Governor · Texas · 2026
General election · 3 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Republican (Open) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
36 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 5 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 55/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
Certified by the state on 2026-08-28, checked 2026-09-29.
Not on the certified ballot (4)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/forms/2026-ballot-cert.pdf
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
36 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Gina Hinojosa won | 1,289,576 | 58.5% |
| Chris Bell | 216,787 | 9.8% |
| Angela "Tia Angie" Villescaz | 150,752 | 6.8% |
| Patricia Abrego | 128,632 | 5.8% |
| Andrew White (withdrawn) | 117,392 | 5.3% |
| Bobby Cole | 112,675 | 5.1% |
| Jose Navarro Balbuena | 65,826 | 3.0% |
| Carlton W. Hart | 63,278 | 2.9% |
| Zach Vance | 58,753 | 2.7% |
Republican primary
| Greg Abbott (incumbent) won | 1,764,924 | 81.8% |
| Pete "Doc" Chambers | 240,640 | 11.2% |
| Evelyn Brooks | 44,142 | 2.0% |
| Arturo Espinosa | 23,444 | 1.1% |
| Charles Andrew Crouch | 15,405 | 0.7% |
| Kenneth Hyde | 14,941 | 0.7% |
| Nathaniel Welch | 12,057 | 0.6% |
| Mark V. Goloby | 10,991 | 0.5% |
| Stephen Samuelson | 10,864 | 0.5% |
| Ronnie Tullos | 10,352 | 0.5% |
| R.F. "Bob" Achgill | 9,119 | 0.4% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-03-03 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-04-11 — Convention: U.S. House — LIB
- 2026-05-26 — Runoff: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (10)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Democratic primary · YouGov · 2026-02-26–2026-03-02 · n=2,342 · Gina Hinojosa (D) 55%, Bobby Cole 5%, Chris Bell 4%, Angela Villescaz 2% · release
- Republican primary · YouGov · 2026-02-26–2026-03-02 · n=1,668 · Greg Abbott (R) 72%, Pete Chambers 11%, Evelyn Brooks 2%, Mark V. Goloby 0%, Arturo Espinosa 0% · release
- Democratic primary · Blueprint Polling (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=472 · Gina Hinojosa (D) 61%, Chris Bell 4%, Bobby Cole 3%, Angela Villescaz 2%, Andrew White 1% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · UT Tyler · 2026-02-13–2026-02-22 · n=1,117 · Greg Abbott (R) 51%, Chris Bell (D) 39% · release
- Republican primary · University of Texas/ Texas Politics Project · 2026-02-02–2026-02-16 · n=360 · Greg Abbott (R) 91%, Pete Chambers 5%, Mark V. Goloby 1%, Arturo Espinosa 1%, Evelyn Brooks 1% · release
- Democratic primary · University of Texas/ Texas Politics Project · 2026-02-02–2026-02-16 · n=369 · Gina Hinojosa (D) 76%, Bobby Cole 9%, Chris Bell 4%, Angela Villescaz 3% · release
- Democratic primary · University of Houston/YouGov · 2026-01-20–2026-01-31 · n=550 · Gina Hinojosa (D) 37%, Chris Bell 7%, Bobby Cole 6%, Angela Villescaz 4% · release
- Democratic primary · Slingshot Strategies (partisan) · 2026-01-14–2026-01-21 · n=1,290 · Gina Hinojosa (D) 29%, Chris Bell 4%, Bobby Cole 3% · release
- Democratic primary · Texas Southern University · 2025-12-09–2025-12-11 · n=1,600 · Gina Hinojosa (D) 41%, Andrew White 6%, Chris Bell 5%, Bobby Cole 3%, Angela Villescaz 1% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Texas Public Opinion Research · 2025-08-27–2025-08-29 · n=843 · Generic Republican 49%, Generic Democrat 43% · release
In the news
- Texas governor declares emergency to bring down fuel prices
- One normally quiet Texas race shows 2026 will be a ‘wipe out’ for Republicans, Dem stategist claims
- Texas voters have plenty to say about whether Lone Star State could turn blue
- Muslim Americans push back as Republican politicians stoke anti-Sharia rhetoric ahead of election
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Signals (experimental)
Attention 55 Vector R · Open
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 275702781add · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: Toss-up (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.