Shapiro +25
- Josh Shapiro Democratic: 59%
- Stacy Garrity Republican: 34%
PA2026
Governor · Pennsylvania · 2026
General election · 3 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledJosh Shapiro (D) won this race.
- Josh ShapiroDemocraticIncumbentWinnerno count in the source
Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Ken Krawchuk (I), Stacy Garrity (R).
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 9:24 PM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 4, 10:47 AM ET
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageGovernor · Pennsylvania
Josh Shapiro
63%
Stacy Garrity
37%
Verified poll average · 4 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-05
Verified polls Shapiro leads Garrity by 26.9 points in our average of verified polls.
4 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-10-05. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 59/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-13. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Other filers (5)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/
Early vote in Pennsylvania
276,438 ballots cast statewide as of 2026-10-13 · registered Democrats 71.8%, Republicans 20.2%, unaffiliated 0.0%. Turnout by registration, not votes; never part of the rating. Full tracker →
Shapiro +27
- Josh Shapiro Democratic: Incumbent63.4%
- Stacy Garrity Republican: 36.6%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-PA-GOV
Sourcehttps://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/pa/pa10072026_pgrx47.pdf
Retrieved2026-11-14
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
63.4% Josh Shapiro36.6% Stacy Garrity
Josh Shapiro (D)Stacy Garrity (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre D+26.9. Four times in five the result lands between D+33.6 and D+20.2; nine in ten between D+35.5 and D+18.3. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: >99%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (4 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
Democratic primary · official results
| Josh Shapiro (incumbent) won | 1,116,960 | 100.0% |
Republican primary
| Stacy Garrity won | 641,534 | 100.0% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-13 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-05-19, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (2)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Hypothetical matchup · Quinnipiac University · 2025-09-25–2025-09-29 · n=1,579 · Josh Shapiro (D) 56%,Doug Mastriano (R) 39% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-09-18–2025-09-19 · n=524 · Doug Mastriano 39%,Stacy Garrity (R) 20% · release
In the news
- Democrats flock to Denver for a post-midterms introspection-turned-celebration
- Dems admit uncomfortable election sweep truth as party descends on Denver to shape 2028 without a frontrunner
- Shapiro vows minimum wage hike, abortion protections with Pennsylvania’s Democratic trifecta
- Anti-Israel socialist silent on Jewish business boycott in district he's set to represent
- Josh Shapiro says Texas won’t replace Pennsylvania as the ‘ultimate swing state’
- Democrats have a majority of governors. That could have political ripple effects.
- Kathy Hochul entertains massive political promotion as Democrats look ahead to 2028
- Gov. Josh Shapiro urges Democrats to prioritize healthcare, food assistance
- Shapiro launches super PAC as presidential speculation mounts
- 'Like an eight-year-old playing with toy soldiers': Shapiro says it's up to Congress to oust Hegseth
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 59 Vugol Vector D · Held
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
59OUT OF 100Moderate attention
Vugol Attention percentile98th
7-day momentum2 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked
Candidate attention share · trailing 7 days72% D · 28% R
Josh Shapiro (D) 72% · volume 51 / 7dStacy Garrity (R) 28% · volume 19 / 7d
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness5 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, incumbent, pulse) · missing: money, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-13 (yesterday)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 a31818cf9d45 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: D · Held. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.