Vugol MeA source on every number
Search WatchlistSee plans Sign in
Menu

State hubs

Home / Races / Texas / U.S. House - TX-35 · See all Texas races
TX2026

U.S. House - TX-35 · Texas · 2026

General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

VecD 100 · AnchoredTenD 65%Att5

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Johnny C. Garcia (D) won this race with 55.4% of the vote, 10.9 points ahead.

  • Johnny C. GarciaDemocraticWinner55.4%139,984 votes
  • Carlos De La CruzRepublican44.6%112,574 votes
Margin
27,410 votes (10.9 points)
Called
Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 9:58 AM ET (revision)
Last updated
Nov 14, 9:03 AM ET

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

Race poll averageU.S. House - TX-35 · Texas
Johnny Garcia
D
51%
Carlos de la Cruz Jr.
R
49%
Verified poll average · 1 poll · newest poll ended 2026-10-14

Verified polls Garcia leads de la Cruz by 2.0 points in our average of verified polls.

1 verified poll averaged, newest ended 2026-10-14. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 5/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works

On the Texas ballot, Nov 3, 2026 U.S. Representative, District 35, 2 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Texas? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (2)

Certified by the state on 2026-08-28, checked 2026-11-13.

Carlos de la Cruz Jr.U.S. House - TX-35 · FEC H6TX35087RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$2.0MJohnny GarciaU.S. House - TX-35 · FEC H6TX35095DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$2.2M

Not on the certified ballot (10)

Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.

Jay Commander FurmanU.S. House - TX-35 · FEC H4TX28129RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$463KJohn LiraU.S. House - TX-35 · FEC H6TX35079DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$145KJohn LujanU.S. House - TX-35 · FEC H6TX35053RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$758KJoshua CortezU.S. House - TX-35 · FEC H6TX34072RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$265KMaureen GalindoU.S. House - TX-35 · FEC H6TX35103DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$40KRandal Haskel AdamsU.S. House - TX-35 · FEC H6TX35111RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$24KRyan P KrauseU.S. House - TX-35 · FEC H6TX35020RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$238KSteven William WrightU.S. House - TX-35 · FEC H4TX35025RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$25KVanessa F. Hicks-CallawayU.S. House - TX-35 · FEC H6TX35137RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$6KWhitney Masterson-MoyesU.S. House - TX-35 · FEC H6TX35061DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$63K

Official source: https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/forms/2026-ballot-cert.pdf

Polling average · 1 verified pollVerified
Garcia +2

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

1 verified poll

Cite / verify

Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-TX-35
Sourcehttps://pollvault.substack.com/p/levee-math
Retrieved2026-11-14

Polling average Updates as polls arrive

1 verified input
51.0% Johnny Garcia49.0% Carlos de la Cruz Jr.
25436090d60d30dtodayNormington Petts (quarantined) · 2026-08-31 · Carlos De La Cruz (R) 45.0%Normington Petts (quarantined) · 2026-10-14 · Carlos De La Cruz (R) 45.0%Emerson College (verified) · 2026-10-14 · Carlos De La Cruz (R) 49.0%Washington Post/Schar School (quarantined) · 2026-10-19 · Carlos De La Cruz (R) 48.0%Normington Petts (quarantined) · 2026-08-31 · Johnny Garcia (D) 44.0%Normington Petts (quarantined) · 2026-10-14 · Johnny Garcia (D) 47.0%Emerson College (verified) · 2026-10-14 · Johnny Garcia (D) 51.0%Washington Post/Schar School (quarantined) · 2026-10-19 · Johnny Garcia (D) 47.0%Live polling average · Johnny Garcia (D) 51.0%Live polling average · Carlos De La Cruz (R) 49.0%
Carlos De La Cruz (R)Johnny Garcia (D)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Vugol Tensor

How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction

tensor-1.0.0

Centre D+2.0. Four times in five the result lands between D+8.7 and R+4.7; nine in ten between D+10.6 and R+6.6. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 65%.

Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (1 verified poll), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handThrough
Carlos de la Cruz Jr. Republican$2,021,118$1,708,510$312,6072026-10-14
Jay Commander Furman Republican$462,556$466,908$5712026-09-30
John Lira Democratic$144,967$144,967$02026-06-30
John Lujan Republican$757,513$746,326$11,1872026-09-30
Johnny Garcia Democratic$2,201,579$2,052,076$149,5032026-10-14
Joshua Cortez Republican$265,463$265,463$02026-06-30
Maureen Galindo Democratic$40,362$28,626$15,8442026-06-30
Randal Haskel Adams Republican$24,493$24,493$02026-07-08
Ryan P Krause Republican$237,646$237,646$02026-06-30
Steven William Wright Republican$25,375$43,024$02026-04-15
Vanessa F. Hicks-Callaway Republican$6,394$5,114$-4,2062026-04-15
Whitney Masterson-Moyes Democratic$62,724$61,368$1,3562026-09-30

Ad spending (FEC)

What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.

CandidateCampaign's own adsOutside groups forOutside groups against
Johnny Garcia Democratic$169K+ $15K mail · through 2026-06-30$6.9M$5.9M ads · 13 groups$8.8M$8.2M ads · 5 groups
Carlos de la Cruz Jr. Republican$245K+ $123K mail · through 2026-06-30$4.4M$3.6M ads · 8 groups$5.3M$4.9M ads · 6 groups
Maureen Galindo Democratic$290+ $1,257 mail · through 2026-06-30$887K$773K ads · 1 group$699K$688K ads · 3 groups
John Lujan Republican$37K+ $595 mail · through 2026-06-30$245K$191K ads · 3 groupsnone reported
Jay Commander Furman Republican$164K+ $35K mail · through 2026-03-31none reportednone reported
Joshua Cortez Republican$52Kthrough 2026-05-04none reportednone reported

Biggest outside spenders

  • Johnny Garcia. For: Project 218 $3.9M, BDA PAC $775K, Somos PAC $561K. Against: NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $8.4M, America PAC $271K, LEAD LEFT PAC $114K
  • Carlos de la Cruz Jr.. For: NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $1.9M, DEFENDING OUR VALUES PAC $1.5M, DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS $616K. Against: HMP $4.7M, YOUR COMMUNITY PAC $502K, BOLD America $101K
  • Maureen Galindo. For: LEAD LEFT PAC $887K. Against: BDA PAC $475K, SD 2026 $210K, DMFI PAC $14K
  • John Lujan. For: GOPAC Election Fund $177K, PROTECT AND SERVE PAC $41K, Charter Schools Action PAC $27K

Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-10-29, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-06-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.

Results

Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.

general election · state results feed, unofficial

Johnny C. Garcia139,98455.4%
Carlos De La Cruz112,57444.6%

Johnny C. Garcia leads by 27,410 votes. 100% of reporting units counted.

Democratic primary runoff

Johnny Garcia won13,01763.8%
Maureen Galindo7,37436.2%

Republican primary runoff

Carlos De La Cruz won18,92757.6%
John Lujan13,92542.4%

Democratic primary

Maureen Galindo advanced16,00929.2%
Johnny Garcia advanced14,83627.0%
Whitney Masterson-Moyes12,82523.4%
John Lira11,18620.4%

Republican primary

John Lujan advanced15,53033.0%
Carlos De La Cruz advanced12,63726.8%
Jay Furman6,18213.1%
Ryan Krause3,9868.5%
Josh Cortez2,0524.4%
Steven Wright1,8894.0%
Randy Adams1,7543.7%
Vanessa Hicks-Callaway1,6763.6%
Mark Eberwine7521.6%
Rod Lindsch3650.8%
Larry La Rose3060.6%

Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser state-feed-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

  • 2026-03-03, Primary election: U.S. House
  • 2026-04-11, Convention: U.S. House, LIB
  • 2026-05-26, Runoff: U.S. House
  • 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

In the news

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 5 Vugol Vector D · Anchored

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0
5OUT OF 100Low attention
Vugol Attention percentile0th
7-day momentum17 / 100
Source breadth0% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, money) · missing: pres, incumbent, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-13 (yesterday)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Vugol Vector band: D · Anchored. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector
Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor
How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention
How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse
Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.