Who is ahead in the 2026 Nebraska's 2nd District race?

Name: U.S. House - NE-02, Nebraska, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Denise Powell (D) won the NE-02 race with 56.7% of the vote. No verified poll average yet. The Vugol Vector model rates it Tilting (D), a snapshot of today, not a probability. Updated 2026-11-14.

Home / Races / Nebraska / U.S. House - NE-02

NE2026

U.S. House - NE-02 · Nebraska · 2026

General election · 3 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

VecD 27 · TiltingTenD 82%Att44

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Denise Powell (D) won this race with 56.7% of the vote, 16.0 points ahead.

Denise PowellDemocraticWinner56.7%145,402 votes
Brinker HardingRepublican40.7%104,498 votes
Eric ForemanL2.6%6,677 votes

Margin: 40,904 votes (16.0 points)
Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 4:55 AM ET (revision)
Last updated: Nov 14, 9:04 AM ET
Source: Wikipedia (House results table) · official results page

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

Certified ballotU.S. House - NE-02 · Nebraska

Denise Powell

DEM

Brinker Harding

REP

No verified poll yet · Vugol Vector: D Tilting

D · TiltingVugol Vector model

Verified polls Leans Democratic (Tilting) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.

1 verified poll averaged. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 44/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works

On the Nebraska ballot, Nov 3, 2026 Representative in Congress, District 02, 3 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Nebraska? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (3)

Certified by the state on 2026-09-11, checked 2026-11-13.

Brinker HardingU.S. House - NE-02 · FEC H6NE02208RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$2.9M Denise PowellU.S. House - NE-02 · FEC H6NE02174DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$5.1M

Also on the certified ballot: Eric Michael Foreman (Libertarian)

Not on the certified ballot (6)

Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.

Brett LindstromU.S. House - NE-02 · FEC H6NE02216RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$375K Crystal RhoadesU.S. House - NE-02 · FEC H6NE02257DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$183K James LeuschenU.S. House - NE-02 · FEC H6NE02240DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$394K John CavanaughU.S. House - NE-02 · FEC H6NE02190DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$1.4M Kishla AskinsU.S. House - NE-02 · FEC H6NE02224DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$902K Mark Edmund JohnstonU.S. House - NE-02 · FEC H6NE02166DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$10K

Official source: https://sos.nebraska.gov/sites/default/files/doc/elections/2026/Final_Statewide_General_Candidate_Filing_List_9.11.26.pdf

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

1 verified poll

Latest verified pollVerified

Powell +4Within margin of error

Denise Powell Democratic: 46%
Brinker Harding Republican: 42%

Cite / verify

Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-NE-02

Sourcehttps://results.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d94236a7-5861-4b7f-9d81-d5a81ab786cc

Retrieved2026-11-14

Polling average Updates as polls arrive

1 verified input

Denise Powell (D)Brinker Harding (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Brett Lindstrom Republican	$375,099	$375,099	$0	2026-07-15
Brinker Harding Republican	$2,850,577	$2,537,204	$313,373	2026-10-14
Crystal Rhoades Democratic	$182,791	$182,679	$112	2026-05-31
Denise Powell Democratic	$5,093,104	$4,612,631	$480,473	2026-10-14
James Leuschen Democratic	$393,804	$275,466	$118,338	2026-09-30
John Cavanaugh Democratic	$1,368,619	$1,356,773	$11,846	2026-09-30
Kishla Askins Democratic	$901,522	$901,522	$0	2026-06-30
Mark Edmund Johnston Democratic	$10,147	$10,147	$0	2026-03-31

Ad spending (FEC)

What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.

Candidate	Campaign's own ads	Outside groups for	Outside groups against
Denise Powell Democratic	$618K+ $47K mail · through 2026-06-30	$3.9M$3M ads · 18 groups	$312K$120K ads · 4 groups
John Cavanaugh Democratic	$762K+ $57K mail · through 2026-06-30	$301K$301K ads · 2 groups	$2.3M$2M ads · 7 groups
Brinker Harding Republican	$61K+ $24K mail · through 2026-06-30	$368K$0 ads · 5 groups	$1.7M$1.5M ads · 5 groups
Kishla Askins Democratic	$331K+ $15K mail · through 2026-06-30	none reported	none reported
Brett Lindstrom Republican	$40Kthrough 2026-03-31	none reported	none reported
Crystal Rhoades Democratic	$23K+ $10K mail · through 2026-05-12	none reported	none reported

Biggest outside spenders

Denise Powell. For: FIGHT FOR NEBRASKA PAC $1.3M, CHC BOLD PAC $532K, BOLD America $419K. Against: NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $122K, PROGRESSIVE PROMISE $100K, CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. $69K
John Cavanaugh. For: Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC $286K, PROGRESSIVE PROMISE $15K. Against: New Democrat Majority $735K, FIGHT FOR NEBRASKA PAC $675K, LEAD LEFT PAC $435K
Brinker Harding. For: CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. $324K, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $39K, NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND $2,344. Against: HMP $1.5M, CFFE PAC $194K, Building Together $12K

Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-13, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-06-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.

general election

Denise Powell won	145,402	56.7%
Brinker Harding	104,498	40.7%
Eric Foreman	6,677	2.6%

Democratic primary

Denise Powell won	22,516	38.8%
John Cavanaugh	21,115	36.4%
Crystal Rhoades	8,180	14.1%
Kishla Askins	3,499	6.0%
Melanie Williams	2,222	3.8%
James Leuschen (withdrawn)	320	0.6%
Van Argyrakis	152	0.3%

Libertarian primary

Eric Foreman won	388	100.0%

Republican primary

Brinker Harding won	39,689	100.0%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0+wiki-house-summary-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-05-12, Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (2)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2026-01-08–2026-01-12 · n=600 · John Cavanaugh (D) 43%,Crystal Rhoades (D) 15%,Denise Powell (D) 10%,Kishla Askins (D) 4% · release
Democratic primary · GBAO (partisan) · 2025-07-21–2025-07-23 · n=400 · John Cavanaugh (D) 36%,Crystal Rhoades (D) 15%,Denise Powell (D) 9%,Kishla Askins (D) 4% · release

In the news

All the House districts that flipped in the midterm electionsCBS News · Nov 4
Outgoing Republican rep suggests Trump should not be leader of GOP if he loses big in midtermsNew York Post · Nov 1
Bill and Hillary Clinton make eleventh-hour midterm moves as party's old guard faces new realityFox News · Oct 15
2026 midterm election races to watchCBS News · Oct 6
Democrats eye Nebraska as an opportunity to take a Senate seat away from RepublicansNBC News · Sep 30

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 44 Vugol Vector D · Tilting

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

44OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Vugol Attention percentile66th

7-day momentum3 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, money, pulse) · missing: pres, incumbent, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-13 (yesterday)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Vugol Tensor

How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested

tensor-1.0.0

Centre D+6.7. Four times in five the result lands between D+16.1 and R+2.7; nine in ten between D+18.8 and R+5.4. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 82%.

Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 abdf6799c8f6 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: D · Tilting. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.