Home / Races / Minnesota / U.S. House — MN-02

MN2026

U.S. House — MN-02 · Minnesota · 2026

Name: U.S. House — MN-02, Minnesota — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Democratic (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

1 poll on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated

News attention 46/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Eric PrattU.S. House — MN-02 · FEC H6MN02263RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$511K Matt LittleU.S. House — MN-02 · FEC H6MN02230DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$923K

Ran in the primary (3)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.

Hugh McTavishU.S. House — MN-02 · FEC H6MN02297DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$188K Kaela Jo BergU.S. House — MN-02 · FEC H6MN02271DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$391K Matthew David KleinU.S. House — MN-02 · FEC H6MN02248DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$1.2M

Other filers (2)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Jeremy WestbyU.S. House — MN-02 · FEC H6MN03162RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$39K Tyler KistnerU.S. House — MN-02 · FEC H6MN02255RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$427K

Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Minnesota&oldid=1377004462

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

1 poll on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Eric Pratt Republican	$511,213	$256,841	$254,373	2026-07-22
Hugh McTavish Democratic	$188,258	$180,979	$7,279	2026-07-22
Jeremy Westby Republican	$38,563	$38,563	$0	2026-06-30
Kaela Jo Berg Democratic	$390,965	$343,173	$47,792	2026-07-22
Matt Little Democratic	$923,277	$796,236	$127,543	2026-07-22
Matthew David Klein Democratic	$1,215,285	$926,534	$288,752	2026-07-22
Tyler Kistner Republican	$427,440	$427,591	$-151	2026-06-30

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary

Matt Little won	41,792	47.2%
Matt Klein	26,898	30.4%
Kaela Berg	14,743	16.7%
Abdisallam Abdulle	2,323	2.6%
Hugh McTavish	2,292	2.6%
Christopher Mosel	444	0.5%

Republican primary

Eric Pratt won	43,813	100.0%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-08-11 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (3)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Hypothetical matchup · Harper Polling (partisan) · 2026-06-18–2026-06-21 · n=415 · Kaela Berg (D) 43%, Eric Pratt (R) 43% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Harper Polling (partisan) · 2026-06-18–2026-06-21 · n=415 · Matt Klein (D) 43%, Eric Pratt (R) 42% · release
Democratic primary · GQR (partisan) · 2026-05-27–2026-06-01 · n=403 · Matt Little (D) 26%, Matt Klein (D) 19%, Kaela Berg (D) 16% · release

Signals (experimental)

Attention 46 Vector D · Held

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

46OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile69th

7-day momentum4 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, money, pulse) · missing: pres, incumbent, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-27 (3 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin D +16.8Fundraising velocity (FEC)D +5.9Last result for this seat (2024 D +13.8, national swing D +10.5)D +24.3Attention shareD +1.7National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-29), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 fc51ec4522a9 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: D · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.