Who is ahead in the 2026 Oklahoma Senate race?

Name: U.S. Senate, Oklahoma, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kevin Hern (R) won the OK Senate race with 57.2% of the vote. No verified poll average yet. The Vugol Vector model rates it Held (R), a snapshot of today, not a probability. Updated 2026-11-14.

Home / Races / Oklahoma / U.S. Senate

OK2026

U.S. Senate · Oklahoma · 2026

General election · 3 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

VecR 64 · HeldTenR 99%Att50

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Kevin Hern (R) won this race with 57.2% of the vote, 17.9 points ahead.

Kevin HernRepublicanWinner57.2%639,860 votes
N'Kiyla Jasmine ThomasDemocratic39.3%439,522 votes
Curtis StinnettIndependent1.3%14,635 votes
Ron MeinhardtIndependent1.3%14,504 votes
Sevier WhiteL0.9%10,209 votes

Margin: 200,338 votes (17.9 points)
Called: First seen here, Nov 3, 9:41 PM ET
Last updated: Nov 14, 6:05 AM ET
Source: Wikipedia · official results page

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is R. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

CandidatesU.S. Senate · Oklahoma

N'Kiyla Jasmine - Ann Thomas

DEM

Kevin Hern

REP

No verified poll yet · Vugol Vector: R Held

R · HeldVugol Vector model

Model rating Leans Republican (Held) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.

1 poll on file, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 50/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works

On the Oklahoma ballot, Nov 3, 2026 United States Senator, 5 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Oklahoma? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (3)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Kevin HernU.S. Senate - OK · FEC S6OK04247RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$10.9M N'Kiyla Jasmine - Ann ThomasU.S. Senate - OK · FEC S6OK04163DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$116K Ron MeinhardtU.S. Senate - OK · FEC S6OK04205IndependentOn the ballotFEC raised$16K

Ran in the primary (5)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.

Brian Matthew RagainU.S. Senate - OK · FEC S6OK04262RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$27K Ervin Stone YenU.S. Senate - OK · FEC S6OK04270DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$21K Gary Ty EnglandU.S. Senate - OK · FEC S6OK04288RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$19K Jim PriestU.S. Senate - OK · FEC S6OK04197DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$427K Troy Wesley GreenU.S. Senate - OK · FEC S6OK04171DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$31K

Other filers (2)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

James M. InhofeU.S. Senate - OK · FEC S4OK00083RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$155K Tammy SwearenginU.S. Senate - OK · FEC S6OK04148RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$30K

Ballot source: https://results.okelections.gov/OKER/?elecDate=20261103

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

1 poll on file for this race, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), visible below, not averaged.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Brian Matthew Ragain Republican	$26,855	$19,386	$7,469	2026-10-19
Ervin Stone Yen Democratic	$20,793	$20,793	$0	2026-07-15
Gary Ty England Republican	$19,412	$15,000	$4,412	2026-06-30
James M. Inhofe Republican	$154,687	$414,163	$64,088	2022-12-31
Jim Priest Democratic	$427,162	$427,162	$0	2026-10-14
Kevin Hern Republican	$10,862,233	$8,050,247	$2,811,987	2026-10-14
N'Kiyla Jasmine - Ann Thomas Democratic	$115,954	$92,789	$24,102	2026-10-14
Ron Meinhardt Independent	$15,903	$14,307	$1,596	2026-10-14
Tammy Swearengin Republican	$30,000	$63,675	$0	2024-12-31
Troy Wesley Green Democratic	$31,474	$30,323	$1,150	2026-09-30

Ad spending (FEC)

What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.

Candidate	Campaign's own ads	Outside groups for	Outside groups against
Kevin Hern Republican	$1.2M+ $412K mail · through 2026-06-30	$2.6M$2.1M ads · 7 groups	none reported
Jim Priest Democratic	$38K+ $52K mail · through 2026-08-05	none reported	none reported
Brian Matthew Ragain Republican	$9,841through 2026-05-27	none reported	none reported
Troy Wesley Green Democratic	$7,327+ $1,225 mail · through 2026-09-30	none reported	none reported
Ron Meinhardt Independent	$4,169+ $1 mail · through 2026-10-13	none reported	none reported
N'Kiyla Jasmine - Ann Thomas Democratic	$3,755+ $4,962 mail · through 2026-10-14	none reported	none reported

Biggest outside spenders

Kevin Hern. For: DEFENDING OUR VALUES PAC $808K, DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS $736K, AMERICAN MISSION $474K

Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-10-20, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-10-14); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.

general election · official results

Kevin Hern won	639,860	57.2%
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas	439,522	39.3%
Curtis Stinnett	14,635	1.3%
Ron Meinhardt	14,504	1.3%
Sevier White	10,209	0.9%

Democratic primary runoff

N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas won	79,229	61.2%
Jim Priest	50,249	38.8%

Democratic primary

N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas advanced	76,330	45.2%
Jim Priest advanced	40,290	23.9%
Troy Green	33,492	19.8%
Ervin Yen	11,363	6.7%
R.O. Joe Cassity Jr.	7,421	4.4%

Republican primary · official results

Kevin Hern won	267,222	69.8%
Ty England	51,875	13.5%
William Sean Buckner	26,444	6.9%
Brian Ragain	22,478	5.9%
Nick Hankins	15,066	3.9%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-06-16, Primary election: U.S. Senate
2026-08-25, Runoff: U.S. Senate
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. Senate

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (3)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Hypothetical matchup · CHS & Associates · 2026-08-03–2026-08-06 · n=500 · Kevin Hern (R) 48%,Jim Priest (D) 27% · release
Republican primary · JMC Analytics (partisan) · 2026-06-02–2026-06-03 · n=550 · Kevin Hern (R) 41%,Gary Ty England (R) 8%,Brian Ragain (R) 4%,William Sean Buckner 2%,Nick Hankins 1% · release
Republican primary · Pulse Decision Science (partisan) · 2026-03-07–2026-03-09 · n=510 · Kevin Hern (R) 52%,Kevin Stitt 40% · release

In the news

Ilhan Omar case is ‘large’ and targeting multiple people, reveals DHS SecretaryNew York Post · Oct 31
For under-50 Senate hopefuls, age isn’t just a numberRoll Call · Oct 30
DHS boss rips Mamdani’s ‘dangerous’ words and ‘inciting hostility’ after Bronx ICE shooting: He ‘won’t even stand up for his own NYPD officers’New York Post · Oct 9

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 50 Vugol Vector R · Held

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

50OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Vugol Attention percentile78th

7-day momentum4 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, pres, incumbent, money) · missing: prior, pulse, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-13 (yesterday)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Vugol Tensor

How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested

tensor-1.0.0

Centre R+16.0. Four times in five the result lands between R+6.6 and R+25.4; nine in ten between R+4.0 and R+28.1. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 1%.

Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 5be5167c35d9 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: R · Held. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.