Governor · South Dakota · 2026
General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledLarry Rhoden (R) won this race with 63.5% of the vote, 27.0 points ahead.
- Larry RhodenRepublicanWinner63.5%193,333 votes
- Dan AhlersDemocratic36.5%111,157 votes
- Margin
- 82,176 votes (27.0 points)
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 11:57 PM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 14, 6:05 AM ET
- Source
- Wikipedia · official results page
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is R. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Model rating Leans Republican (Held) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.
2 polls on file, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 56/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 4 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
Certified by the state, checked 2026-11-13.
Not on the certified ballot (1)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://vip.sdsos.gov/candidatelist.aspx?eid=774
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.
Polling average
2 polls on file for this race, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), visible below, not averaged.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
general election
| Larry Rhoden won | 193,333 | 63.5% |
| Dan Ahlers | 111,157 | 36.5% |
Republican primary runoff
| Larry Rhoden (incumbent) won | 83,582 | 70.8% |
| Toby Doeden | 34,430 | 29.2% |
Republican primary
| Toby Doeden advanced | 41,712 | 30.6% |
| Larry Rhoden (incumbent) advanced | 34,321 | 25.2% |
| Dusty Johnson | 31,856 | 23.4% |
| Jon Hansen | 28,341 | 20.8% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-02, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-07-28, Runoff: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (10)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Republican primary runoff · Emerson College · 2026-07-12–2026-07-13 · n=500 · Larry Rhoden (R) 62%,Toby Doeden 32% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · The Public Sentiment Institute · 2026-05-26–2026-05-27 · n=400 · Larry Rhoden (R) 32%,Dusty Johnson 27%,Toby Doeden 24%,Jon Hansen 13% · release
- Republican primary · Meeting Street Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-20 · n=450 · Larry Rhoden (R) 23%,Toby Doeden 22%,Jon Hansen 21%,Dusty Johnson 19% · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-05-18–2026-05-19 · n=432 · Toby Doeden 26%,Dusty Johnson 23%,Larry Rhoden (R) 19%,Jon Hansen 16% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · 2026-04-07–2026-04-11 · n=500 · Dusty Johnson 34%,Jon Hansen 18%,Larry Rhoden (R) 17%,Toby Doeden 17% · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-03-07–2026-03-09 · n=413 · Dusty Johnson 28%,Toby Doeden 18%,Larry Rhoden (R) 17%,Jon Hansen 14% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Public Opinion Strategies (partisan) · 2026-03-02–2026-03-05 · n=400 · Dusty Johnson 33%,Larry Rhoden (R) 28%,Toby Doeden 16%,Jon Hansen 10% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Public Opinion Strategies (partisan) · 2026-03-02–2026-03-05 · n=400 · Larry Rhoden (R) 48%,Dusty Johnson 39% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · 2025-10-16–2025-10-20 · n=502 · Dusty Johnson 28%,Larry Rhoden (R) 27%,Toby Doeden 15%,Jon Hansen 10% · release
- Republican primary · Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · 2025-04-09–2025-04-14 · n=500 · Dusty Johnson 28%,Larry Rhoden (R) 27%,Marty Jackley 18%,Toby Doeden 4%,Jon Hansen 2% · release
In the news
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 56 Vugol Vector R · Held
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Vugol Tensor
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre R+16.5. Four times in five the result lands between R+7.1 and R+25.9; nine in ten between R+4.4 and R+28.6. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 1%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 3f636a5a0021 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: R · Held. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.