Governor · Tennessee · 2026
General election · 5 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Result
CalledMarsha Blackburn (R) won this race.
- Marsha BlackburnRepublicanWinnershare not given957,136 votes
- Jerri GreenDemocraticshare not given902,953 votes
- David HatleyIndependentshare not given195,564 votes
- Lauren PinkstonIndependentshare not given26,200 votes
- Dean BrewerIndependentshare not given4,098 votes
- Ray BrownIndependentshare not given2,880 votes
- Wendell JacksonIndependentshare not given2,372 votes
- Eddie Lee MurphyIndependentshare not given2,296 votes
and 7 more with counted votes
- Margin
- 54,183 votes
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 1:28 AM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 11, 6:05 AM ET
- Source
- Wikipedia · official results page
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is R. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Model rating Leans Republican (Anchored) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.
8 polls on file, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Page updated 2026-11-13. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 7/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (5)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-13. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ballot source: https://elections.tn.gov/categories/governor/offices
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.
Polling average
8 polls on file for this race, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), visible below, not averaged.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
general election · official results
| Marsha Blackburn won | 957,136 | - |
| Jerri Green | 902,953 | - |
| David Hatley | 195,564 | - |
| Lauren Pinkston | 26,200 | - |
| Dean Brewer | 4,098 | - |
| Ray Brown | 2,880 | - |
| Wendell Jackson | 2,372 | - |
| Eddie Lee Murphy | 2,296 | - |
| Robert C. Vick | 2,248 | - |
| Misam Abidi | 2,110 | - |
| Charles Van Morgan | 1,323 | - |
| L. Webb Taylor | 1,113 | - |
| Dave Seeman | 870 | - |
| Victor L. Scoggin | 817 | - |
| Karl Knox Smithson | 494 | - |
Democratic primary
| Jerri Green won | 244,277 | - |
| Carnita Atwater | 63,289 | - |
| Kevin Lee McCants | 18,972 | - |
| Tim Cyr | 14,799 | - |
| Adam Kurtz | 12,465 | - |
Republican primary · official results
| Marsha Blackburn won | 311,392 | - |
| John Rose | 235,561 | - |
| Monty Fritts | 168,004 | - |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-13 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-06, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (13)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Republican primary · Wick · 2026-07-29–2026-08-01 · n=600 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 51%,John Rose 32%,Monty Fritts 17% · release
- Republican primary · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2026-07-26–2026-07-28 · n=800 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 42%,John Rose 25%,Monty Fritts 22% · release
- Republican primary · OnMessage Inc. · 2026-07-23–2026-07-25 · n=800 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 35%,John Rose 31%,Monty Fritts 26% · release
- Republican primary · McLaughlin & Associates (partisan) · 2026-06-28–2026-06-30 · n=600 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 44%,John Rose 29%,Monty Fritts 13% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Targoz Market Research · 2026-04-20–2026-04-27 · n=529 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 63%,John Rose 10%,Monty Fritts 5% · release
- Democratic primary · Targoz Market Research · 2026-04-20–2026-04-27 · n=400 · Jerri Green (D) 14%,Kevin Lee McCants 11%,Carnita Atwater 8%,Tim Cyr 3%,Adam Kurtz 2% · release
- Republican primary · VictoryPhones · 2026-03-18–2026-03-24 · n=300 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 56%,John Rose 14%,Monty Fritts 11% · release
- Republican primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-03-16–2026-03-17 · n=500 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 58%,John Rose 7% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Targoz Market Research · 2026-01-11–2026-01-18 · n=559 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 56%,John Rose 9%,Monty Fritts 7% · release
- Republican primary · Targoz Market Research · 2025-10-26–2025-10-29 · n=545 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 58%,John Rose 9%,Monty Fritts 5% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2025-08-05–2025-08-07 · n=600 · John Rose (R) 43%,Jerri Green (D) 27% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Targoz Market Research · 2025-07-27–2025-08-01 · n=623 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 66%,John Rose 14% · release
- Republican primary · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2025-01-13–2025-01-16 · n=800 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 71%,John Rose 13% · release
In the news
Couldn’t load news right now.
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 7 Vugol Vector R · Anchored
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Vugol Tensor
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre R+21.9. Four times in five the result lands between R+12.5 and R+31.3; nine in ten between R+9.9 and R+34.0. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: <1%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 8935c6b9ae31 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: R · Anchored. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.