U.S. Senate · North Carolina · 2026
General election · 4 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Democratic (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
37 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated
News attention 58/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
Certified by the state, checked 2026-09-29.
Also on the certified ballot: Michael Dublin (Green), Shannon W. Bray (Libertarian).
Not on the certified ballot (7)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://dl.ncsbe.gov/Elections/2026/Candidate%20Filing/Candidate_Listing_2026.csv
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
37 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian McGinnis | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-09-29 |
| Don Brown | $224,689 | $225,530 | $0 | 2026-04-13 |
| Marcus W. Williams | $5,656 | $5,656 | $0 | 2026-03-17 |
| Margot Dupre | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-09-29 |
| Michael Whatley | $11,272,504 | $7,810,806 | $3,461,698 | 2026-06-30 |
| Michele Morrow | $13,014 | $13,200 | $-187 | 2026-06-30 |
| Roy Cooper | $34,975,789 | $14,258,222 | $20,717,567 | 2026-06-30 |
| Thomas Lee Johnson | $6,720 | $4,627 | $0 | 2026-04-13 |
| Wiley Nickel | $2,972,089 | $3,009,089 | $0 | 2026-03-20 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary · official results
| Roy Cooper won | 761,345 | 92.0% |
| Justin Dues | 22,295 | 2.7% |
| Marcus Williams | 20,336 | 2.5% |
| Orrick Quick | 7,275 | 0.9% |
| Robert Colon | 6,777 | 0.8% |
Republican primary · official results
| Michael Whatley won | 405,140 | 64.6% |
| Don Brown | 97,891 | 15.6% |
| Thomas Johnson | 35,534 | 5.7% |
| Michele Morrow | 35,065 | 5.6% |
| Elizabeth Temple | 23,892 | 3.8% |
| Richard Dansie | 14,996 | 2.4% |
| Margot Dupre (disqualified) | 14,886 | 2.4% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-03-03 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-05-12 — Runoff: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (9)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Republican primary · Harper Polling (partisan) · 2026-02-22–2026-02-23 · n=600 · Michael Whatley (R) 38%, Don Brown (R) 8%, Michele Morrow (R) 2% · release
- Republican primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-01-05–2026-01-07 · n=530 · Michael Whatley (R) 36%, Don Brown (R) 6%, Michele Morrow (R) 4% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Harper Polling (partisan) · 2025-11-09–2025-11-10 · n=600 · Roy Cooper (D) 48%, Don Brown (R) 38% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Change Research (partisan) · 2025-03-31–2025-04-04 · n=867 · Roy Cooper (D) 46%, Thom Tillis (R) 44% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-03-04–2025-03-05 · n=662 · Roy Cooper (D) 47%, Thom Tillis (R) 43% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Victory Insights (partisan) · 2024-11-26–2024-11-29 · n=800 · Roy Cooper (D) 46%, Lara Trump (R) 44% · release
- Republican primary · Victory Insights (partisan) · 2024-11-26–2024-11-29 · n=800 · Lara Trump 65%, Thom Tillis (R) 11% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Victory Insights (partisan) · 2024-11-26–2024-11-29 · n=800 · Roy Cooper (D) 45%, Thom Tillis (R) 44% · release
- Republican primary · Campaign Viability Research (partisan) · 2024-11-13–2024-11-15 · n=800 · Thom Tillis (R) 42%, Mark Robinson 35% · release
In the news
- GOP doubts about Georgia and North Carolina have Republicans shifting focus in battle for Senate
- New polls have Democrats thinking big on Senate
- Cooper holds 11-point lead over Whatley in North Carolina Senate race: Poll
- Republicans say Democrats are extremists. These Democrats want to convince voters that's not true
- Republicans dump cash into red states as they try to hold the line against Democrats in the midterms
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Signals (experimental)
Attention 58 Vector D · Tilting
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 cff047818bbf · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: D · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.