OK2026

Governor · Oklahoma · 2026

Name: Governor, Oklahoma — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Republican (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 48/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated today. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Cyndi MunsonGovernor — OKDemocraticOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Mike MazzeiGovernor — OKRepublicanOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file

Other filers (3)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Jerry GriffinGovernor — OKIndependentNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file Orlando Lynn BushGovernor — OKIndependentNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file Robert Brooks Sr.Governor — OKIndependentNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file

Ballot source: https://results.okelections.gov/OKER/?elecDate=20260616

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no polls yet

No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Republican primary runoff

Mike Mazzei won	186,734	50.3%
Gentner Drummond	184,681	49.7%

Democratic primary · official results

Cyndi Munson won	129,225	74.9%
Constance Johnson	38,414	22.3%
Arya Azma	4,824	2.8%

Republican primary · official results

Gentner Drummond advanced	105,832	26.3%
Mike Mazzei advanced	104,691	26.0%
Chip Keating	74,379	18.5%
Jake A. Merrick	58,341	14.5%
Charles McCall	47,519	11.8%
Leisa Mitchell Haynes	4,121	1.0%
Jennifer Domenico	3,796	0.9%
Kenneth Sturgell	2,935	0.7%
Calup Anthony Taylor	1,485	0.4%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-06-16 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
2026-08-25 — Runoff: U.S. Senate
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (16)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Republican primary runoff · CHS & Associates (partisan) · 2026-08-02–2026-08-04 · n=600 · Gentner Drummond 44%, Mike Mazzei (R) 44% · release
Republican primary runoff · Pulse Decision Science (partisan) · 2026-06-21–2026-06-23 · n=606 · Mike Mazzei (R) 44%, Gentner Drummond 38% · release
Republican primary runoff · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-06-18–2026-06-19 · n=600 · Gentner Drummond 44%, Mike Mazzei (R) 42% · release
Republican primary · JMC Analytics (partisan) · 2026-06-02–2026-06-03 · n=550 · Mike Mazzei (R) 26%, Gentner Drummond 21%, Chip Keating 12%, Jake Merrick 12%, Charles McCall 8% · release
Republican primary · Pulse Decision Science (partisan) · 2026-05-26–2026-05-28 · n=608 · Gentner Drummond 24%, Mike Mazzei (R) 22%, Chip Keating 17%, Charles McCall 12% · release
Republican primary · NonDoc Media · 2026-05-21–2026-05-25 · n=457 · Gentner Drummond 22%, Mike Mazzei (R) 22%, Chip Keating 21%, Charles McCall 18%, Jake Merrick 7% · release
Republican primary · Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (partisan) · 2026-01-26–2026-01-30 · n=600 · Gentner Drummond 36%, Charles McCall 14%, Chip Keating 13%, Mike Mazzei (R) 13%, Jake Merrick 5% · release
Republican primary · yes. every kid. · 2025-10-29–2025-10-31 · n=513 · Charles McCall 22%, Gentner Drummond 22%, Chip Keating 7%, Mike Mazzei (R) 2%, Jake Merrick 2% · release
Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2025-10-25–2025-10-27 · n=855 · Charles McCall 31%, Gentner Drummond 20%, Chip Keating 5%, Jake Merrick 3%, Mike Mazzei (R) 1% · release
Republican primary · Stratus Intelligence (partisan) · 2025-10-15–2025-10-17 · n=806 · Charles McCall 32%, Gentner Drummond 30%, Chip Keating 7%, Jake Merrick 4%, Mike Mazzei (R) 1% · release
Republican primary · Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (partisan) · 2025-08-04–2025-08-10 · n=500 · Gentner Drummond 43%, Ryan Walters 8%, Charles McCall 8%, Chip Keating 4%, Jake Merrick 3%, Mike Mazzei (R) 2% · release
Republican primary · Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (partisan) · 2025-08-04–2025-08-10 · n=400 · Gentner Drummond 48%, Charles McCall 10%, Chip Keating 4%, Jake Merrick 4%, Mike Mazzei (R) 2% · release
Republican primary · Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (partisan) · 2025-05-05–2025-05-09 · n=500 · Gentner Drummond 39%, Ryan Walters 12%, Matt Pinnell 10%, Charles McCall 5%, Chip Keating 3%, Mike Mazzei (R) 1%, Jake Merrick 1% · release
Republican primary · Victory Insights (partisan) · 2025-02-23–2025-02-25 · n=506 · Gentner Drummond 37%, Charles McCall 6%, Chip Keating 3%, Mike Mazzei (R) 1% · release
Republican primary · Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (partisan) · 2025-02-10–2025-02-15 · n=500 · Gentner Drummond 50%, Chip Keating 7%, Charles McCall 7% · release
Republican primary · Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (partisan) · 2025-02-10–2025-02-15 · n=500 · Gentner Drummond 44%, Ryan Walters 14%, Chip Keating 6%, Charles McCall 5% · release

Signals (experimental)

Attention 48 Vector R · Held

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

48OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile76th

7-day momentum0 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, pulse) · missing: incumbent, money, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-30 (today)

Vector component signals · estimated margin R +12.5Presidential lean of the seat (2024 R +34.3, national swing D +8.4)R +25.9Last result for this seat (2022 R +13.7, national swing D +8.5)R +5.2Attention shareD +2.2National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing × 0.8 for this office; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 0106a5a2b2c9 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: R · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.