RI2026

Governor · Rhode Island · 2026

Name: Governor, Rhode Island — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Democratic (Anchored) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

5 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated

News attention 63/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Aaron GuckianGovernor — RIRepublicanOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Helena Buonanno FoulkesGovernor — RIDemocraticOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file

Other filers (4)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

CD ReynoldsGovernor — RI · FEC H4RI01372IndependentNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file Helena FoulkesGovernor — RIDemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file Jasjit GotraGovernor — RIIndependentNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file Ken BlockGovernor — RIIndependentNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file

Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_Rhode_Island_gubernatorial_election&oldid=1377406673

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

5 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

Helena Foulkes (D)Ken Block (I)Aaron Guckian (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary

Helena Buonanno Foulkes won	81,314	62.5%
Dan McKee (incumbent)	48,872	37.5%

Republican primary

Aaron Guckian won	11,691	50.6%
Elaine Pelino	11,432	49.4%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-09-09 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (22)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=750 · Helena Buonanno Foulkes (D) 42%, Elaine Pelino (R) 20%, Ken Block (I) 18% · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=750 · Dan McKee (D) 26%, Ken Block (I) 25%, Elaine Pelino (R) 19% · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=750 · Dan McKee (D) 27%, Ken Block (I) 26%, Aaron Guckian (R) 17% · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=451 · Helena Foulkes (D) 56%, Dan McKee 18% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College/WPRI-TV · 2026-08-21–2026-08-22 · n=1,000 · Dan McKee (D) 36%, Ken Block (I) 26%, Aaron Guckian (R) 17% · release
Democratic primary · Emerson College/WPRI-TV · 2026-08-21–2026-08-22 · n=528 · Helena Foulkes (D) 45%, Dan McKee 30% · release
Democratic primary · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-07-10–2026-07-14 · n=777 · Helena Foulkes (D) 39%, Dan McKee 33% · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=664 · Helena Buonanno Foulkes (D) 38%, Republican nominee 22%, Ken Block (I) 19% · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=337 · Helena Foulkes (D) 42%, Dan McKee 22%, Gregory Stevens 1% · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=664 · Dan McKee (D) 27%, Ken Block (I) 27%, Aaron Guckian (R) 23% · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=664 · Ken Block (I) 27%, Dan McKee (D) 27%, Republican nominee 23% · release
Democratic primary · Emerson College/WPRI-TV · 2026-05-14–2026-05-16 · n=565 · Helena Foulkes (D) 40%, Dan McKee 20% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College/WPRI-TV · 2026-05-14–2026-05-16 · n=1,000 · Dan McKee (D) 33%, Republican nominee 23%, Ken Block (I) 22% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College/WPRI-TV · 2026-05-14–2026-05-16 · n=1,000 · Helena Buonanno Foulkes (D) 39%, Republican nominee 21%, Ken Block (I) 19% · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-04-16–2026-04-20 · n=327 · Helena Foulkes (D) 45%, Dan McKee 11%, Gregory Stevens 3% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Opinion Diagnostics · 2026-04-13–2026-04-16 · n=802 · Dan McKee (D) 28%, Ken Block (I) 20%, Aaron Guckian (R) 15% · release
Democratic primary · Expedition Strategies (partisan) · 2026-03-24–2026-03-29 · n=800 · Helena Foulkes (D) 34%, Dan McKee 20%, Gregory Stevens 8% · release
Democratic primary · Concord Public Opinion Partners (partisan) · 2026-02-28–2026-02-28 · n=319 · Helena Foulkes (D) 24%, Dan McKee 15%, Gregory Stevens 3% · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-02-12–2026-02-16 · n=364 · Helena Foulkes (D) 34%, Dan McKee 18%, Gregory Stevens 4% · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2025-11-13–2025-11-17 · n=364 · Helena Foulkes (D) 29%, Joe Shekarchi 13%, Dan McKee 11% · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2025-09-17–2025-09-23 · n=275 · Helena Foulkes (D) 35%, Dan McKee 19% · release
Democratic primary · URI/YouGov · 2025-08-01–2025-08-18 · n=500 · Dan McKee 19%, Peter Neronha 15%, Helena Foulkes (D) 14%, Joe Shekarchi 7% · release

Signals (experimental)

Attention 63 Vector D · Anchored

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

63OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile97th

7-day momentum15 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres) · missing: incumbent, money, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-28 (2 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin D +25.1Presidential lean of the seat (2024 D +13.8, national swing D +8.4)D +22.2Last result for this seat (2022 D +19.1, national swing D +8.5)D +27.5National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-29), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing × 0.8 for this office; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 385d9a8f8158 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: D · Anchored (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.