Result
CalledMichael Cloud (R) won this race with 51.2% of the vote, 2.3 points ahead.
- Michael CloudRepublicanIncumbentWinner51.2%144,467 votes
- Tanya LloydDemocratic48.8%137,927 votes
Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Dan McQueen (I).
- Margin
- 6,540 votes (2.3 points)
- Reporting
- 100% of the count in
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 5:17 PM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 7, 8:53 AM ET
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is R. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
No poll available No verified poll yet, and not enough inputs to rate this race.
No polls on file for this race. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention -, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. First run pending. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
Certified by the state on 2026-08-28, checked 2026-11-14.
Not on the certified ballot (3)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/forms/2026-ballot-cert.pdf
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
No verified poll has been published for this race.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Cloud | $1,219,653 | $1,080,726 | $275,804 | 2026-10-14 |
| Brandon Hawbaker | $6,703 | $6,493 | $416 | 2026-09-30 |
| Chris Hatley | $55,602 | $36,631 | $-27,754 | 2026-04-15 |
| Tanya W Lloyd | $270,814 | $251,322 | $19,679 | 2026-10-14 |
| Wayne Raasch | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-11-14 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tanya W Lloyd | $51K | ||
| Chris Hatley | $17K | ||
| Michael Cloud | $0 | $7,734 | |
| Brandon Hawbaker | $1,231 |
Biggest outside spenders
- Michael Cloud. For: NRA VICTORY FUND, INC. $7,734
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-10-14, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-06-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.
general election · state results feed, unofficial
| Michael Cloud (incumbent) won | 144,467 | 51.2% |
| Tanya Lloyd | 137,927 | 48.8% |
Michael Cloud leads by 6,540 votes. 100% of reporting units counted.
Democratic primary
| Tanya Lloyd won | 35,729 | 63.1% |
| Eustaquio Castro-Mendoza | 16,657 | 29.4% |
| Wayne Raasch | 4,227 | 7.5% |
Republican primary
| Michael Cloud (incumbent) won | 49,156 | 73.0% |
| Chris Hatley | 18,215 | 27.0% |
Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-04 · parser state-feed-1.0.0+wiki-house-summary-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-03-03, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-04-11, Convention: U.S. House, LIB
- 2026-05-26, Runoff: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
In the news
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention - Vugol Vector unrated
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Signals for this race are being collected. The first Vugol Attention score lands after the nightly run reaches it; nothing is estimated in the meantime.
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: none
Unrated: not enough stored inputs yet to make a call. Missing inputs are never filled in.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: Unrated. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.