Home / Races / North Carolina / U.S. House — NC-01

NC2026

U.S. House — NC-01 · North Carolina · 2026

Name: U.S. House — NC-01, North Carolina — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 3 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running

Community poll

Model rating Leans Democratic (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

1 poll on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated

News attention 54/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

Certified by the state, checked 2026-09-29.

Don DavisU.S. House — NC-01 · FEC H2NC02287Democratic IncumbentOn the ballotFEC raised$4.3M Laurie BuckhoutU.S. House — NC-01 · FEC H4NC01137RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$3.8M

Not on the certified ballot (4)

Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.

Asa Bryant Buck IIIU.S. House — NC-01 · FEC H6NC01165RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$339K Ashley Nicole RussellU.S. House — NC-01 · FEC H6NC01140RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$222K Bobby HanigU.S. House — NC-01 · FEC H6NC01132RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$361K Sandy RobersonU.S. House — NC-01 · FEC H2NC02253RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$3.5M

Official source: https://dl.ncsbe.gov/Elections/2026/Candidate%20Filing/Candidate_Listing_2026.csv

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

1 poll on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Don Davis Democratic	$4,287,386	$987,862	$3,570,366	2026-06-30
Asa Bryant Buck III Republican	$339,405	$339,405	$0	2026-07-15
Ashley Nicole Russell Republican	$221,698	$221,698	$0	2026-06-30
Bobby Hanig Republican	$361,096	$360,859	$237	2026-06-30
Laurie Buckhout Republican	$3,793,077	$1,989,720	$1,829,661	2026-06-30
Sandy Roberson Republican	$3,539,477	$3,526,389	$22,515	2026-06-30

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Republican primary · official results

Laurie Buckhout won	26,624	39.5%
Asa Buck	23,227	34.5%
Bobby Hanig	10,924	16.2%
Eric Rouse	3,626	5.4%
Ashley-Nicole Russell	2,975	4.4%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-03-03 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-05-12 — Runoff: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (5)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Hypothetical matchup · GQR (partisan) · 2026-06-22–2026-06-28 · n=500 · Don Davis (D) 45%, Laurie Buckhout (R) 41%, Tom Bailey (L) 8% · release
Hypothetical matchup · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-04-25–2026-04-29 · n=842 · Generic Republican 46%, Generic Democrat 42% · release
Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-02-06–2026-02-08 · n=500 · Laurie Buckhout (R) 26%, Asa Buck (R) 22%, Bobby Hanig (R) 11%, Eric Rouse 5% · release
Hypothetical matchup · GQR (partisan) · 2026-01-29–2026-02-02 · n=500 · Generic Republican 47%, Generic Democrat 43% · release
Hypothetical matchup · GQR (partisan) · 2026-01-29–2026-02-02 · n=500 · Don Davis (D) 42%, Laurie Buckhout (R) 39%, Tom Bailey (L) 9% · release

Signals (experimental)

Attention 54 Vector D · Tilting

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

54OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile84th

7-day momentum7 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, incumbent, money) · missing: pres, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-28 (2 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin D +8.0Fundraising velocity (FEC)R +3.8Last result for this seat (2024 D +1.7, national swing D +10.5)D +12.2IncumbencyD +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-29), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 8b175b46f35f · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: D · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.