Governor · South Dakota · 2026
General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Republican (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated
News attention 26/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
Certified by the state, checked 2026-09-29.
Not on the certified ballot (1)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://vip.sdsos.gov/candidatelist.aspx?eid=774
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Republican primary runoff
| Larry Rhoden (incumbent) won | 83,582 | 70.8% |
| Toby Doeden | 34,430 | 29.2% |
Republican primary
| Toby Doeden advanced | 41,712 | 30.6% |
| Larry Rhoden (incumbent) advanced | 34,321 | 25.2% |
| Dusty Johnson | 31,856 | 23.4% |
| Jon Hansen | 28,341 | 20.8% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-02 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-07-28 — Runoff: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (10)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Republican primary runoff · Emerson College · 2026-07-12–2026-07-13 · n=500 · Larry Rhoden (R) 62%, Toby Doeden 32% · release
- Republican primary · The Public Sentiment Institute · 2026-05-26–2026-05-27 · n=400 · Larry Rhoden (R) 32%, Dusty Johnson 27%, Toby Doeden 24%, Jon Hansen 13% · release
- Republican primary · Meeting Street Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-20 · n=450 · Larry Rhoden (R) 23%, Toby Doeden 22%, Jon Hansen 21%, Dusty Johnson 19% · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-05-18–2026-05-19 · n=432 · Toby Doeden 26%, Dusty Johnson 23%, Larry Rhoden (R) 19%, Jon Hansen 16% · release
- Republican primary · Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · 2026-04-07–2026-04-11 · n=500 · Dusty Johnson 34%, Jon Hansen 18%, Larry Rhoden (R) 17%, Toby Doeden 17% · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-03-07–2026-03-09 · n=413 · Dusty Johnson 28%, Toby Doeden 18%, Larry Rhoden (R) 17%, Jon Hansen 14% · release
- Republican primary · Public Opinion Strategies (partisan) · 2026-03-02–2026-03-05 · n=400 · Dusty Johnson 33%, Larry Rhoden (R) 28%, Toby Doeden 16%, Jon Hansen 10% · release
- Republican primary · Public Opinion Strategies (partisan) · 2026-03-02–2026-03-05 · n=400 · Larry Rhoden (R) 48%, Dusty Johnson 39% · release
- Republican primary · Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · 2025-10-16–2025-10-20 · n=502 · Dusty Johnson 28%, Larry Rhoden (R) 27%, Toby Doeden 15%, Jon Hansen 10% · release
- Republican primary · Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · 2025-04-09–2025-04-14 · n=500 · Dusty Johnson 28%, Larry Rhoden (R) 27%, Marty Jackley 18%, Toby Doeden 4%, Jon Hansen 2% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention 26 Vector R · Held
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 a814c31336c1 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: R · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.