Home / Races / Texas / U.S. House — TX-23

TX2026

U.S. House — TX-23 · Texas · 2026

Name: U.S. House — TX-23, Texas — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 3 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Republican (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

1 poll on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated

News attention 15/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 11 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

Certified by the state on 2026-08-28, checked 2026-09-29.

Brandon HerreraU.S. House — TX-23 · FEC H4TX23120RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$1.9M Katy Padilla StoutU.S. House — TX-23 · FEC H6TX23273DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$485K

Also on the certified ballot: Ben Mendoza (Independent).

Not on the certified ballot (5)

Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.

Francisco 'Quico' Raul CansecoU.S. House — TX-23 · FEC H4TX28046RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$80K Gretel Marysdatter EnckU.S. House — TX-23 · FEC H6TX23257DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$99K Santos M. LimonU.S. House — TX-23 · FEC H4TX23138DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$357K Susan Storey RubioU.S. House — TX-23 · FEC H6TX23232RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$419K Veronica WilliamsU.S. House — TX-23 · FEC H6TX23299IndependentNot on the November ballotFEC raised$12K

Official source: https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/forms/2026-ballot-cert.pdf

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

1 poll on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Brandon Herrera Republican	$1,937,719	$1,636,736	$309,023	2026-06-30
Francisco 'Quico' Raul Canseco Republican	$80,050	$6,250	$201,621	2025-12-31
Gretel Marysdatter Enck Democratic	$98,534	$98,534	$0	2026-03-31
Katy Padilla Stout Democratic	$484,915	$313,542	$171,373	2026-06-30
Santos M. Limon Democratic	$356,755	$6,815	$349,940	2025-06-30
Susan Storey Rubio Republican	$418,519	$418,519	$0	2025-10-24
Veronica Williams Independent	$12,104	$6,240	$-316	2026-06-30

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary

Katy Padilla Stout won	30,828	52.1%
Santos Limon	16,077	27.1%
Bruce Richardson	6,968	11.8%
Gretel Enck	5,349	9.0%

Republican primary

Brandon Herrera advanced	23,932	43.3%
Tony Gonzales (incumbent) advanced	23,073	41.8%
Keith Barton	4,696	8.5%
Quico Canseco	3,562	6.4%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-03-03 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-04-11 — Convention: U.S. House — LIB
2026-05-26 — Runoff: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (3)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-03-10–2026-03-11 · n=521 · Generic Republican 47%, Generic Democrat 45% · release
Republican primary · Political Intelligence · 2025-12-17–2025-12-22 · n=422 · Brandon Herrera (R) 43%, Tony Gonzales (R) 34% · release
Republican primary · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2025-10-31–2025-11-01 · n=605 · Tony Gonzales (R) 40%, Brandon Herrera (R) 35% · release

Signals (experimental)

Attention 15 Vector R · Held

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

15OUT OF 100Low attention

Attention percentile0th

7-day momentum50 / 100

Source breadth0% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, money) · missing: pres, incumbent, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-19 (11 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin R +12.2Fundraising velocity (FEC)R +5.5Last result for this seat (2024 R +24.6, national swing D +10.5)R +14.1National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-29), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 8fcdaca31491 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: R · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.