Reed +31
- John F. Reed Democratic: 63%
- Raymond Tyler McKay Republican: 32%
- Michael Bahry Independent: 3%
Other 0% · Undecided 2%
RI2026
U.S. Senate · Rhode Island · 2026
General election · 3 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledJack Reed (D) won this race with 66.8% of the vote, 37.5 points ahead.
- Jack ReedDemocraticIncumbentWinner66.8%240,686 votes
- Raymond McKayRepublican29.3%105,453 votes
- Michael BahryIndependent3.8%13,562 votes
- Margin
- 135,233 votes (37.5 points)
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 8:05 PM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 14, 6:07 AM ET
- Source
- Wikipedia · official results page
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageU.S. Senate · Rhode Island
John F. Reed
64%
Raymond Tyler McKay
33%
Verified poll average · 5 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-313% other
Verified polls Reed leads McKay by 30.6 points in our average of verified polls.
5 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-10-31. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 15/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 6 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (1)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Rhode_Island&oldid=1385159428
Reed +31
- John F. Reed Democratic: Incumbent63.7%
- Raymond Tyler McKay Republican: 33%
- Michael Bahry Independent: 3.3%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-RI
Sourcehttps://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1015/
Retrieved2026-11-14
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
63.7% John F. Reed33.0% Raymond Tyler McKay3.3% Michael Bahry
Jack Reed (D)Raymond McKay (R)Michael Bahry (I)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre D+30.6. Four times in five the result lands between D+37.4 and D+23.9; nine in ten between D+39.3 and D+22.0. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: >99%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (5 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John F. Reed | $4,814,653 | $4,940,508 | $1,883,532 | 2026-10-14 |
| Connor Burbridge | $26,856 | $26,856 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Michael Bahry | $125,116 | $32,499 | $92,617 | 2026-10-14 |
| Raymond Tyler McKay | $207,231 | $199,212 | $8,357 | 2026-10-14 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| John F. Reed | $684K | ||
| Connor Burbridge | $12K | ||
| Raymond Tyler McKay | $2,496 | ||
| Michael Bahry | $2,145 |
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-21); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
general election
| Jack Reed (incumbent) won | 240,686 | 66.8% |
| Raymond McKay | 105,453 | 29.3% |
| Michael Bahry | 13,562 | 3.8% |
Democratic primary
| Jack Reed (incumbent) won | 98,473 | 76.8% |
| Connor Burbridge | 17,192 | 13.4% |
| Luis Daniel Muñoz | 12,529 | 9.8% |
Republican primary
| Raymond McKay won | 20,354 | 100.0% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-09-09, Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (3)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=451 · Jack Reed (D) 54%,Connor Burbridge (D) 18% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=337 · Jack Reed (D) 63%,Connor Burbridge (D) 25% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-04-16–2026-04-20 · n=323 · Jack Reed (D) 65%,Connor Burbridge (D) 15% · pollster's site · release
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 15 Vugol Vector D · Held
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
15OUT OF 100Low attention
Vugol Attention percentile0th
7-day momentum50 / 100
Source breadth0% of tracked
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, pres, incumbent, money) · missing: prior, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-08 (6 days ago)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 e3b0c44298fc · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: D · Held. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.