Tied
- Don Davis Democratic: 41%
- Laurie Buckhout Republican: 41%
NC2026
U.S. House - NC-01 · North Carolina · 2026
General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledDon Davis (D) won this race with 50.1% of the vote, 3.4 points ahead.
- Don DavisDemocraticWinner50.1%157,506 votes
- Laurie BuckhoutRepublican46.7%146,707 votes
- Tom BaileyLibertarian3.2%9,945 votes
- Margin
- 10,799 votes (3.4 points)
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 10:01 AM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 15, 6:05 AM ET
- Source
- Wikipedia · official results page
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Certified ballotU.S. House - NC-01 · North Carolina
Don Davis
DEM
Laurie Buckhout
REP
No verified poll yet · Vugol Vector: D Tilting
Verified polls Leans Democratic (Tilting) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.
1 verified poll averaged. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 38/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 5 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
Certified by the state, checked 2026-11-15.
Not on the certified ballot (4)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://dl.ncsbe.gov/Elections/2026/Candidate%20Filing/Candidate_Listing_2026.csv
Early vote in North Carolina
2,837,524 ballots cast statewide as of 2026-11-15 · registered Democrats 38.4%, Republicans 26.1%, unaffiliated 35.2%. Turnout by registration, not votes; never part of the rating. Full tracker →
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-NC-01
Sourcehttps://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/NRCC-NC-01-Survey-Memo-1.pdf
Retrieved2026-11-15
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Davis | $5,805,482 | $5,250,506 | $825,818 | 2026-10-14 |
| Asa Bryant Buck III | $339,405 | $339,405 | $0 | 2026-07-15 |
| Ashley Nicole Russell | $221,698 | $221,698 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Bobby Hanig | $361,096 | $360,859 | $237 | 2026-09-30 |
| Laurie Buckhout | $4,787,737 | $3,376,140 | $1,437,901 | 2026-10-14 |
| Sandy Roberson | $3,539,477 | $3,532,887 | $16,018 | 2026-09-30 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laurie Buckhout | $596K | $2.6M | $17.9M |
| Don Davis | $2.3M | $4.2M | $7.3M |
| Asa Bryant Buck III | $226K | ||
| Bobby Hanig | $72K | $730 | |
| Ashley Nicole Russell | $10K | ||
| Sandy Roberson | $6,400 |
Biggest outside spenders
- Laurie Buckhout. For: AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION PAC $723K, CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. $535K, AMERICAN MISSION $509K. Against: HMP $11.1M, DMFI PAC $5M, CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEE $945K
- Don Davis. For: WITH HONOR FUND III, INC. $2.7M, Rolling Sea Action Fund $480K, HMP $218K. Against: SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC. $6M, RESTORATION OF AMERICA PAC $772K, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $280K
- Bobby Hanig. Against: WFW ACTION FUND INC $730
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-13, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.
general election · state results feed, unofficial
| Don Davis won | 157,506 | 50.1% |
| Don Davis (incumbent) won | 157,490 | 50.1% |
| Laurie Buckhout | 146,707 | 46.7% |
| Laurie Buckhout | 146,696 | 46.7% |
| Tom Bailey | 9,945 | 3.2% |
| Tom Bailey | 9,944 | 3.1% |
Don Davis leads by 10,799 votes. 100% of reporting units counted.
Republican primary · official results
| Laurie Buckhout won | 26,624 | 39.5% |
| Asa Buck | 23,227 | 34.5% |
| Bobby Hanig | 10,924 | 16.2% |
| Eric Rouse | 3,626 | 5.4% |
| Ashley-Nicole Russell | 2,975 | 4.4% |
Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-11 · parser state-feed-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-03-03, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-05-12, Runoff: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (8)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Hypothetical matchup · RedBox Research (partisan) · 2026-10-20–2026-10-23 · n=1,468 · Don Davis (D) 45%,Laurie Buckhout (R) 44%,Tom Bailey (L) 2% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-10-06–2026-10-08 · n=623 · Laurie Buckhout (R) 43%,Don Davis (D) 42%,Tom Bailey (L) 2% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · GQR (partisan) · 2026-09-29–2026-10-04 · n=500 · Don Davis (D) 47%,Laurie Buckhout (R) 39%,Tom Bailey (L) 8% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · GQR (partisan) · 2026-06-22–2026-06-28 · n=500 · Don Davis (D) 45%,Laurie Buckhout (R) 41%,Tom Bailey (L) 8% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-04-25–2026-04-29 · n=842 · Generic Republican 46%,Generic Democrat 42% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-02-06–2026-02-08 · n=500 · Laurie Buckhout (R) 26%,Asa Buck (R) 22%,Bobby Hanig (R) 11%,Eric Rouse 5% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · GQR (partisan) · 2026-01-29–2026-02-02 · n=500 · Generic Republican 47%,Generic Democrat 43% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · GQR (partisan) · 2026-01-29–2026-02-02 · n=500 · Don Davis (D) 42%,Laurie Buckhout (R) 39%,Tom Bailey (L) 9% · release
In the news
- At the Races: Regional realignment
- How North Carolina emerged as one of Democrats’ biggest midterm bright spots: From the Politics Desk
- Trump's redistricting gamble faces reckoning as GOP holdouts claim vindication
- How the ‘blue tsunami’ crested in North Carolina
- The biggest winners, losers and surprises from the 2026 midterms
- Did Republican efforts to redistrict the House turn into a dummymander?
- NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson loses reelection in North Carolina
- Republicans redrew maps in effort to secure midterm victories. It backfired
- 2026 midterm election races to watch
- How redrawn House districts voted in the midterms
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 38 Vugol Vector D · Tilting
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
38OUT OF 100Low attention
Vugol Attention percentile51th
7-day momentum6 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked
Candidate attention share · trailing 7 days100% D · 0% R
Don Davis (D) 100% · volume 21 / 7d
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, incumbent, money) · missing: pres, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-10 (5 days ago)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Vugol Tensor
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre D+8.6. Four times in five the result lands between D+18.0 and R+0.8; nine in ten between D+20.7 and R+3.5. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 88%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 be017b6c445a · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: D · Tilting. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.