Hinojosa +1Within margin of error
- Gina Hinojosa Democratic: 48%
- Greg Abbott Republican: 47%
Other 0% · Undecided 6%
TX2026
Governor · Texas · 2026
General election · 3 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledFlip: R to DGina Hinojosa (D) won this race with 52.8% of the vote, 7.1 points ahead, defeating incumbent Greg Abbott.
- Gina HinojosaDemocraticWinner52.8%5,230,789 votes
- Greg AbbottRepublicanIncumbent45.7%4,524,527 votes
- Pat DixonLibertarian1.5%148,078 votes
- Margin
- 706,262 votes (7.1 points)
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 11:09 PM ET (revision)
- Seat
- Changed party: held by Greg Abbott (R)
- Last updated
- Nov 14, 6:07 AM ET
- Source
- Wikipedia · official results page
Called it: miss Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageGovernor · Texas
Gina Hinojosa
49%
Greg Abbott
50%
Verified poll average · 12 polls · newest poll ended 2026-11-011% other
Verified polls Abbott leads Hinojosa by 0.4 points in our average of verified polls.
12 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-11-01. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 2/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 6 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
Certified by the state on 2026-08-28, checked 2026-11-14.
Not on the certified ballot (4)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/forms/2026-ballot-cert.pdf
Tied
- Gina Hinojosa Democratic: 49.2%
- Greg Abbott Republican: Incumbent49.6%
- Pat Dixon Libertarian: 1.2%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-TX-GOV
Sourcehttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-tx-poll-toplines.html
Retrieved2026-11-14
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
49.6% Greg Abbott49.2% Gina Hinojosa1.2% Pat Dixon
Greg Abbott (R)Gina Hinojosa (D)Pat Dixon (L)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre R+0.4. Four times in five the result lands between D+6.3 and R+7.1; nine in ten between D+8.2 and R+9.0. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 47%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (12 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Results
Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.
general election · state results feed, unofficial
| Gina Hinojosa won | 5,232,679 | 52.8% |
| Gina Hinojosa won | 5,230,789 | 52.8% |
| Greg Abbott (incumbent) | 4,525,947 | 45.7% |
| Greg Abbott (incumbent) | 4,524,527 | 45.7% |
| Pat Dixon | 148,140 | 1.5% |
| Pat Dixon | 148,078 | 1.5% |
Gina Hinojosa leads by 706,262 votes. 100% of reporting units counted.
Democratic primary
| Gina Hinojosa won | 1,289,576 | 58.5% |
| Chris Bell | 216,787 | 9.8% |
| Angela "Tia Angie" Villescaz | 150,752 | 6.8% |
| Patricia Abrego | 128,632 | 5.8% |
| Andrew White (withdrawn) | 117,392 | 5.3% |
| Bobby Cole | 112,675 | 5.1% |
| Jose Navarro Balbuena | 65,826 | 3.0% |
| Carlton W. Hart | 63,278 | 2.9% |
| Zach Vance | 58,753 | 2.7% |
Republican primary
| Greg Abbott (incumbent) won | 1,764,924 | 81.8% |
| Pete "Doc" Chambers | 240,640 | 11.2% |
| Evelyn Brooks | 44,142 | 2.0% |
| Arturo Espinosa | 23,444 | 1.1% |
| Charles Andrew Crouch | 15,405 | 0.7% |
| Kenneth Hyde | 14,941 | 0.7% |
| Nathaniel Welch | 12,057 | 0.6% |
| Mark V. Goloby | 10,991 | 0.5% |
| Stephen Samuelson | 10,864 | 0.5% |
| Ronnie Tullos | 10,352 | 0.5% |
| R.F. "Bob" Achgill | 9,119 | 0.4% |
Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-04 · parser state-feed-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-03-03, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-04-11, Convention: U.S. House, LIB
- 2026-05-26, Runoff: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (10)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Democratic primary · YouGov · 2026-02-26–2026-03-02 · n=2,342 · Gina Hinojosa (D) 55%,Bobby Cole 5%,Chris Bell 4%,Angela Villescaz 2% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · YouGov · 2026-02-26–2026-03-02 · n=1,668 · Greg Abbott (R) 72%,Pete Chambers 11%,Evelyn Brooks 2%,Mark V. Goloby 0%,Arturo Espinosa 0% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Blueprint Polling (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=472 · Gina Hinojosa (D) 61%,Chris Bell 4%,Bobby Cole 3%,Angela Villescaz 2%,Andrew White 1% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · UT Tyler · 2026-02-13–2026-02-22 · n=1,117 · Greg Abbott (R) 51%,Chris Bell (D) 39% · release
- Republican primary · University of Texas/ Texas Politics Project · 2026-02-02–2026-02-16 · n=360 · Greg Abbott (R) 91%,Pete Chambers 5%,Mark V. Goloby 1%,Arturo Espinosa 1%,Evelyn Brooks 1% · release
- Democratic primary · University of Texas/ Texas Politics Project · 2026-02-02–2026-02-16 · n=369 · Gina Hinojosa (D) 76%,Bobby Cole 9%,Chris Bell 4%,Angela Villescaz 3% · release
- Democratic primary · University of Houston/YouGov · 2026-01-20–2026-01-31 · n=550 · Gina Hinojosa (D) 37%,Chris Bell 7%,Bobby Cole 6%,Angela Villescaz 4% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Slingshot Strategies (partisan) · 2026-01-14–2026-01-21 · n=1,290 · Gina Hinojosa (D) 29%,Chris Bell 4%,Bobby Cole 3% · release
- Democratic primary · Texas Southern University · 2025-12-09–2025-12-11 · n=1,600 · Gina Hinojosa (D) 41%,Andrew White 6%,Chris Bell 5%,Bobby Cole 3%,Angela Villescaz 1% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Texas Public Opinion Research · 2025-08-27–2025-08-29 · n=843 · Generic Republican 49%,Generic Democrat 43% · release
In the news
- Incoming GOP congressman backs halting all immigration to US, warns about Sharia law in Texas
- How Hinojosa’s win in Texas could bite Beshear
- Midterm results deliver ‘youth quake’ to American politics
- Dan Patrick concedes Texas ‘turned purple’ after Democrats’ historic blue wave
- Sen.-elect James Talarico kicks off ‘SNL’ days after historic win in Texas
- Watch live: Hinojosa speaks after midterm win against Abbott
- Texas Democrats put DEI back on agenda after sweeping to power
- What to know about Gina Hinojosa, Texas' first Latina governor-elect
- Voters send a resounding message against data centers
- Dem Scott Colom defeats Mississippi Sen. Hyde-Smith after weeklong nailbiter
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 2 Vugol Vector R · Open
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
2OUT OF 100Low attention
Vugol Attention percentile0th
7-day momentum7 / 100
Source breadth0% of tracked
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, incumbent) · missing: money, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-08 (6 days ago)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 327e1556ce0a · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: Toss-up. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.