Governor · Nevada · 2026
General election · 3 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Democratic (Open) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
7 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 5 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated
News attention 67/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 4 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_Nevada_gubernatorial_election&oldid=1377323693
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
7 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-09 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (5)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2026-03-10–2026-03-13 · n=845 · Aaron Ford (D) 37%, Matthew Winterhawk (R) 31% · release
- Republican primary · Noble Predictive Insights · 2026-03-10–2026-03-13 · n=306 · Joe Lombardo (R) 60%, Matthew Winterhawk 7%, Jose Zalaya 4%, Irina Hansen 4% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2026-03-10–2026-03-13 · n=845 · Aaron Ford (D) 36%, Jose Zalaya (R) 30% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2026-03-10–2026-03-13 · n=845 · Aaron Ford (D) 37%, Irina Hansen (R) 32% · release
- Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2025-12-11–2025-12-18 · n=555 · Aaron Ford (D) 48%, Alexis Hill 13% · release
In the news
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Signals (experimental)
Attention 67 Vector D · Open
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 ecc284607081 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: Toss-up (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.