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Home / Races / Oklahoma / U.S. House — OK-01
OK2026

U.S. House — OK-01 · Oklahoma · 2026

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Republican (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 25/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

John Thomas CroisantU.S. House — OK-01 · FEC H6OK01201DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$142KMark TedfordU.S. House — OK-01 · FEC H6OK01235RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$1.8M

Ran in the primary (6)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.

Courtney GillU.S. House — OK-01 · FEC H6OK01243RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$16KDan RooneyU.S. House — OK-01 · FEC H6OK01300RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$689KJed CochranU.S. House — OK-01 · FEC H6OK01292RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$177KKim DavidU.S. House — OK-01 · FEC H6OK01250RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$200KNathaniel Allen ButterfieldU.S. House — OK-01 · FEC H6OK01276RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$1.7MTodd WoodsU.S. House — OK-01 · FEC H6OK01326RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$154K

Other filers (4)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Dennis BakerU.S. House — OK-01 · FEC H4OK01107DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$11KErica WatkinsU.S. House — OK-01 · FEC H6OK01227DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$14KJackson LahmeyerU.S. House — OK-01 · FEC H6OK01284RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$416KJackson StallingsU.S. House — OK-01 · FEC H6OK01268RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$53K

Ballot source: https://results.okelections.gov/OKER/?elecDate=20260616

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no polls yet

No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handThrough
Courtney Gill Republican$15,706$14,929$1,4382026-06-30
Dan Rooney Republican$688,753$535,354$153,3992026-06-30
Dennis Baker Democratic$10,640$47,240$128,5662026-06-30
Erica Watkins Democratic$13,893$13,015$8782026-06-30
Jackson Lahmeyer Republican$415,914$405,172$10,7422026-06-30
Jackson Stallings Republican$52,910$52,910$02026-06-02
Jed Cochran Republican$177,212$176,081$1,1312026-06-30
John Thomas Croisant Democratic$141,972$105,393$36,5792026-06-30
Kim David Republican$200,155$148,322$51,8332026-06-30
Mark Tedford Republican$1,763,830$1,590,095$173,7352026-06-30
Nathaniel Allen Butterfield Republican$1,689,372$1,677,490$11,8822026-06-30
Todd Woods Republican$153,800$153,670$1302026-06-30

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Republican primary · official results

Mark Tedford advanced23,23032.2%
Jackson Lahmeyer advanced18,69925.9%
Nathan Butterfield11,53216.0%
Kim David4,7226.5%
Jed Cochran3,4194.7%
Courtney Gill2,9044.0%
Dan Rooney2,5203.5%
Todd Woods1,8782.6%
Nancy Dyson1,5462.1%
Kelly B. Walsh1,4522.0%
Paul Royse3510.5%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

  • 2026-06-16 — Primary election: U.S. House
  • 2026-08-25 — Runoff: U.S. House
  • 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Signals (experimental)

Attention 25 Vector R · Held

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0
25OUT OF 100Low attention
Attention percentile27th
7-day momentum4 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, money) · missing: pres, incumbent, pulse, poll
Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-27 (3 days ago)
Vector component signals · estimated margin R +14.8Fundraising velocity (FEC)R +8.0Last result for this seat (2024 R +27.3, national swing D +10.5)R +16.8National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Band: R · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.