Vugol MeA source on every number
WatchlistSee plans
Home / Races / South Carolina / U.S. Senate
SC2026

U.S. Senate · South Carolina · 2026

General election · 4 on the November ballot · Incumbent running

Community poll

Model rating Leans Republican (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

5 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 56/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works

On the November ballot (3)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Annie AndrewsU.S. Senate — SC · FEC S6SC04239DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$10.8MDarline GrahamU.S. Senate — SC · FEC S6SC04437RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$347KKasie WhitenerU.S. Senate — SC · FEC S6SC04247LibertarianOn the ballotFEC raised$17K

Ran in the primary (12)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.

Lindsey O. GrahamU.S. Senate — SC · FEC S0SC00149Republican IncumbentLost primaryFEC raised$21.5MBrandon BrownU.S. Senate — SC · FEC S6SC04270DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$86KCalvin CowenU.S. Senate — SC · FEC S6SC04379RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$13KDuke BucknerU.S. Senate — SC · FEC S6SC04395RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$15KGlenda Gail ParkerU.S. Senate — SC · FEC S6SC04460RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$13KKyle Odonnell FreemanU.S. Senate — SC · FEC S6SC04197DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$54KMark LynchU.S. Senate — SC · FEC S6SC04213RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$5.9MMarshall C SanfordU.S. Senate — SC · FEC S6SC04452RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$206KPatrick Joseph HerrmannU.S. Senate — SC · FEC S6SC04346RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$17KRalph NormanU.S. Senate — SC · FEC S6SC04445RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$935KRussell FryU.S. Senate — SC · FEC S6SC04403RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$495KThomas Keith DismukesU.S. Senate — SC · FEC S6SC04361RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$25K

Other filers (3)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Andre BauerU.S. Senate — SC · FEC S6SC04262RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$216KLee JohnsonU.S. Senate — SC · FEC S6SC04288DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$569KPaul DansU.S. Senate — SC · FEC S6SC04296RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$1.1M

Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina&oldid=1377201866

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

5 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

25436090d60d30dtoday
Darline Graham (R)Annie Andrews (D)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handThrough
Lindsey O. Graham Republican$21,525,707$31,707,365$2,309,8002026-06-30
Andre Bauer Republican$216,272$216,272$02025-12-01
Annie Andrews Democratic$10,804,041$6,684,746$4,119,2952026-06-30
Brandon Brown Democratic$85,649$28,917$02026-09-30
Calvin Cowen Republican$13,190$10,884$2,3062026-06-30
Darline Graham Republican$346,783$95,351$251,4312026-08-05
Duke Buckner Republican$15,078$15,078$02026-09-30
Glenda Gail Parker Republican$13,455$13,455$02026-09-30
Kasie Whitener Libertarian$17,264$14,658$2,6072026-06-30
Kyle Odonnell Freeman Democratic$54,269$52,239$2,0302026-05-20
Lee Johnson Democratic$569,186$569,186$02025-12-31
Mark Lynch Republican$5,919,539$5,372,977$546,5612026-07-22
Marshall C Sanford Republican$206,237$177,136$1,352,6042026-07-22
Patrick Joseph Herrmann Republican$17,073$17,063$102026-06-30
Paul Dans Republican$1,081,244$959,432$121,8122026-06-30
Ralph Norman Republican$934,892$697,553$237,3392026-08-05
Russell Fry Republican$495,027$10,441$484,5862026-07-22
Thomas Keith Dismukes Republican$24,842$24,832$102026-06-30

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Republican primary runoff

Darline Graham (incumbent) won193,48652.4%
Ralph Norman175,41247.6%

Democratic primary

Annie Andrews won226,07561.5%
Brandon Brown110,96230.2%
Kyle Freeman30,3748.3%

Republican primary

Lindsey Graham (incumbent) advanced264,09156.8%
Darline Graham (incumbent) advanced109,88132.8%
Ralph Norman advanced82,62724.6%
Russell Fry65,95519.7%
Mark Sanford50,13614.9%
Thomas Dismukes24,1645.2%
Mark Lynch19,8925.9%
Pat Herrmann17,4483.8%
Calvin Cowen14,1713.0%
Darius Mitchell10,8422.3%
Danny Ford II2,8040.8%
Duke Buckner1,5830.5%
Glenda Gail Parker9770.3%
Samuel Shepherd9310.3%
Mark McBride7690.2%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

  • 2026-04-11 — Convention: U.S. Senate — LIB
  • 2026-06-09 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
  • 2026-06-23 — Runoff: U.S. Senate
  • 2026-08-11 — Special primary: U.S. Senate — REP
  • 2026-08-25 — Special runoff: U.S. Senate — REP
  • 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (30)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

  • Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-08-05–2026-08-06 · n=668 · Darline Graham (R) 33%, Ralph Norman (R) 20%, Russell Fry (R) 20%, Mark Sanford (R) 17%, Mark Lynch (R) 8% · release
  • Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-07-28–2026-07-30 · n=857 · Darline Graham (R) 30%, Russell Fry (R) 16%, Ralph Norman (R) 15%, Mark Sanford (R) 9%, Mark Lynch (R) 6% · release
  • Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-07-28–2026-07-29 · n=500 · Ralph Norman (R) 22%, Darline Graham (R) 19%, Russell Fry (R) 12%, Mark Sanford (R) 11%, Mark Lynch (R) 7% · release
  • Republican primary · Innovative Communication Strategies · 2026-07-20–2026-07-21 · n=788 · Ralph Norman (R) 19%, Darline Graham (R) 16%, Russell Fry (R) 12%, Mark Lynch (R) 9%, Nancy Mace 7%, Pamela Evette 6%, Mark Sanford (R) 5% · release
  • Republican primary · Resonance Media Services (partisan) · 2026-07-21–2026-07-21 · n=600 · Darline Graham (R) 21%, Ralph Norman (R) 17%, Pamela Evette 10%, Mark Sanford (R) 7%, Mark Lynch (R) 7%, Russell Fry (R) 7%, Nancy Mace 3% · release
  • Republican primary · Peak Insights (partisan) · 2026-07-18–2026-07-20 · n=900 · Trey Gowdy 38%, Ralph Norman (R) 13%, Darline Graham (R) 9%, Russell Fry (R) 9%, Mark Lynch (R) 7%, Nancy Mace 6%, Mark Sanford (R) 4%, Pamela Evette 4% · release
  • Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Generic Republican 47%, Annie Andrews (D) 39% · release
  • Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Annie Andrews (D) 42%, John Warren (R) 36% · release
  • Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Ralph Norman (R) 43%, Annie Andrews (D) 42% · release
  • Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Annie Andrews (D) 41%, Mark Sanford (R) 40% · release
  • Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Trey Gowdy (R) 44%, Annie Andrews (D) 41% · release
  • Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Annie Andrews (D) 41%, Mark Lynch (R) 38% · release
  • Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Annie Andrews (D) 42%, Nancy Mace (R) 39% · release
  • Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Annie Andrews (D) 42%, Russell Fry (R) 39% · release
  • Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-16–2026-07-17 · n=577 · Annie Andrews (D) 42%, Pamela Evette (R) 41% · release
  • Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-07-14–2026-07-15 · n=500 · Ralph Norman (R) 16%, Mark Lynch (R) 13%, Pamela Evette 10%, Nancy Mace 10%, Russell Fry (R) 9%, Henry McMaster 8%, Darline Graham (R) 6%, Mark Sanford (R) 5% · release
  • Hypothetical matchup · Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-06-17–2026-06-22 · n=700 · Lindsey Graham (R) 48%, Annie Andrews (D) 45% · release
  • Republican primary · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2026-06-05–2026-06-07 · n=1,200 · Lindsey Graham (R) 49%, Mark Lynch (R) 29% · release
  • Republican primary · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-06-05–2026-06-06 · n=800 · Lindsey Graham (R) 51%, Mark Lynch (R) 21% · release
  • Republican primary · The Public Sentiment Institute · 2026-06-03–2026-06-04 · n=388 · Lindsey Graham (R) 51%, Mark Lynch (R) 26% · release
  • Democratic primary · The Citadel · 2026-05-21–2026-05-31 · n=427 · Annie Andrews (D) 45%, Brandon Brown (D) 14%, Kyle Freeman (D) 5% · release
  • Republican primary · The Citadel · 2026-05-21–2026-05-31 · n=600 · Lindsey Graham (R) 46%, Mark Lynch (R) 36% · release
  • Republican primary · Trafalgar Group (partisan) · 2026-05-21–2026-05-24 · n=1,125 · Lindsey Graham (R) 52%, Mark Lynch (R) 28% · release
  • Republican primary · InsiderAdvantage (partisan) · 2026-05-13–2026-05-14 · n=800 · Lindsey Graham (R) 56%, Mark Lynch (R) 13% · release
  • Hypothetical matchup · Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-02-25–2026-03-01 · n=700 · Lindsey Graham (R) 47%, Annie Andrews (D) 42% · release
  • Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-11-21–2025-11-22 · n=704 · Lindsey Graham (R) 41%, Generic Democrat 39% · release
  • Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-11-21–2025-11-22 · n=704 · Lindsey Graham (R) 42%, Annie Andrews (D) 36% · release
  • Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2025-10-01–2025-10-04 · n=600 · Lindsey Graham (R) 51%, Mark Lynch (R) 11%, Paul Dans (R) 6% · release
  • Republican primary · Big Data Poll (partisan) · 2025-09-26–2025-09-29 · n=827 · Lindsey Graham (R) 46%, Paul Dans (R) 22%, Mark Lynch (R) 4% · release
  • Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2025-06-10–2025-06-13 · n=600 · Lindsey Graham (R) 48%, Mark Lynch (R) 23% · release

In the news

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Signals (experimental)

Attention 56 Vector R · Tilting

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0
56OUT OF 100Moderate attention
Attention percentile91th
7-day momentum2 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, pres, incumbent, money) · missing: prior, pulse, poll
Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-29 (yesterday)
Vector component signals · estimated margin R +6.8Presidential lean of the seat (2024 R +18.1, national swing D +10.5)R +7.6Fundraising velocity (FEC)R +5.7IncumbencyR +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Band: R · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.