U.S. House — NV-02 · Nevada · 2026
General election · 3 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Republican (Anchored) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
1 poll on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated
News attention 15/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 11 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (8)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Nevada&oldid=1377191295
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
1 poll on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Flippo | $2,275,392 | $2,172,225 | $117,883 | 2026-06-30 |
| George Forbush | $36,086 | $30,551 | $5,535 | 2026-06-30 |
| Greg Kidd | $1,187,974 | $1,244,363 | $5,412 | 2026-06-30 |
| James Arnold Settelmeyer | $460,999 | $430,135 | $30,865 | 2026-06-30 |
| Joshua Russell Hebert | $19,712 | $19,565 | $8,049 | 2026-06-30 |
| Kathy L Durham | $68,339 | $68,339 | $0 | 2026-07-14 |
| Matthew William Fonken | $91,864 | $91,818 | $45 | 2026-06-30 |
| Mike Smith | $46,544 | $62,998 | $191 | 2026-06-30 |
| Morgan Leigh Wadsworth | $13,031 | $11,072 | $1,984 | 2026-06-30 |
| Teresa Benitez-Thompson | $257,087 | $116,479 | $140,607 | 2026-06-30 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Teresa Benitez-Thompson won | 23,706 | 45.6% |
| Greg Kidd | 11,714 | 22.5% |
| Kathy Durham | 5,973 | 11.5% |
| Morgan Wadsworth | 4,877 | 9.4% |
| Matthew Fonken | 3,204 | 6.2% |
| Gamaliel Zavala Enriquez | 863 | 1.7% |
| Josh Hebert (withdrawn) | 421 | 0.8% |
| Johnny E. Kerns | 375 | 0.7% |
| Mark Jolle (withdrawn) | 357 | 0.7% |
| Samuel White (withdrawn) | 320 | 0.6% |
| Gerold Gorman | 221 | 0.4% |
Republican primary
| David Flippo won | 38,174 | 46.9% |
| James Settelmeyer | 28,131 | 34.5% |
| George Forbush | 3,337 | 4.1% |
| Mike Smith | 2,762 | 3.4% |
| Tom Doyle | 1,717 | 2.1% |
| Fred Simon | 1,616 | 2.0% |
| Jennifer Billat | 1,464 | 1.8% |
| Jesse Watts (withdrawn) | 1,264 | 1.6% |
| Andrea Lowe | 1,130 | 1.4% |
| Rick Shepherd | 720 | 0.9% |
| Jerry Olsen | 608 | 0.7% |
| Sherman Tylawsky | 278 | 0.3% |
| Bruce Grego | 223 | 0.3% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-09 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (3)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Hypothetical matchup · GBAO (partisan) · 2026-08-31–2026-09-03 · n=500 · Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) 38%, David Flippo (R) 37%, Lynn Champan (I) 14% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · GBAO (partisan) · 2026-08-31–2026-09-03 · n=500 · Generic Republican 48%, Generic Democrat 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Strategies 360 · 2026-08-22–2026-08-26 · n=400 · David Flippo (R) 45%, Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) 42%, Lynn Champan (I) 7% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention 15 Vector R · Anchored
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 096d5f4d669b · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: R · Anchored (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.