U.S. House — TX-09 · Texas · 2026
General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Democratic (Anchored) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 23/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated today. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
Certified by the state on 2026-08-28, checked 2026-09-30.
Not on the certified ballot (11)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/forms/2026-ballot-cert.pdf
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Mealer | $2,080,514 | $1,718,474 | $362,040 | 2026-06-30 |
| Briscoe Rowell Cain III | $621,309 | $595,887 | $25,422 | 2026-06-30 |
| Crystal Sarmiento | $79,458 | $71,583 | $7,875 | 2026-06-30 |
| Dan Mims | $425,385 | $422,960 | $2,426 | 2026-06-30 |
| Dwayne Bradley Stovall | $27,696 | $29,295 | $0 | 2026-04-14 |
| Jaimy Blanco | $121,906 | $122,924 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
| James Buford | $72,951 | $72,986 | $0 | 2026-04-01 |
| Leticia Gutierrez | $55,358 | $36,700 | $18,658 | 2026-06-30 |
| R. Todd Ivey | $192,630 | $192,630 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
| Roy Morales | $6,008 | $2,327 | $-320 | 2026-06-30 |
| Steve Stockman | $251,777 | $207,997 | $43,780 | 2026-06-30 |
| Terry Lee Thain | $5,250 | $3,397 | $1,859 | 2025-12-31 |
| Terry Virts | $665,423 | $454,248 | $2,903 | 2026-06-30 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Republican primary runoff
| Alex Mealer won | 15,625 | 68.3% |
| Briscoe Cain | 7,257 | 31.7% |
Democratic primary
| Leticia Gutierrez won | 18,703 | 53.6% |
| Earnest Clayton | 5,673 | 16.3% |
| Terry Virts | 5,095 | 14.6% |
| Todd Ivey | 2,462 | 7.1% |
| Marty Rocha | 2,374 | 6.8% |
| Peter Filler | 558 | 1.6% |
Republican primary
| Alex Mealer advanced | 11,343 | 35.8% |
| Briscoe Cain advanced | 9,886 | 31.2% |
| Steve Stockman | 5,196 | 16.4% |
| Dan Mims | 2,608 | 8.2% |
| Crystal DeLeon-Sarmiento | 788 | 2.5% |
| Dwayne Stovall (withdrawn) | 724 | 2.3% |
| Jaimy Blanco | 498 | 1.6% |
| Michael Curran | 351 | 1.1% |
| Terry Thain | 291 | 0.9% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-03-03 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-04-11 — Convention: U.S. House — LIB
- 2026-05-26 — Runoff: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (6)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Republican primary runoff · University of Houston · 2026-05-05–2026-05-09 · n=400 · Alex Mealer (R) 50%, Briscoe Cain (R) 41% · release
- Republican primary · Pulse Decision Science (partisan) · 2026-02-09–2026-02-11 · n=400 · Alex Mealer (R) 29%, Briscoe Cain (R) 25%, Steve Stockman (R) 6%, Dan Mims (R) 6% · release
- Democratic primary · University of Houston · 2026-02-03–2026-02-10 · n=400 · Leticia Gutierrez (D) 24%, Terry Virts (D) 5%, Earnest Clayton 5%, Marty Rocha 2%, Todd Ivey (D) 2%, Peter Filler 1% · release
- Republican primary · University of Houston · 2026-02-03–2026-02-10 · n=400 · Alex Mealer (R) 34%, Briscoe Cain (R) 26%, Dan Mims (R) 10%, Steve Stockman (R) 4% · release
- Republican primary · Pulse Decision Science (partisan) · 2025-12-15–2025-12-17 · n=400 · Briscoe Cain (R) 25%, Alex Mealer (R) 19%, Steve Stockman (R) 6%, Dan Mims (R) 2% · release
- Republican primary · McLaughlin & Associates (partisan) · 2025-10-21–2025-10-23 · n=400 · Briscoe Cain (R) 37%, Alex Mealer (R) 16%, Dan Mims (R) 3% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention 23 Vector D · Anchored
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 32d356400bc7 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: D · Anchored (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.