General election · 3 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Nancy Lacore (D) won this race.
Called it: miss Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Verified polls Honeycutt leads Lacore by 6.7 points in our average of verified polls.
1 verified poll averaged, newest ended 2026-10-01. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 8/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/127300/web.345435/#/summary
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre R+6.7. Four times in five the result lands between Even and R+13.4; nine in ten between D+1.9 and R+15.3. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 10%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (1 verified poll), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pelbath | $396,522 | $395,975 | $547 | 2026-09-30 |
| Dan Brown | $7,504 | $10,806 | $730 | 2026-09-30 |
| Francina Dantzler | $12,500 | $10,310 | $4,380 | 2026-05-20 |
| Jenny Costa Honeycutt | $1,291,996 | $983,978 | $308,018 | 2026-10-14 |
| Kj Atwood | $19,483 | $18,670 | $813 | 2026-05-20 |
| Logan Cunningham | $30,381 | $30,287 | $94 | 2026-06-30 |
| Mark Smith | $956,631 | $956,631 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Matthew Fulmer | $10,464 | $10,033 | $440 | 2026-07-23 |
| Max Eliot Diaz | $6,587 | $6,587 | $-452 | 2026-06-16 |
| Mayra Rivera-Vazquez | $126,367 | $110,273 | $5,824 | 2026-06-30 |
| Nancy Lacore | $4,865,630 | $4,690,325 | $175,304 | 2026-10-14 |
| Sam McCown | $1,595,792 | $1,595,792 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Tyler Dykes | $25,200 | $25,996 | $-3,209 | 2026-07-07 |
| William Mac Deford | $658,144 | $657,970 | $0 | 2026-07-31 |
| William Oliver Reeside Jr. | $115,492 | $111,832 | $3,660 | 2026-10-14 |
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jenny Costa Honeycutt | $228K | $3.2M | $3.6M |
| Nancy Lacore | $611K | $1.2M | $3.3M |
| Sam McCown | $783K | $552K | |
| Mark Smith | $508K | $22K | $285K |
| William Oliver Reeside Jr. | $0 | $171K | |
| Alex Pelbath | $82K | $73K |
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-13, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-10-13); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
| Nancy Lacore won | 162,103 | - |
| Jenny Costa Honeycutt | 158,751 | - |
| Bill Reeside Jr. | 5,351 | - |
| Write-ins | 218 | 0.1% |
| Nancy Lacore won | 12,825 | 52.1% |
| Mac Deford | 11,773 | 47.9% |
| Jenny Costa Honeycutt won | 24,035 | 53.7% |
| Mark Smith | 20,724 | 46.3% |
| Nancy Lacore advanced | 20,643 | 36.5% |
| Mac Deford advanced | 16,348 | 28.9% |
| Francina Dantzler | 5,425 | 9.6% |
| Mayra Rivera-Vazquez | 5,411 | 9.6% |
| Ben Frasier | 5,369 | 9.5% |
| Matt Fulmer | 2,266 | 4.0% |
| Max Diaz | 1,117 | 2.0% |
| Jenny Costa Honeycutt advanced | 14,822 | 22.1% |
| Mark Smith advanced | 12,074 | 18.0% |
| Sam McCown | 10,508 | 15.7% |
| Mark Sanford (withdrawn) | 8,107 | 12.1% |
| Alex Pelbath | 7,288 | 10.9% |
| Logan Cunningham | 4,480 | 6.7% |
| Jay Byars | 4,265 | 6.4% |
| Dan Brown | 2,924 | 4.4% |
| Cindy Wagers Riley | 1,233 | 1.8% |
| Tyler Dykes | 943 | 1.4% |
| Kendal Ludden | 466 | 0.7% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Vugol Vector band: Toss-up. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
