U.S. House - SD-AL · South Dakota · 2026
General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Result
CalledMarty Jackley (R) won this race.
- Marty JackleyRepublicanWinnershare not given195,587 votes
- Nicole GronliDemocraticshare not given109,993 votes
- Margin
- 85,594 votes
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 9:29 AM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 14, 6:07 AM ET
- Source
- Wikipedia · official results page
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is R. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Model rating Leans Republican (Tilting) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.
1 poll on file, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 2 of 7, updated today. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 57/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
Certified by the state, checked 2026-11-13.
Not on the certified ballot (2)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://vip.sdsos.gov/candidatelist.aspx?eid=774
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.
Polling average
1 poll on file for this race, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), visible below, not averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Mawhiney | $31,138 | $31,138 | $0 | 2026-03-31 |
| Casey Crabtree | $254,950 | $254,950 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Marty Jackley | $1,737,520 | $687,379 | $1,050,141 | 2026-10-14 |
| Nicole Gronli | $421,803 | $399,312 | $22,491 | 2026-10-14 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Jackley | $82K | $247K | |
| Casey Crabtree | $36K | ||
| Billy Mawhiney | $2,991 | ||
| Nicole Gronli | $0 |
Biggest outside spenders
- Marty Jackley. For: SOUTH DAKOTA VALUES PAC $120K, CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC. $66K, SAVE AMERICAN FREEDOM $36K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-10-20, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-23); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
general election · official results
| Marty Jackley won | 195,587 | - |
| Nicole Gronli | 109,993 | - |
Republican primary
| Marty Jackley won | 103,074 | 79.2% |
| James Bialota Jr. | 27,100 | 20.8% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-02, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-07-28, Runoff: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (4)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Republican primary · Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · 2026-04-07–2026-04-11 · n=500 · Marty Jackley (R) 68%,James Bialota 12% · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-03-07–2026-03-09 · n=415 · Marty Jackley (R) 51%,James Bialota 7% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · 2025-10-16–2025-10-20 · n=502 · Marty Jackley (R) 57%,Casey Crabtree (R) 5%,James Bialota 2% · release
- Republican primary · Guidant Polling & Strategy (partisan) · 2025-06-17–2025-06-19 · n=400 · Marty Jackley (R) 48%,Tony Venhuizen 5%,Casey Crabtree (R) 5% · release
In the news
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 57 Vugol Vector R · Tilting
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: low
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Vugol Tensor
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre R+8.0. Four times in five the result lands between D+1.4 and R+17.4; nine in ten between D+4.1 and R+20.1. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 14%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 e9ff72a23049 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: R · Tilting. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.