Home / Races / Texas / U.S. House — TX-33

TX2026

U.S. House — TX-33 · Texas · 2026

Name: U.S. House — TX-33, Texas — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Democratic (Anchored) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 52/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works

On the November ballot (1)

Certified by the state on 2026-08-28, checked 2026-09-30.

Colin AllredU.S. House — TX-33 · FEC H8TX32098DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$7.4M

Also on the certified ballot: Patrick David Gillespie (Republican).

Not on the certified ballot (3)

Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.

Julie JohnsonU.S. House — TX-33 · FEC H4TX32089DemocraticLost primaryFEC raisednot on file Kurt SchwabU.S. House — TX-33 · FEC H6TX33041RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$13K Zeeshan HafeezU.S. House — TX-33 · FEC H6TX33074DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$410K

Official source: https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/forms/2026-ballot-cert.pdf

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no polls yet

No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Colin Allred Democratic	$7,431,941	$7,272,054	$159,887	2026-06-30
Julie Johnson Democratic	$0	$0	$0	2026-09-30
Kurt Schwab Republican	$13,215	$12,345	$870	2026-02-11
Zeeshan Hafeez Democratic	$409,935	$324,472	$85,463	2026-02-11

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary runoff

Colin Allred won	11,354	54.0%
Julie Johnson (incumbent)	9,677	46.0%

Republican primary runoff

Patrick Gillespie won	5,020	57.1%
John Sims	3,771	42.9%

Democratic primary

Colin Allred advanced	31,482	44.0%
Julie Johnson (incumbent) advanced	23,770	33.2%
Carlos Quintanilla	10,276	14.3%
Zeeshan Hafeez	6,083	8.5%

Republican primary

Patrick Gillespie advanced	4,654	35.5%
John Sims advanced	2,922	22.3%
Monte Mitchell	2,850	21.7%
Kurt Schwab	2,692	20.5%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-03-03 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-04-11 — Convention: U.S. House — LIB
2026-05-26 — Runoff: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (1)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2025-12-14–2025-12-17 · n=500 · Colin Allred (D) 58%, Julie Johnson (D) 30% · release

Signals (experimental)

Attention 52 Vector D · Anchored

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

52OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile84th

7-day momentum1 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, money) · missing: pres, incumbent, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-29 (yesterday)

Vector component signals · estimated margin D +39.2Fundraising velocity (FEC)D +8.0Last result for this seat (2024 D +37.6, national swing D +10.5)D +48.1National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 07d67ce9ca60 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: D · Anchored (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.