Home / Races / Rhode Island / U.S. Senate

RI2026

U.S. Senate · Rhode Island · 2026

Name: U.S. Senate, Rhode Island — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running

Community poll

Model rating Leans Democratic (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

4 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 15/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 11 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

John F. ReedU.S. Senate — RI · FEC S6RI00163Democratic IncumbentOn the ballotFEC raised$4.5M Raymond Tyler McKayU.S. Senate — RI · FEC S4RI00051RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$180K

Ran in the primary (1)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.

Connor BurbridgeU.S. Senate — RI · FEC S6RI00270DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$27K

Other filers (1)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Michael BahryU.S. Senate — RI · FEC S6RI00288IndependentNot on the November ballotFEC raised$5K

Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Rhode_Island&oldid=1377311002

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

4 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

Jack Reed (D)Raymond McKay (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
John F. Reed Democratic	$4,468,936	$3,384,639	$3,093,684	2026-08-20
Connor Burbridge Democratic	$26,856	$26,856	$0	2026-09-30
Michael Bahry Independent	$5,050	$2,844	$2,206	2026-06-30
Raymond Tyler McKay Republican	$180,468	$173,238	$7,569	2026-08-20

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary

Jack Reed (incumbent) won	98,473	76.8%
Connor Burbridge	17,192	13.4%
Luis Daniel Muñoz	12,529	9.8%

Republican primary

Raymond McKay won	20,354	100.0%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-09-09 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (3)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=451 · Jack Reed (D) 54%, Connor Burbridge (D) 18% · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=337 · Jack Reed (D) 63%, Connor Burbridge (D) 25% · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-04-16–2026-04-20 · n=323 · Jack Reed (D) 65%, Connor Burbridge (D) 15% · release

Signals (experimental)

Attention 15 Vector D · Held

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

15OUT OF 100Low attention

Attention percentile0th

7-day momentum50 / 100

Source breadth0% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, pres, incumbent, money) · missing: prior, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-19 (11 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin D +16.5Presidential lean of the seat (2024 D +14.2, national swing D +10.5)D +24.7Fundraising velocity (FEC)D +8.0IncumbencyD +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 5e54b553004b · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: D · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.