Who is ahead in the 2026 Nevada Governor race?

Name: Governor, Nevada, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Aaron Ford (D) won the NV Governor race. No verified poll average yet. The Vugol Vector model rates it Open (D), a snapshot of today, not a probability. Updated 2026-11-14.

Home / Races / Nevada / Governor

NV2026

Governor · Nevada · 2026

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running

VecD 17 · OpenTenD 72%Att69

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

CalledFlip: R to D

Aaron Ford (D) won this race, defeating incumbent Joe Lombardo.

Aaron FordDemocraticWinnerno count in the source

Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Danielle Ford (I), Joe Lombardo (R).

Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 5:41 AM ET (revision)
Seat: Changed party: held by Joe Lombardo (R)
Last updated: Nov 13, 6:06 AM ET
Source: Wikipedia · official results page

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

CandidatesGovernor · Nevada

Aaron Ford

DEM

Joe Lombardo

RIncumbent

REP

No verified poll yet · Vugol Vector: D Open

Toss-upVugol Vector model

Verified polls Leans Democratic (Open) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.

2 verified polls averaged. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 69/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works

On the Nevada ballot, Nov 3, 2026 GOVERNOR, 3 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Nevada? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-13. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Joe LombardoGovernor - NVRepublican IncumbentOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Aaron FordGovernor - NVDemocraticOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file

Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_Nevada_gubernatorial_election&oldid=1385392577

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

2 verified polls

Latest verified pollVerified

Ford +2Within margin of error

Aaron Ford Democratic: 44%
Joe Lombardo Republican: 42%

Cite / verify

Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-NV-GOV

Sourcehttps://emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2026-poll-ford-and-lombardo/

Retrieved2026-11-14

Polling average Updates as polls arrive

2 verified inputs

Aaron Ford (D)Joe Lombardo (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-06-09, Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (5)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2026-03-10–2026-03-13 · n=845 · Aaron Ford (D) 37%,Matthew Winterhawk (R) 31% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Noble Predictive Insights · 2026-03-10–2026-03-13 · n=306 · Joe Lombardo (R) 60%,Matthew Winterhawk 7%,Jose Zalaya 4%,Irina Hansen 4% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2026-03-10–2026-03-13 · n=845 · Aaron Ford (D) 36%,Jose Zalaya (R) 30% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2026-03-10–2026-03-13 · n=845 · Aaron Ford (D) 37%,Irina Hansen (R) 32% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2025-12-11–2025-12-18 · n=555 · Aaron Ford (D) 48%,Alexis Hill 13% · pollster's site · release

In the news

Aaron Ford beats GOP incumbent in Nevada governor's raceCBS News · Nov 5
The biggest winners, losers and surprises from the 2026 midtermsDeseret News · Nov 5
Meet the history-makers of the 120th CongressRoll Call · Nov 4
Democrats gain full control of five state governments, further expanding the party’s powerNBC News · Nov 4
An hour-by-hour guide to watching the 2026 midterms, and when we’ll know who controls CongressNew York Post · Nov 3
Final rating changes: 63 races move toward Democrats, 1 toward RepublicansRoll Call · Oct 31
Black candidates for governor make history with midterm victoriesCBS News · Nov 4
How to watch critical 2026 midterm election races in TX, OH, MI, WI, GA, IA, NV, ME and FLFox News · Nov 2
At the Races: Unleash ObamaRoll Call · Oct 8
Democrat Aaron Ford unseats GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo in NevadaNBC News · Nov 4

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 69 Vugol Vector D · Open

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

69OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Vugol Attention percentile87th

7-day momentum51 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, incumbent) · missing: money, pulse, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-13 (yesterday)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Vugol Tensor

How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested

tensor-1.0.0

Centre D+4.4. Four times in five the result lands between D+13.8 and R+5.0; nine in ten between D+16.4 and R+7.7. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 72%.

Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 8e82b2e75150 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: Toss-up. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.