U.S. House — TX-28 · Texas · 2026
General election · 3 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Democratic (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
1 poll on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated
News attention 15/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 11 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
Certified by the state on 2026-08-28, checked 2026-09-29.
Also on the certified ballot: Marlón Durán (Green).
Not on the certified ballot (2)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/forms/2026-ballot-cert.pdf
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
1 poll on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry R. Cuellar | $2,231,952 | $1,150,307 | $1,129,604 | 2026-06-30 |
| Juan Esparza | $32,404 | $32,404 | $0 | 2025-08-13 |
| Ricardo Villarreal | $67,967 | $46,437 | $21,529 | 2026-06-30 |
| Tano Tijerina | $1,399,881 | $631,693 | $768,188 | 2026-06-30 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Henry Cuellar (incumbent) won | 39,228 | 58.1% |
| Ricardo Villarreal | 24,968 | 37.0% |
| Andrew Vantine | 3,375 | 5.0% |
Republican primary
| Tano Tijerina won | 12,514 | 74.3% |
| Eileen Day | 4,319 | 25.7% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-03-03 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-04-11 — Convention: U.S. House — LIB
- 2026-05-26 — Runoff: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
In the news
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Signals (experimental)
Attention 15 Vector D · Held
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 0d9d624f584f · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: D · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.