U.S. House — MT-02 · Montana · 2026
General election · 3 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Republican (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
1 poll on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 47/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 4 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (1)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Montana&oldid=1377610069
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
1 poll on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Downing | $2,127,927 | $1,588,993 | $650,464 | 2026-06-30 |
| Brian James Miller | $19,174 | $14,573 | $3,166 | 2026-06-30 |
| Michael D. Eisenhauer | $296,253 | $164,060 | $140,122 | 2026-06-30 |
| Sam Lux | $15,083 | $9,585 | $5,675 | 2026-06-30 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Brian Miller won | 24,033 | 55.7% |
| Sam Lux | 11,759 | 27.2% |
| Jonathan Windy Boy | 7,484 | 17.2% |
Libertarian primary
| Patrick McCracken won | 1,846 | 100.0% |
Republican primary
| Troy Downing (incumbent) won | 82,088 | 100.0% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-02 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Signals (experimental)
Attention 47 Vector R · Held
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 b660ef3c3f74 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: R · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.