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NE2026

Governor · Nebraska · 2026

General election · 4 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running

Model rating Leans Republican (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

7 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated

News attention 44/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works

On the November ballot (4)

Certified by the state on 2026-09-11, checked 2026-09-29.

Official source: https://sos.nebraska.gov/sites/default/files/doc/elections/2026/Final_Statewide_General_Candidate_Filing_List_9.11.26.pdf

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

7 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

0306090d60d30dtoday
Jim Pillen (R)Lynne Walz (D)Rick Beard (L)Brett Lindstrom (A)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary

Lynne Walz won116,45891.5%
Larry Marvin10,8478.5%

Nebraska Legal Marijuana NOW Party primary · official results

Rick Beard won34969.1%
James Charvat15630.9%

Republican primary

Jim Pillen (incumbent) won142,30175.4%
John Walz18,0669.6%
Sheila Korth-Focken14,6217.8%
Gary Rogge6,9863.7%
Jacy Todd5,1252.7%
Sal Holguin1,6120.9%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

  • 2026-05-12 — Primary election: U.S. House
  • 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Signals (experimental)

Attention 44 Vector R · Held

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0
44OUT OF 100Moderate attention
Attention percentile63th
7-day momentum8 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, incumbent) · missing: money, pulse, poll
Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-29 (yesterday)
Vector component signals · estimated margin R +12.1Presidential lean of the seat (2024 R +20.5, national swing D +8.4)R +12.1Last result for this seat (2022 R +23.2, national swing D +8.5)R +14.8IncumbencyR +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-29), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing × 0.8 for this office; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Band: R · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.