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VT2026

U.S. House — VT-AL · Vermont · 2026

Name: U.S. House — VT-AL, Vermont — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 6 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running

Community poll

Model rating Leans Democratic (Anchored) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

4 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 5 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 36/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

Certified by the state, checked 2026-09-29.

Rebecca 'Becca' BalintU.S. House — VT-AL · FEC H2VT01076Democratic IncumbentOn the ballotFEC raised$956K Gerald MalloyU.S. House — VT-AL · FEC H6VT01085RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$58K

Also on the certified ballot: Phoenix K. Altair (Independent), Ryan P. Walton (Independent), Suzanne "Suz" Seymour (Independent).

Not on the certified ballot (1)

Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.

C. Mark CoesterU.S. House — VT-AL · FEC H4VT01056RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$36K

Official source: https://outside.vermont.gov/dept/sos/Elections_Division/election_info_resources/candidates/2026_general_election_qualified_candidates.xlsx

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

4 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

Becca Balint (D)Gerald Malloy (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Rebecca 'Becca' Balint Democratic	$956,339	$475,768	$626,332	2026-07-22
C. Mark Coester Republican	$36,039	$17,760	$9,208	2026-07-22
Gerald Malloy Republican	$58,280	$38,573	$19,707	2026-07-23

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary · official results

Becca Balint (incumbent) won	79,679	98.4%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-08-11 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (4)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-07-15–2026-07-20 · n=220 · Gerald Malloy (R) 58%, Mark Coester (R) 6% · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-07-15–2026-07-20 · n=954 · Becca Balint (D) 64%, Mark Coester (R) 25% · release
Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=237 · Gerald Malloy (R) 48%, Mark Coester (R) 19% · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=887 · Becca Balint (D) 57%, Mark Coester (R) 26% · release

Signals (experimental)

Attention 36 Vector D · Anchored

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

36OUT OF 100Low attention

Attention percentile26th

7-day momentum46 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness5 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, incumbent, money) · missing: pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-27 (3 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin D +34.1Presidential lean of the seat (2024 D +32.8, national swing D +10.5)D +43.3Fundraising velocity (FEC)D +8.0Last result for this seat (2024 D +35.3, national swing D +10.5)D +45.8IncumbencyD +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 16d19399fad1 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: D · Anchored (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.