Governor · Tennessee · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Republican (Anchored) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
5 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated
News attention 46/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Other filers (3)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/08/06/us/elections/results-tennessee-governor-primary.html
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
5 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Jerri Green won | 244,277 | 69.0% |
| Carnita Atwater | 63,289 | 17.9% |
| Kevin Lee McCants | 18,972 | 5.4% |
| Tim Cyr | 14,799 | 4.2% |
| Adam Kurtz | 12,465 | 3.5% |
Republican primary · official results
| Marsha Blackburn won | 311,392 | 43.6% |
| John Rose | 235,561 | 32.9% |
| Monty Fritts | 168,004 | 23.5% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-06 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (13)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Republican primary · Wick · 2026-07-29–2026-08-01 · n=600 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 51%, John Rose 32%, Monty Fritts 17% · release
- Republican primary · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2026-07-26–2026-07-28 · n=800 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 42%, John Rose 25%, Monty Fritts 22% · release
- Republican primary · OnMessage Inc. · 2026-07-23–2026-07-25 · n=800 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 35%, John Rose 31%, Monty Fritts 26% · release
- Republican primary · McLaughlin & Associates (partisan) · 2026-06-28–2026-06-30 · n=600 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 44%, John Rose 29%, Monty Fritts 13% · release
- Republican primary · Targoz Market Research · 2026-04-20–2026-04-27 · n=529 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 63%, John Rose 10%, Monty Fritts 5% · release
- Democratic primary · Targoz Market Research · 2026-04-20–2026-04-27 · n=400 · Jerri Green (D) 14%, Kevin Lee McCants 11%, Carnita Atwater 8%, Tim Cyr 3%, Adam Kurtz 2% · release
- Republican primary · VictoryPhones · 2026-03-18–2026-03-24 · n=300 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 56%, John Rose 14%, Monty Fritts 11% · release
- Republican primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-03-16–2026-03-17 · n=500 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 58%, John Rose 7% · release
- Republican primary · Targoz Market Research · 2026-01-11–2026-01-18 · n=559 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 56%, John Rose 9%, Monty Fritts 7% · release
- Republican primary · Targoz Market Research · 2025-10-26–2025-10-29 · n=545 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 58%, John Rose 9%, Monty Fritts 5% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2025-08-05–2025-08-07 · n=600 · John Rose (R) 43%, Jerri Green (D) 27% · release
- Republican primary · Targoz Market Research · 2025-07-27–2025-08-01 · n=623 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 66%, John Rose 14% · release
- Republican primary · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2025-01-13–2025-01-16 · n=800 · Marsha Blackburn (R) 71%, John Rose 13% · release
In the news
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Signals (experimental)
Attention 46 Vector R · Anchored
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 e49223a8ca5d · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: R · Anchored (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.