.1%

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

4 verified polls

Latest verified pollVerified

Crowley +7Within margin of error

David Crowley Democratic: 51%
Tom Tiffany Republican: 44%

Undecided 4%

Cite / verify

Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-WI-GOV

Sourcehttps://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/10/28/mlsp92-press-release/

Retrieved2026-11-15

Polling average Updates as polls arrive

4 verified inputs

52.9% David Crowley47.1% Tom Tiffany

David Crowley (D)Tom Tiffany (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Vugol Tensor

How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction

tensor-1.0.0

Centre D+5.8. Four times in five the result lands between D+12.5 and R+0.9; nine in ten between D+14.4 and R+2.8. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 87%.

Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (4 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.

Democratic primary · official results

David Crowley won	315,413	39.8%
Francesca Hong	311,740	39.4%
Kelda Roys	59,394	7.5%
Joel Brennan	37,084	4.7%
Sara Rodriguez (withdrawn)	32,674	4.1%
Mandela Barnes (withdrawn)	32,435	4.1%
Missy Hughes (withdrawn)	3,230	0.4%
Brett Hulsey (write-in; withdrawn)	13	0.0%
Tim Reppen (write-in)	10	0.0%

Republican primary

Tom Tiffany won	468,019	95.3%
Andy Manske	22,573	4.6%
Dennis Williams (write-in)	17	0.0%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-08-11, Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (32)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-08-04–2026-08-05 · n=753 · Francesca Hong 42%,David Crowley (D) 24% · release
Democratic primary · Marquette University · 2026-07-22–2026-07-27 · n=407 · Francesca Hong 38%,Mandela Barnes 16%,David Crowley (D) 7%,Kelda Roys 2%,Joel Brennan 2% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · State Navigate · 2026-07-23–2026-07-26 · n=1,085 · Francesca Hong 42%,Mandela Barnes 13%,David Crowley (D) 12%,Joel Brennan 4%,Kelda Roys 4%,Sara Rodriguez 3%,Missy Hughes 1% · release
Hypothetical matchup · RMG Research · 2026-07-20–2026-07-24 · n=800 · Francesca Hong (D) 44%,Tom Tiffany (R) 43% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · RMG Research · 2026-07-20–2026-07-24 · n=800 · Mandela Barnes (D) 47%,Tom Tiffany (R) 42% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-20–2026-07-22 · n=708 · Francesca Hong 35%,Mandela Barnes 15%,David Crowley (D) 14%,Kelda Roys 5%,Joel Brennan 3% · release
Democratic primary · Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-07-18–2026-07-20 · n=621 · Francesca Hong 39%,Mandela Barnes 26%,David Crowley (D) 11%,Kelda Roys 7%,Joel Brennan 6% · release
Democratic primary · Wedgewood Polls · 2026-07-18–2026-07-20 · n=505 · Francesca Hong 38%,Mandela Barnes 30%,David Crowley (D) 9% · release
Democratic primary · Marquette University · 2026-07-08–2026-07-16 · n=430 · Francesca Hong 26%,Mandela Barnes 15%,Sara Rodriguez 11%,Joel Brennan 2%,Kelda Roys 1% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Marquette University · 2026-07-08–2026-07-16 · n=399 · Tom Tiffany (R) 67%,Andy Manske 2% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Marquette University · 2026-07-08–2026-07-16 · n=838 · Sara Rodriguez (D) 42%,Tom Tiffany (R) 41% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Marquette University · 2026-07-08–2026-07-16 · n=695 · Tom Tiffany (R) 44%,Francesca Hong (D) 44% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Marquette University · 2026-07-08–2026-07-16 · n=695 · Tom Tiffany (R) 44%,Joel Brennan (D) 43% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Marquette University · 2026-07-08–2026-07-16 · n=695 · Tom Tiffany (R) 44%,Kelda Roys (D) 42% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Marquette University · 2026-07-08–2026-07-16 · n=695 · Mandela Barnes (D) 47%,Tom Tiffany (R) 42% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Wedgewood Polls · 2026-07-02–2026-07-04 · n=413 · Francesca Hong 30%,Mandela Barnes 28%,Sara Rodriguez 19% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Wedgewood Polls · 2026-07-02–2026-07-04 · n=707 · Mandela Barnes (D) 48%,Tom Tiffany (R) 44% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Wedgewood Polls · 2026-07-02–2026-07-04 · n=707 · Francesca Hong (D) 47%,Tom Tiffany (R) 44% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Wedgewood Polls · 2026-07-02–2026-07-04 · n=707 · Sara Rodriguez (D) 47%,Tom Tiffany (R) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · TIPP Insights (partisan) · 2026-03-13–2026-03-19 · n=1,175 · Sara Rodriguez (D) 44%,Tom Tiffany (R) 41% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · TIPP Insights (partisan) · 2026-03-13–2026-03-19 · n=1,175 · Mandela Barnes (D) 43%,Tom Tiffany (R) 41% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · TIPP Insights (partisan) · 2026-03-13–2026-03-19 · n=1,175 · Tom Tiffany (R) 43%,Francesca Hong (D) 40% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Marquette University · 2026-03-11–2026-03-18 · n=393 · Francesca Hong 14%,Mandela Barnes 11%,Sara Rodriguez 3%,David Crowley (D) 3%,Kelda Roys 1%,Missy Hughes 1% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Marquette University · 2026-03-11–2026-03-18 · n=396 · Tom Tiffany (R) 40%,Andy Manske 6% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Marquette University · 2026-02-11–2026-02-19 · n=371 · Tom Tiffany (R) 35%,Andy Manske 2% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Marquette University · 2026-02-11–2026-02-19 · n=394 · Francesca Hong 11%,Mandela Barnes 10%,Sara Rodriguez 6%,David Crowley (D) 3%,Missy Hughes 2%,Joel Brennan 2%,Kelda Roys 1% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · TIPP Insights (partisan) · 2025-11-17–2025-11-21 · n=589 · Mandela Barnes 21%,Josh Kaul 8%,David Crowley (D) 6%,Sara Rodriguez 6%,Sarah Godlewski (D) 3% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · TIPP Insights (partisan) · 2025-11-17–2025-11-21 · n=586 · Eric Hovde 25%,Tom Tiffany (R) 17%,Tim Michels 12%,Josh Schoemann 5% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Impact Research (partisan) · 2025-10-02–2025-10-08 · n=500 · Mandela Barnes (D) 51%,Tim Michels (R) 44% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Impact Research (partisan) · 2025-10-02–2025-10-08 · n=500 · Mandela Barnes (D) 50%,Tom Tiffany (R) 44% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Platform Communications · 2025-09-28–2025-09-30 · n=500 · Generic Republican 43%,Generic Democrat 40% · release
Republican primary · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2025-07-28–2025-07-31 · n=600 · Tom Tiffany (R) 40%,Josh Schoemann 13%,Bill Berrien 10% · release

In the news

Redistricting battle could spill into 2028Roll Call · Nov 9
At 26, Sean Duffy's son-in-law is headed to Congress as its youngest memberFox News · Nov 5
Black candidates for governor make history with midterm victoriesCBS News · Nov 4
The biggest winners, losers and surprises from the 2026 midtermsDeseret News · Nov 5
Meet the history-makers of the 120th CongressRoll Call · Nov 4
Democrats clinch a majority of governorships for first time in 16 yearsNBC News · Nov 4
These members of Congress are heading to the governor’s mansionRoll Call · Nov 4
Tuesday’s elections bring historic first for Black governorsNBC News · Nov 3
An hour-by-hour guide to watching the 2026 midterms, and when we’ll know who controls CongressNew York Post · Nov 3
Here's what the U.S. is voting on today for the 2026 midterm electionsCBS News · Nov 3

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 60 Vugol Vector D · Tilting

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

60OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Vugol Attention percentile99th

7-day momentum3 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, pulse) · missing: incumbent, money, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-07 (8 days ago)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 e48e8872ece4 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: D · Tilting. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.