U.S. Senate · Montana · 2026
General election · 4 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Republican (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
11 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention — — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. First run pending. How it works
On the November ballot (4)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (3)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.
Other filers (1)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://electionresults.mt.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
11 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alani Ines Bankhead | $58,829 | $37,011 | $21,485 | 2026-06-30 |
| Kurt Alme | $1,984,861 | $534,142 | $1,450,719 | 2026-06-30 |
| Kyle Austin | $250,627 | $242,426 | $8,751 | 2026-06-30 |
| Lee Calhoun | $8,325 | $8,325 | $0 | 2026-06-05 |
| Michael Hummert | $12,330 | $4,447 | $8,628 | 2026-06-30 |
| Michael James Blackwolf | $26,144 | $25,616 | $528 | 2026-03-31 |
| Reilly Neill | $298,978 | $274,670 | $24,308 | 2026-06-30 |
| Seth Bodnar | $3,238,151 | $2,260,371 | $977,779 | 2026-06-30 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Alani Bankhead won | 48,772 | 43.6% |
| Reilly Neill | 36,880 | 33.0% |
| Michael Black Wolf | 14,678 | 13.1% |
| Christopher Kehoe | 7,108 | 6.4% |
| Michael Hummert | 4,305 | 3.9% |
Libertarian primary · official results
| Kyle Austin won | 1,819 | 53.3% |
| Tom Jandron | 1,592 | 46.7% |
Republican primary
| Kurt Alme won | 128,716 | 76.1% |
| Lee Calhoun | 23,872 | 14.1% |
| Charles WalkingChild | 16,474 | 9.7% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-02 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (16)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-07-23–2026-07-27 · n=517 · Kurt Alme (R) 59%, Alani Bankhead (D) 41% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-07-23–2026-07-27 · n=517 · Kurt Alme (R) 50%, Seth Bodnar (I) 45%, Kyle Austin (L) 5% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · GQR (partisan) · 2026-07-23–2026-07-26 · n=500 · Seth Bodnar (I) 44%, Kurt Alme (R) 40%, Kyle Austin (L) 11% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · GQR (partisan) · 2026-07-23–2026-07-26 · n=500 · Kurt Alme (R) 44%, Alani Bankhead (D) 40%, Kyle Austin (L) 13% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Hart Research (partisan) · 2026-06-18–2026-06-24 · n=800 · Kurt Alme (R) 49%, Alani Bankhead (D) 43% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Hart Research (partisan) · 2026-06-18–2026-06-24 · n=800 · Kurt Alme (R) 47%, Seth Bodnar (I) 45% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-06-16–2026-06-19 · n=400 · Kurt Alme (R) 56%, Alani Bankhead (D) 44% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-06-16–2026-06-19 · n=400 · Kurt Alme (R) 50%, Seth Bodnar (I) 50% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-06-16–2026-06-19 · n=400 · Kurt Alme (R) 56%, Generic Democrat 44% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-05-13–2026-05-18 · n=607 · Kurt Alme (R) 46%, Seth Bodnar (I) 26%, Reilly Neill (D) 24% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-05-13–2026-05-18 · n=607 · Kurt Alme (R) 56%, Generic Democrat 44% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Tavern Research (partisan) · 2026-05-13–2026-05-18 · n=607 · Kurt Alme (R) 50%, Seth Bodnar (I) 50% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-03-17–2026-03-20 · n=616 · Kurt Alme (R) 37%, Seth Bodnar (I) 35% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · American Pulse Research & Polling · 2026-02-14–2026-02-18 · n=607 · Steve Daines (R) 54%, Seth Bodnar (D) 40% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · American Pulse Research & Polling · 2026-02-14–2026-02-18 · n=607 · Steve Daines (R) 52%, Reilly Neill (D) 25%, Seth Bodnar (I) 16% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · yes. every kid. · 2026-01-23–2026-01-26 · n=500 · Steve Daines (R) 43%, Reilly Neill (D) 19%, Seth Bodnar (I) 15% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention — Vector R · Tilting
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Signals for this race are being collected. The first Attention score lands after the nightly run reaches it; nothing is estimated in the meantime.
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: R · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.