Who is ahead in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race?

Name: U.S. Senate, South Carolina, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Annie Andrews (D) won the SC Senate race. Graham leads Andrews by 1.6 points in our average of verified polls. Verified poll average · 6 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-31. Updated 2026-11-14.

Home / Races / South Carolina / U.S. Senate

SC2026

U.S. Senate · South Carolina · 2026

General election · 3 on the November ballot · Incumbent running

VecR 23 · TiltingTenR 62%Att59

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

CalledFlip: R to D

Annie Andrews (D) won this race, defeating incumbent Darline Graham.

Annie AndrewsDemocraticWinnershare not given1,044,001 votes
Darline GrahamRepublicanIncumbentshare not given952,191 votes
Kasie WhitenerLshare not given23,585 votes
Mark HackettConstitution Party (United States)share not given16,811 votes

Margin: 91,810 votes
Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 10:00 PM ET (revision)
Seat: Changed party: held by Darline Graham (R)
Last updated: Nov 14, 6:05 AM ET
Source: Wikipedia · official results page

Called it: miss Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is D. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

Race poll averageU.S. Senate · South Carolina

Annie Andrews

49%

Darline Graham

RIncumbent

51%

Verified poll average · 6 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-31

R · Tiltingfrom verified polls

Verified polls Graham leads Andrews by 1.6 points in our average of verified polls.

6 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-10-31. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 59/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works

On the South Carolina ballot, Nov 3, 2026 U.S. Senate, 4 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in South Carolina? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (3)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Darline GrahamU.S. Senate - SC · FEC S6SC04437Republican IncumbentOn the ballotFEC raised$1.9M Annie AndrewsU.S. Senate - SC · FEC S6SC04239DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$24.2M Kasie WhitenerU.S. Senate - SC · FEC S6SC04247LibertarianOn the ballotFEC raised$28K

Ran in the primary (11)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.

Other filers (3)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Andre BauerU.S. Senate - SC · FEC S6SC04262RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$216K Lee JohnsonU.S. Senate - SC · FEC S6SC04288DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$569K Paul DansU.S. Senate - SC · FEC S6SC04296RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$1.1M

Ballot source: https://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/127300/web.345435/#/detail/26000

Polling average · 6 verified pollsVerified

Graham +1.6

Annie Andrews Democratic: 49.2%
Darline Graham Republican: Incumbent50.8%

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

6 verified polls

Latest verified pollVerified

Graham +3Within margin of error

Annie Andrews Democratic: 47%
Darline Graham Republican: 50%

Undecided 6%

Cite / verify

Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-SC

Sourcehttps://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_south_carolina_senate

Retrieved2026-11-14

Polling average Updates as polls arrive

6 verified inputs

50.8% Darline Graham49.2% Annie Andrews

Darline Graham (R)Annie Andrews (D)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Vugol Tensor

How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction

tensor-1.0.0

Centre R+1.6. Four times in five the result lands between D+5.1 and R+8.3; nine in ten between D+7.0 and R+10.2. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 38%.

Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (6 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Darline Graham Republican	$1,917,646	$1,283,216	$634,430	2026-10-14
Andre Bauer Republican	$216,272	$216,272	$0	2025-12-01
Annie Andrews Democratic	$24,216,841	$22,507,375	$1,709,466	2026-10-14
Brandon Brown Democratic	$85,649	$28,917	$0	2026-09-30
Calvin Cowen Republican	$13,190	$10,884	$2,306	2026-09-30
Duke Buckner Republican	$15,078	$15,078	$0	2026-09-30
Glenda Gail Parker Republican	$13,455	$13,455	$0	2026-09-30
Kasie Whitener Libertarian	$27,615	$21,833	$5,781	2026-10-14
Kyle Odonnell Freeman Democratic	$54,269	$52,239	$2,030	2026-05-20
Lee Johnson Democratic	$569,186	$569,186	$0	2025-12-31
Mark Lynch Republican	$5,924,362	$5,830,494	$93,869	2026-09-30
Marshall C Sanford Republican	$354,562	$1,366,165	$311,900	2026-09-30
Patrick Joseph Herrmann Republican	$17,073	$17,063	$10	2026-09-30
Paul Dans Republican	$1,089,610	$1,005,575	$84,036	2026-09-30
Ralph Norman Republican	$3,176,283	$3,124,158	$52,125	2026-09-30
Russell Fry Republican	$1,499,394	$1,497,126	$2,268	2026-09-30
Thomas Keith Dismukes Republican	$25,742	$24,867	$875	2026-09-30

Ad spending (FEC)

What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.

Candidate	Campaign's own ads	Outside groups for	Outside groups against
Annie Andrews Democratic	$1.9M+ $214K mail · through 2026-06-30	$10.1M$8.1M ads · 15 groups	$19.8M$18.7M ads · 7 groups
Darline Graham Republican	$0through 2026-08-05	$10.9M$7.3M ads · 13 groups	$13.8M$13.7M ads · 14 groups
Mark Lynch Republican	$3.4M+ $1M mail · through 2026-07-22	$17K$0 ads · 1 group	$5.7M$4.1M ads · 3 groups
Ralph Norman Republican	$541K+ $120K mail · through 2026-08-05	$517K$346K ads · 6 groups	$5M$4.7M ads · 4 groups
Russell Fry Republican	$0through 2026-07-22	$1.2M$1.1M ads · 2 groups	none reported
Paul Dans Republican	$139K+ $1,366 mail · through 2026-09-30	none reported	none reported

Biggest outside spenders

Annie Andrews. For: Government That Works PAC $4.2M, BlackPAC $3M, FRESH START SC PAC $871K. Against: SLF PAC $13M, Security Is Strength PAC $4.2M, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $1.5M
Darline Graham. For: Security Is Strength PAC $3.3M, BUILDING THE FUTURE $2.5M, AMERICAN MISSION $2.3M. Against: Government That Works PAC $6.7M, FRESH START SC PAC $2.5M, New Deal for All, Inc. $2.5M
Mark Lynch. For: SC RISING $17K. Against: PALMETTO ACTION $3.5M, Security Is Strength PAC $1.4M, Project 2026 $771K
Ralph Norman. For: PALMETTO FIRST PAC $393K, FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND $73K, Gun Rights America $21K. Against: PALMETTO ACTION $3.2M, Security Is Strength PAC $1.7M, Palmetto Leadership Fund $52K
Russell Fry. For: Palmetto Leadership Fund $1.1M, ANTI-WOKE FUND $116K

Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-03, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.

general election · official results

Annie Andrews won	1,044,001	-
Darline Graham (incumbent)	952,191	-
Kasie Whitener	23,585	-
Mark Hackett	16,811	-

Republican primary runoff

Darline Graham (incumbent) won	193,486	52.4%
Ralph Norman	175,412	47.6%

Democratic primary

Annie Andrews won	226,075	61.5%
Brandon Brown	110,962	30.2%
Kyle Freeman	30,374	8.3%

Republican primary

Lindsey Graham (incumbent) advanced	264,091	56.8%
Darline Graham (incumbent) advanced	109,881	32.8%
Ralph Norman advanced	82,627	24.6%
Russell Fry	65,955	19.7%
Mark Sanford	50,136	14.9%
Thomas Dismukes	24,164	5.2%
Mark Lynch	19,892	5.9%
Pat Herrmann	17,448	3.8%
Calvin Cowen	14,171	3.0%
Darius Mitchell	10,842	2.3%
Danny Ford II	2,804	0.8%
Duke Buckner	1,583	0.5%
Glenda Gail Parker	977	0.3%
Samuel Shepherd	931	0.3%
Mark McBride	769	0.2%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-04-11, Convention: U.S. Senate, LIB
2026-06-09, Primary election: U.S. Senate
2026-06-23, Runoff: U.S. Senate
2026-08-11, Special primary: U.S. Senate, REP
2026-08-25, Special runoff: U.S. Senate, REP
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. Senate

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (40)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-08-05–2026-08-06 · n=668 · Darline Graham (R) 33%,Ralph Norman (R) 20%,Russell Fry (R) 20%,Mark Sanford (R) 17%,Mark Lynch (R) 8% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-07-28–2026-07-30 · n=857 · Darline Graham (R) 30%,Russell Fry (R) 16%,Ralph Norman (R) 15%,Mark Sanford (R) 9%,Mark Lynch (R) 6% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-07-28–2026-07-29 · n=500 · Ralph Norman (R) 22%,Darline Graham (R) 19%,Russell Fry (R) 12%,Mark Sanford (R) 11%,Mark Lynch (R) 7% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Innovative Communication Strategies · 2026-07-20–2026-07-21 · n=788 · Ralph Norman (R) 19%,Darline Graham (R) 16%,Russell Fry (R) 12%,Mark Lynch (R) 9%,Nancy Mace 7%,Pamela Evette 6%,Mark Sanford (R) 5% · release
Republican primary · Resonance Media Services (partisan) · 2026-07-21–2026-07-21 · n=600 · Darline Graham (R) 21%,Ralph Norman (R) 17%,Pamela Evette 10%,Mark Sanford (R) 7%,Mark Lynch (R) 7%,Russell Fry (R) 7%,Nancy Mace 3% · release
Republican primary · Peak Insights (partisan) · 2026-07-18–2026-07-20 · n=900 · Trey Gowdy 38%,Ralph Norman (R) 13%,Darline Graham (R) 9%,Russell Fry (R) 9%,Mark Lynch (R) 7%,Nancy Mace 6%,Pamela Evette 4%,Mark Sanford (R) 4% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Generic Republican 47%,Annie Andrews (D) 39% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Annie Andrews (D) 42%,John Warren (R) 36% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Generic Republican 47%,Annie Andrews (D) 39% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Annie Andrews (D) 41%,Mark Sanford (R) 40% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Ralph Norman (R) 43%,Annie Andrews (D) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Annie Andrews (D) 41%,Mark Sanford (R) 40% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Trey Gowdy (R) 44%,Annie Andrews (D) 41% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Annie Andrews (D) 42%,Pamela Evette (R) 41% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Trey Gowdy (R) 44%,Annie Andrews (D) 41% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Annie Andrews (D) 42%,John Warren (R) 36% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Annie Andrews (D) 41%,Mark Lynch (R) 38% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Annie Andrews (D) 41%,Mark Lynch (R) 38% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Annie Andrews (D) 42%,Nancy Mace (R) 39% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Annie Andrews (D) 42%,Russell Fry (R) 39% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Annie Andrews (D) 42%,Nancy Mace (R) 39% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Annie Andrews (D) 42%,Pamela Evette (R) 41% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Annie Andrews (D) 42%,Russell Fry (R) 39% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Ralph Norman (R) 43%,Annie Andrews (D) 42% · release
Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-07-14–2026-07-15 · n=500 · Ralph Norman (R) 16%,Mark Lynch (R) 13%,Nancy Mace 10%,Pamela Evette 10%,Russell Fry (R) 9%,Henry McMaster 8%,Darline Graham (R) 6%,Mark Sanford (R) 5% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-06-17–2026-06-22 · n=700 · Lindsey Graham (R) 48%,Annie Andrews (D) 45% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-06-17–2026-06-22 · n=700 · Lindsey Graham (R) 48%,Annie Andrews (D) 45% · release
Republican primary · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2026-06-05–2026-06-07 · n=1,200 · Lindsey Graham (R) 49%,Mark Lynch (R) 29% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-06-05–2026-06-06 · n=800 · Lindsey Graham (R) 51%,Mark Lynch (R) 21% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · The Public Sentiment Institute · 2026-06-03–2026-06-04 · n=388 · Lindsey Graham (R) 51%,Mark Lynch (R) 26% · release
Democratic primary · The Citadel · 2026-05-21–2026-05-31 · n=427 · Annie Andrews (D) 45%,Brandon Brown (D) 14%,Kyle Freeman (D) 5% · release
Republican primary · The Citadel · 2026-05-21–2026-05-31 · n=600 · Lindsey Graham (R) 46%,Mark Lynch (R) 36% · release
Republican primary · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2026-05-21–2026-05-24 · n=1,125 · Lindsey Graham (R) 52%,Mark Lynch (R) 28% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-05-13–2026-05-14 · n=800 · Lindsey Graham (R) 56%,Mark Lynch (R) 13% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-02-25–2026-03-01 · n=700 · Lindsey Graham (R) 47%,Annie Andrews (D) 42% · release
Democratic primary · Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-02-25–2026-03-01 · n=700 · Lindsey Graham (R) 47%,Annie Andrews (D) 42% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-11-21–2025-11-22 · n=704 · Lindsey Graham (R) 42%,Annie Andrews (D) 36% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-11-21–2025-11-22 · n=704 · Lindsey Graham (R) 41%,Generic Democrat 39% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-11-21–2025-11-22 · n=704 · Lindsey Graham (R) 41%,Generic Democrat 39% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-11-21–2025-11-22 · n=704 · Lindsey Graham (R) 42%,Annie Andrews (D) 36% · release

In the news

Newly elected Senate Democrats in the spotlight: From the Politics DeskNBC News · Nov 13
At the Races: Regional realignmentRoll Call · Nov 12
Dem Scott Colom defeats Mississippi Sen. Hyde-Smith after weeklong nailbiterNew York Post · Nov 11
Kennedy’s Future: Will Democrats Try to Impeach Him, or Actually Work With Him?New York Times · Nov 12
Scott Colom elected Mississippi’s first Black senator since ReconstructionRoll Call · Nov 11
Reporter’s Notebook: House leadership up for grabs as GOP reckons with devastating lossesFox News · Nov 10
With Jim Jordan as leader, House GOP signals it's ready to fightCBS News · Nov 12
Another bill to release Epstein files headed to House floorRoll Call · Nov 11
Newly elected Dem's blistering GOP attacks emerge after she courted Republican voters: 'Lit on fire'Fox News · Nov 9
Petition for new Epstein files bill gets enough support for voteCBS News · Nov 11

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 59 Vugol Vector R · Tilting

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

59OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Vugol Attention percentile97th

7-day momentum1 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, pres, incumbent, money) · missing: prior, pulse, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-13 (yesterday)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 faad63d0c981 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: R · Tilting. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.