U.S. House - MT-01 · Montana · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Result
CalledSam Forstag (D) won this race with 50.5% of the vote, 3.9 points ahead.
- Sam ForstagDemocraticWinner50.5%135,096 votes
- Aaron FlintRepublican46.6%124,727 votes
- Nick SheedyL2.9%7,719 votes
- Margin
- 10,369 votes (3.9 points)
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 4:26 PM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 13, 6:28 AM ET
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Model rating Leans Democratic (Open) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.
1 poll on file, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 42/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 6 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (5)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Ballot source: https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/montana-primary-results-us-house/#1
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.
Polling average
1 poll on file for this race, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), visible below, not averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Flint | $2,856,139 | $2,447,986 | $408,153 | 2026-10-14 |
| Albert Olszewski | $426,973 | $436,922 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
| Christi Jacobsen | $552,743 | $552,743 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Matthew Rains | $272,761 | $238,857 | $33,904 | 2026-09-30 |
| Russell Tyler Cleveland | $457,635 | $445,913 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
| Ryan Busse | $790,340 | $788,750 | $1,591 | 2026-09-30 |
| Samuel Kelley Forstag | $4,312,110 | $3,585,985 | $726,126 | 2026-10-14 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Flint | $615K | $4M | $7.1M |
| Samuel Kelley Forstag | $279K | $1.9M | $8M |
| Christi Jacobsen | $387K | $15K | |
| Ryan Busse | $151K | $71K | |
| Albert Olszewski | $192K | ||
| Matthew Rains | $117K |
Biggest outside spenders
- Aaron Flint. For: THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER PAC $910K, AMERICAN MISSION $590K, Leadership in Action $544K. Against: HMP $3M, MONTANA VOTERS PAC $2.1M, Guardrails Alliance $793K
- Samuel Kelley Forstag. For: Progressive Turnout Project $678K, MONTANA VOTERS PAC $597K, Montanans for Public Lands $141K. Against: NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $7.6M, Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action $294K, CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. $91K
- Christi Jacobsen. For: Montana Way $15K
- Ryan Busse. For: SAVE AMERICA FUND $71K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-13, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
general election
| Sam Forstag won | 135,096 | 50.5% |
| Aaron Flint | 124,727 | 46.6% |
| Nick Sheedy | 7,719 | 2.9% |
Democratic primary
| Sam Forstag won | 26,276 | 37.3% |
| Ryan Busse | 23,196 | 33.1% |
| Russell Cleveland | 15,238 | 21.7% |
| Matt Rains | 5,518 | 7.9% |
Libertarian primary
| Nick Sheedy won | 1,202 | 100.0% |
Republican primary · official results
| Aaron Flint won | 41,170 | 50.1% |
| Christi Jacobsen | 18,877 | 23.0% |
| Al Olszewski | 16,686 | 20.3% |
| Ray Curtis | 5,479 | 6.7% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-13 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0+wiki-house-summary-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-02, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (9)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-10-31–2026-11-01 · n=311 · Aaron Flint (R) 49%,Sam Forstag (D) 49%,Nick Sheedy (L) 3% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · RedBox Research (partisan) · 2026-10-20–2026-10-23 · n=754 · Aaron Flint (R) 48%,Sam Forstag (D) 46%,Nick Sheedy (L) 2% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-10-12–2026-10-14 · n=329 · Sam Forstag (D) 50%,Aaron Flint (R) 46%,Nick Sheedy (L) 4% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · American Pulse · 2026-09-19–2026-09-24 · n=314 · Aaron Flint (R) 46%,Sam Forstag (D) 45%,Nick Sheedy (L) 5% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-09-20–2026-09-23 · n=500 · Sam Forstag (D) 47%,Aaron Flint (R) 44%,Nick Sheedy (L) 2% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics · 2026-08-27–2026-09-07 · n=375 · Aaron Flint (R) 42%,Sam Forstag (D) 41%,Nick Sheedy (L) 5% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Peak Insights (partisan) · 2026-01-12–2026-01-15 · n=400 · Ryan Zinke (R) 47%,Ryan Busse (D) 41% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Peak Insights (partisan) · 2026-01-12–2026-01-15 · n=400 · Ryan Zinke (R) 48%,Sam Forstag (D) 38% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tulchin Research (partisan) · 2025-11-22–2025-11-25 · n=424 · Ryan Busse (D) 47%,Ryan Zinke (R) 43% · release
In the news
- An hour-by-hour guide to watching the 2026 midterms, and when we’ll know who controls Congress
- Watch live: Vance speaks in competitive Montana House district
- Buttigieg endorses independent Seth Bodnar in Montana Senate race
- Montana’s House battleground: Can 2 political newcomers overcome party politics?
- Trump defends gifted Air Force One from Qatar and makes 2nd Amendment pitch as he campaigns for GOP
- Watch live: Trump rallies Montana Republicans with key House seat on the line
- Trump announces Montana 'super range' at midterm rally for Pentagon to test advanced war technology
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 42 Vugol Vector D · Open
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Vugol Tensor
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre D+3.1. Four times in five the result lands between D+12.5 and R+6.3; nine in ten between D+15.2 and R+9.0. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 66%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 14346b6e4682 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: Toss-up. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.