Who is ahead in the 2026 Minnesota Governor race?

Name: Governor, Minnesota, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Amy Klobuchar (D) won the MN Governor race. Klobuchar leads Demuth by 14.3 points in our average of verified polls. Verified poll average · 8 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-28. Updated 2026-11-14.

Home / Races / Minnesota / Governor

MN2026

Governor · Minnesota · 2026

General election · 3 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

VecD 60 · HeldTenD >99%Att59

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Amy Klobuchar (D) won this race.

Amy KlobucharDemocraticWinnerno count in the source

Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Lisa Demuth (R), Steven Young (I).

Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 12:09 AM ET (revision)
Last updated: Nov 4, 10:47 AM ET
Source: Wikipedia (race summary table) · official results page

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

Race poll averageGovernor · Minnesota

Amy Klobuchar

57%

Lisa Demuth

43%

Verified poll average · 8 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-28

D · Heldfrom verified polls

Verified polls Klobuchar leads Demuth by 14.3 points in our average of verified polls.

8 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-10-28. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 59/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 8 days ago. How it works

On the Minnesota ballot, Nov 3, 2026 Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Minnesota? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (3)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Amy KlobucharGovernor - MN · FEC S6MN00267DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Lisa DemuthGovernor - MNRepublicanOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Steve YoungGovernor - MNOtherOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file

Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_Minnesota_gubernatorial_election&oldid=1384738417

Polling average · 8 verified pollsVerified

Klobuchar +14

Amy Klobuchar Democratic: 57.2%
Lisa Demuth Republican: 42.8%

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

8 verified polls

Latest verified pollVerified

Klobuchar +12

Amy Klobuchar Democratic: 51%
Lisa Demuth Republican: 39%

Other 3% · Undecided 8%

Cite / verify

Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-MN-GOV

Sourcehttps://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-minnesota-statewide-races-inch-left-in-final-poll-before-election-day/

Retrieved2026-11-14

Polling average Updates as polls arrive

8 verified inputs

57.2% Amy Klobuchar42.8% Lisa Demuth

Amy Klobuchar (D)Lisa Demuth (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Vugol Tensor

How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction

tensor-1.0.0

Centre D+14.3. Four times in five the result lands between D+21.0 and D+7.6; nine in ten between D+22.9 and D+5.7. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: >99%.

Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (8 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.

Democratic primary

Amy Klobuchar won	615,041	89.7%
Kobey Layne	39,528	5.8%
Mohammad Wazwaz	9,633	1.4%
Po Vang	8,834	1.3%
Ole "Viking" Savior	5,491	0.8%
Tom Evenstad	3,843	0.6%
Bill Gates Jr.	3,380	0.5%

Republican primary

Lisa Demuth won	179,683	43.4%
Mike Lindell	134,282	32.5%
Kendall Qualls	88,416	21.4%
John Krhin	4,663	1.1%
Ross Nova	2,760	0.7%
Raul Estrada	2,408	0.6%
Loner Blue	1,393	0.3%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-08-11, Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (24)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Republican primary · KTSP/SurveyUSA · 2026-07-29–2026-08-04 · n=458 · Mike Lindell 34%,Lisa Demuth (R) 28%,Kendall Qualls 17% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · SurveyUSA · 2026-07-15–2026-07-20 · n=478 · Mike Lindell 35%,Lisa Demuth (R) 26%,Kendall Qualls 11% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Big Data Poll (partisan) · 2026-06-26–2026-06-29 · n=1,214 · Mike Lindell 25%,Lisa Demuth (R) 20%,Kendall Qualls 10% · release
Republican primary · Minnesota Private Business Council (partisan) · 2026-06-23–2026-06-25 · n=1,601 · Lisa Demuth (R) 29%,Kendall Qualls 24%,Mike Lindell 20% · release
Republican primary · SurveyUSA · 2026-06-11–2026-06-16 · n=450 · Mike Lindell 27%,Lisa Demuth (R) 22%,Kendall Qualls 17% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · 2026-06-08–2026-06-10 · n=800 · Amy Klobuchar (D) 48%,Kendall Qualls (R) 37% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · 2026-06-08–2026-06-10 · n=800 · Amy Klobuchar (D) 53%,Mike Lindell (R) 36% · release
Republican primary · Big Data Poll (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-20 · n=512 · Mike Lindell 21%,Lisa Demuth (R) 19%,Kendall Qualls 9% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-02-06–2026-02-08 · n=1,000 · Amy Klobuchar (D) 53%,Mike Lindell (R) 31% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Peak Insights (partisan) · 2026-01-31–2026-02-01 · n=500 · Mike Lindell 18%,Lisa Demuth (R) 17%,Scott Jensen 12%,Kendall Qualls 11%,Kristin Robbins 3% · release
Hypothetical matchup · SurveyUSA · 2026-01-27–2026-01-30 · n=575 · Amy Klobuchar (D) 49%,Scott Jensen (R) 35% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · SurveyUSA · 2026-01-27–2026-01-30 · n=575 · Amy Klobuchar (D) 49%,Kendall Qualls (R) 33% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · SurveyUSA · 2026-01-27–2026-01-30 · n=575 · Amy Klobuchar (D) 50%,Peggy Bennett (R) 30% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · SurveyUSA · 2026-01-27–2026-01-30 · n=575 · Amy Klobuchar (D) 49%,Brad Kohler (R) 32% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · SurveyUSA · 2026-01-27–2026-01-30 · n=575 · Amy Klobuchar (D) 49%,Phil Parrish (R) 32% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · SurveyUSA · 2026-01-27–2026-01-30 · n=575 · Amy Klobuchar (D) 52%,Mike Lindell (R) 32% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · SurveyUSA · 2026-01-27–2026-01-30 · n=575 · Amy Klobuchar (D) 48%,Kristin Robbins (R) 33% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · SurveyUSA · 2026-01-27–2026-01-30 · n=575 · Amy Klobuchar (D) 50%,Jeff Johnson (R) 33% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · SurveyUSA · 2026-01-27–2026-01-30 · n=575 · Amy Klobuchar (D) 49%,Patrick Knight (R) 33% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · RMG Research · 2025-12-10–2025-12-16 · n=800 · Generic Republican 46%,Tim Walz (D) 40% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · SurveyUSA · 2025-09-15–2025-09-18 · n=568 · Tim Walz (D) 50%,Kendall Qualls (R) 37% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · SurveyUSA · 2025-09-15–2025-09-18 · n=568 · Tim Walz (D) 46%,Scott Jensen (R) 41% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · SurveyUSA · 2025-09-15–2025-09-18 · n=568 · Tim Walz (D) 47%,Kristin Robbins (R) 40% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · SurveyUSA · 2025-09-15–2025-09-18 · n=568 · Tim Walz (D) 49%,Phil Parrish (R) 38% · pollster's site · release

In the news

At the Races: Regional realignmentRoll Call · Nov 12
Moderate Dem governor-elect in hot seat after signaling one of her 'top priorities' in presser: 'Resist'Fox News · Nov 11
Sen. Amy Klobuchar wins Minnesota governor's race, CBS News projectsCBS News · Nov 4
The biggest winners, losers and surprises from the 2026 midtermsDeseret News · Nov 5
Democrats gain full control of five state governments, further expanding the party’s powerNBC News · Nov 4
These members of Congress are heading to the governor’s mansionRoll Call · Nov 4
DFL trifecta 2.0: Democrats win full control of Minnesota governmentCBS News · Nov 4
Minnesota gubernatorial candidate Lisa Demuth prioritizes ending fraudNewsNation · Nov 1
Omar’s midterm rival exposes 'vicious' Somali gangs amid immigration probe into embattled repFox News · Oct 29
Tuesday’s elections bring historic first for Black governorsNBC News · Nov 3

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 59 Vugol Vector D · Held

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

59OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Vugol Attention percentile95th

7-day momentum4 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres) · missing: incumbent, money, pulse, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-06 (8 days ago)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 2e952d054f9a · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: D · Held. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.