U.S. House — SD-AL · South Dakota · 2026
General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Republican (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 2 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention — — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. First run pending. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
Certified by the state, checked 2026-09-29.
Not on the certified ballot (2)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://vip.sdsos.gov/candidatelist.aspx?eid=774
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Mawhiney | $31,138 | $31,138 | $0 | 2026-03-31 |
| Casey Crabtree | $254,950 | $236,228 | $18,722 | 2026-06-30 |
| Marty Jackley | $1,438,706 | $375,981 | $1,062,725 | 2026-06-30 |
| Nicole Gronli | $261,764 | $150,786 | $110,978 | 2026-06-30 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Republican primary
| Marty Jackley won | 103,074 | 79.2% |
| James Bialota Jr. | 27,100 | 20.8% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-02 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-07-28 — Runoff: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (4)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Republican primary · Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · 2026-04-07–2026-04-11 · n=500 · Marty Jackley (R) 68%, James Bialota 12% · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-03-07–2026-03-09 · n=415 · Marty Jackley (R) 51%, James Bialota 7% · release
- Republican primary · Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · 2025-10-16–2025-10-20 · n=502 · Marty Jackley (R) 57%, Casey Crabtree (R) 5%, James Bialota 2% · release
- Republican primary · Guidant Polling & Strategy (partisan) · 2025-06-17–2025-06-19 · n=400 · Marty Jackley (R) 48%, Tony Venhuizen 5%, Casey Crabtree (R) 5% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention — Vector R · Tilting
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Signals for this race are being collected. The first Attention score lands after the nightly run reaches it; nothing is estimated in the meantime.
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: low
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: R · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.