U.S. House — NH-01 · New Hampshire · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Democratic (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
1 poll on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention — — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. First run pending. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (9)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.
Other filers (2)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_New_Hampshire&oldid=1377255686
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
1 poll on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Dilorenzo | $2,500,778 | $2,311,692 | $189,086 | 2026-08-19 |
| Brian Cole | $486,395 | $477,638 | $8,757 | 2026-08-19 |
| Carleigh Beriont | $587,148 | $534,572 | $52,576 | 2026-08-19 |
| Chris Bright | $24,604 | $25,321 | $1,132 | 2026-06-30 |
| Christian Urrutia | $1,243,570 | $1,173,142 | $70,428 | 2026-08-19 |
| Elizabeth Girard | $177,620 | $177,620 | $0 | 2026-01-30 |
| Heath Howard | $54,567 | $58,696 | $11,481 | 2026-08-19 |
| Hollie T Noveletsky | $588,742 | $445,871 | $142,871 | 2026-08-19 |
| Lindsey Anderson | $80,729 | $80,571 | $158 | 2026-09-30 |
| Maura Corby Sullivan | $3,635,661 | $2,853,018 | $789,866 | 2026-08-19 |
| Melissa Bailey | $210,986 | $95,349 | $115,636 | 2026-06-30 |
| Sarah Chadzynski | $107,321 | $106,572 | $749 | 2026-08-19 |
| Stefany Shaheen | $2,432,372 | $1,828,170 | $604,203 | 2026-08-19 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Stefany Shaheen won | 29,571 | 36.9% |
| Maura Sullivan | 27,859 | 34.7% |
| Carleigh Beriont | 18,032 | 22.5% |
| Christian Urrutia (withdrawn) | 1,220 | 1.5% |
| Sarah Chadzynski | 1,170 | 1.5% |
| Heath Howard (withdrawn) | 848 | 1.1% |
| Sarah Bella Spinosa | 555 | 0.7% |
| Bill Conlin | 455 | 0.6% |
| Matthew Emerson | 348 | 0.4% |
Republican primary
| Anthony DiLorenzo won | 29,409 | 51.5% |
| Hollie Noveletsky | 14,980 | 26.2% |
| Brian Cole | 8,050 | 14.1% |
| Melissa Bailey (withdrawn) | 2,313 | 4.0% |
| Lindsey Anderson | 1,935 | 3.4% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-09-08 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (12)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Democratic primary · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-08-28–2026-08-31 · n=1,068 · Maura Sullivan (D) 33%, Stefany Shaheen (D) 27%, Carleigh Beriont (D) 12%, Christian Urrutia (D) 4%, Heath Howard (D) 2%, Sarah Chadzynski (D) 0% · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=463 · Maura Sullivan (D) 24%, Stefany Shaheen (D) 19%, Carleigh Beriont (D) 11%, Heath Howard (D) 10%, Christian Urrutia (D) 4%, Sarah Chadzynski (D) 1% · release
- Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=464 · Holly Noveletsky (R) 28%, Anthony DiLorenzo (R) 25%, Brian Cole (R) 7% · release
- Republican primary · Saint Anselm College · 2026-08-17–2026-08-18 · n=351 · Anthony DiLorenzo (R) 30%, Holly Noveletsky (R) 17%, Brian Cole (R) 8%, Melissa Bailey (R) 1% · release
- Democratic primary · Saint Anselm College · 2026-08-17–2026-08-18 · n=359 · Maura Sullivan (D) 26%, Stefany Shaheen (D) 24%, Carleigh Beriont (D) 12%, Heath Howard (D) 7%, Christian Urrutia (D) 3%, Sarah Chadzynski (D) 0% · release
- Republican primary · Saint Anselm College · 2026-06-24–2026-06-25 · n=377 · Holly Noveletsky (R) 16%, Anthony DiLorenzo (R) 13%, Brian Cole (R) 8%, Melissa Bailey (R) 2% · release
- Democratic primary · Saint Anselm College · 2026-06-24–2026-06-25 · n=398 · Stefany Shaheen (D) 22%, Maura Sullivan (D) 15%, Heath Howard (D) 9%, Carleigh Beriont (D) 3%, Christian Urrutia (D) 3%, Sarah Chadzynski (D) 1% · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-01-15–2026-01-19 · n=893 · Stefany Shaheen (D) 33%, Heath Howard (D) 10%, Maura Sullivan (D) 8%, Sarah Chadzynski (D) 3%, Carleigh Beriont (D) 3%, Christian Urrutia (D) 3% · release
- Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-01-15–2026-01-19 · n=967 · Holly Noveletsky (R) 15%, Anthony DiLorenzo (R) 10%, Brian Cole (R) 4%, Melissa Bailey (R) 4%, Elizabeth Girard (R) 2% · release
- Democratic primary · Saint Anselm College · 2025-11-18–2025-11-19 · n=501 · Stefany Shaheen (D) 26%, Maura Sullivan (D) 6%, Heath Howard (D) 4%, Christian Urrutia (D) 1%, Carleigh Beriont (D) 1%, Sarah Chadzynski (D) 1% · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2025-09-17–2025-09-23 · n=236 · Stefany Shaheen (D) 29%, Maura Sullivan (D) 8%, Heath Howard (D) 4%, Christian Urrutia (D) 4%, Carleigh Beriont (D) 2%, Sarah Chadzynski (D) 2% · release
- Democratic primary · Saint Anselm College · 2025-08-26–2025-08-27 · n=413 · Stefany Shaheen (D) 23%, Maura Sullivan (D) 9%, Heath Howard (D) 4%, Christian Urrutia (D) 2%, Carleigh Beriont (D) 2%, Sarah Chadzynski (D) 1% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention — Vector D · Held
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Signals for this race are being collected. The first Attention score lands after the nightly run reaches it; nothing is estimated in the meantime.
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: D · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.