Governor · Oregon · 2026
General election · 3 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledTina Kotek (D) won this race with 53.3% of the vote, 9.6 points ahead.
- Tina KotekDemocraticWinner53.3%1,051,936 votes
- Christine DrazanRepublican43.8%862,989 votes
- Brett SmithPacific Green2.9%57,489 votes
- Margin
- 188,947 votes (9.6 points)
- Called
- First seen here, Nov 4, 6:05 AM ET
- Last updated
- Nov 14, 1:59 AM ET
- Source
- State results feed
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Model rating Leans Democratic (Held) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.
6 polls on file, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 44/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 5 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-15. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ballot source: https://results.oregonvotes.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.
Polling average
6 polls on file for this race, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), visible below, not averaged.
Results
Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.
general election · state results feed, unofficial
| Tina Kotek won | 1,051,936 | 53.3% |
| Christine Drazan | 862,989 | 43.8% |
| Brett Smith | 57,489 | 2.9% |
Tina Kotek leads by 188,947 votes.
Democratic primary · official results
| Tina Kotek (incumbent) won | 385,999 | 83.6% |
| Write-in | 14,228 | 3.1% |
| Brittany N. Jones | 13,939 | 3.0% |
| Forest "Fora" Alexander | 12,684 | 2.8% |
| Miranda Weigler | 10,161 | 2.2% |
| Tristan Sheppard | 6,006 | 1.3% |
| James Atkinson IV | 5,902 | 1.3% |
| David Beem | 4,863 | 1.1% |
| Steve Laible | 3,692 | 0.8% |
| Cal Kishawi | 2,422 | 0.5% |
| Donnie Beckwith | 1,799 | 0.4% |
Republican primary
| Christine Drazan won | 172,474 | 40.5% |
| Ed Diehl | 140,458 | 33.0% |
| Chris Dudley | 71,929 | 16.9% |
| David Medina | 21,742 | 5.1% |
| Danielle Bethell | 9,629 | 2.3% |
| Brad Peters | 1,827 | 0.4% |
| Write-in | 1,622 | 0.4% |
| Paul Romero | 1,615 | 0.4% |
| Kyle Duyck | 1,562 | 0.4% |
| Robert Neuman | 680 | 0.2% |
| Martin Ward | 539 | 0.1% |
| Hope Dalrymple | 534 | 0.1% |
| DeAngelo Turner | 377 | 0.1% |
| Wen Waddell | 321 | 0.1% |
| Tim Youker | 248 | 0.1% |
Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser state-feed-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-05-19, Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (5)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Hypothetical matchup · Hoffman Research Group (partisan) · 2026-05-11–2026-05-12 · n=603 · Chris Dudley (R) 48%,Tina Kotek (D) 44% · release
- Republican primary · Hoffman Research Group (partisan) · 2026-04-23–2026-04-24 · n=620 · Christine Drazan (R) 35%,Ed Diehl 18%,Chris Dudley 14% · release
- Republican primary · Nelson Research · 2026-04-14–2026-04-17 · n=515 · Christine Drazan (R) 37%,Ed Diehl 18%,Chris Dudley 18%,David Medina 7%,Danielle Bethell 2% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · FM3 Research (partisan) · 2026-01-28–2026-02-04 · n=1,065 · Tina Kotek (D) 45%,Chris Dudley (R) 35% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · FM3 Research (partisan) · 2026-01-28–2026-02-04 · n=1,065 · Tina Kotek (D) 43%,Ed Diehl (R) 37% · release
In the news
- Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek wins re-election bid in Oregon
- An hour-by-hour guide to watching the 2026 midterms, and when we’ll know who controls Congress
- Voters weigh governors’ races – and other big local elections
- Final rating changes: 63 races move toward Democrats, 1 toward Republicans
- Democrats call for gun control after Oregon school shooter reportedly uses shotgun purchased by his mother
- Blue-state governor’s race defies expectations as Republican closes in: Power Rankings
- Fox News Power Rankings: The biggest surprises come after October
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 44 Vugol Vector D · Held
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Vugol Tensor
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre D+15.3. Four times in five the result lands between D+24.7 and D+5.9; nine in ten between D+27.4 and D+3.2. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 98%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 bff93ca731c3 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: D · Held. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.