U.S. House — MT-01 · Montana · 2026
General election · 4 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Democratic (Open) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 15/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 11 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (5)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.
Ballot source: https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/montana-primary-results-us-house/#1
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Flint | $1,303,394 | $801,193 | $502,201 | 2026-06-30 |
| Albert Olszewski | $426,973 | $436,922 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
| Christi Jacobsen | $552,743 | $551,038 | $1,705 | 2026-06-30 |
| Matthew Rains | $272,569 | $238,593 | $33,976 | 2026-06-30 |
| Russell Tyler Cleveland | $457,635 | $445,913 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
| Ryan Busse | $790,340 | $788,347 | $1,993 | 2026-06-30 |
| Samuel Kelley Forstag | $1,382,873 | $832,794 | $550,079 | 2026-06-30 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Sam Forstag won | 26,276 | 37.3% |
| Ryan Busse | 23,196 | 33.1% |
| Russell Cleveland | 15,238 | 21.7% |
| Matt Rains | 5,518 | 7.9% |
Libertarian primary
| Nick Sheedy won | 1,202 | 100.0% |
Republican primary · official results
| Aaron Flint won | 41,170 | 50.1% |
| Christi Jacobsen | 18,877 | 23.0% |
| Al Olszewski | 16,686 | 20.3% |
| Ray Curtis | 5,479 | 6.7% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-02 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (5)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Hypothetical matchup · American Pulse · 2026-09-19–2026-09-24 · n=314 · Aaron Flint (R) 46%, Sam Forstag (D) 45%, Nick Sheedy (L) 5% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics · 2026-08-27–2026-09-07 · n=375 · Aaron Flint (R) 42%, Sam Forstag (D) 41%, Nick Sheedy (L) 5% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Peak Insights (partisan) · 2026-01-12–2026-01-15 · n=400 · Ryan Zinke (R) 47%, Ryan Busse (D) 41% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Peak Insights (partisan) · 2026-01-12–2026-01-15 · n=400 · Ryan Zinke (R) 48%, Sam Forstag (D) 38% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tulchin Research (partisan) · 2025-11-22–2025-11-25 · n=424 · Ryan Busse (D) 47%, Ryan Zinke (R) 43% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention 15 Vector D · Open
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 6b1fe26b0a77 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: Toss-up (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.