Who is ahead in the 2026 Minnesota's 2nd District race?

Name: U.S. House - MN-02, Minnesota, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Matt Little (D) won the MN-02 race with 57.1% of the vote. No verified poll average yet. The Vugol Vector model rates it Anchored (D), a snapshot of today, not a probability. Updated 2026-11-14.

Home / Races / Minnesota / U.S. House - MN-02

MN2026

U.S. House - MN-02 · Minnesota · 2026

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

VecD 83 · AnchoredTenD >99%Att7

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Matt Little (D) won this race with 57.1% of the vote, 14.3 points ahead.

Matt LittleDemocraticWinner57.1%214,255 votes
Eric PrattRepublican42.8%160,636 votes
Joe TeirabRepublican42.8%160,636 votes

Margin: 53,619 votes (14.3 points)
Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 5, 12:39 AM ET (revision)
Last updated: Nov 13, 6:06 AM ET
Source: Wikipedia · official results page

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

CandidatesU.S. House - MN-02 · Minnesota

Matt Little

DEM

Eric Pratt

REP

No verified poll yet · Vugol Vector: D Anchored

D · AnchoredVugol Vector model

Model rating Leans Democratic (Anchored) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.

1 poll on file, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 7/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works

On the Minnesota ballot, Nov 3, 2026 Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Minnesota? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-13. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Eric PrattU.S. House - MN-02 · FEC H6MN02263RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$769K Matt LittleU.S. House - MN-02 · FEC H6MN02230DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$1.5M

Ran in the primary (3)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.

Hugh McTavishU.S. House - MN-02 · FEC H6MN02297DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$189K Kaela Jo BergU.S. House - MN-02 · FEC H6MN02271DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$434K Matthew David KleinU.S. House - MN-02 · FEC H6MN02248DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$1.5M

Other filers (2)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Jeremy WestbyU.S. House - MN-02 · FEC H6MN03162RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$39K Tyler KistnerU.S. House - MN-02 · FEC H6MN02255RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$432K

Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Minnesota&oldid=1385221953

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

1 poll on file for this race, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), visible below, not averaged.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Eric Pratt Republican	$768,791	$595,361	$173,430	2026-10-14
Hugh McTavish Democratic	$189,079	$183,966	$5,113	2026-09-30
Jeremy Westby Republican	$38,563	$38,563	$0	2026-10-14
Kaela Jo Berg Democratic	$433,779	$433,779	$0	2026-10-14
Matt Little Democratic	$1,494,554	$1,289,779	$205,276	2026-10-14
Matthew David Klein Democratic	$1,484,433	$1,486,004	$-1,571	2026-09-30
Tyler Kistner Republican	$431,827	$431,977	$-150	2026-09-30

Ad spending (FEC)

What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.

Candidate	Campaign's own ads	Outside groups for	Outside groups against
Matthew David Klein Democratic	$547K+ $153K mail · through 2026-09-30	$2.5M$2.5M ads · 1 group	$17K$0 ads · 1 group
Kaela Jo Berg Democratic	$0+ $38K mail · through 2026-10-07	$1.2M$1M ads · 5 groups	none reported
Matt Little Democratic	$25K+ $146K mail · through 2026-07-22	$763K$676K ads · 7 groups	$17K$0 ads · 1 group
Eric Pratt Republican	$2,877+ $22K mail · through 2026-07-22	$226K$0 ads · 1 group	$12K$0 ads · 1 group
Hugh McTavish Democratic	$51K+ $3,078 mail · through 2026-09-30	none reported	none reported
Jeremy Westby Republican	$3,500through 2026-06-30	none reported	none reported

Biggest outside spenders

Matthew David Klein. For: 314 Action Fund $2.5M. Against: IN UNION USA $17K
Kaela Jo Berg. For: Women Vote $639K, Pro-Choice Majority Action $295K, IN UNION USA $115K
Matt Little. For: National Nurses United for Patient Protection $261K, Medicare For All $200K, Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC $150K. Against: IN UNION USA $17K
Eric Pratt. For: AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION PAC $226K. Against: Building Together $12K

Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-01, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-10-07); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.

general election

Matt Little won	214,255	57.1%
Joe Teirab	160,636	42.8%
Eric Pratt	160,636	42.8%

Democratic primary

Matt Little won	41,792	47.2%
Matt Klein	26,898	30.4%
Kaela Berg	14,743	16.7%
Abdisallam Abdulle	2,323	2.6%
Hugh McTavish	2,292	2.6%
Christopher Mosel	444	0.5%

Republican primary

Eric Pratt won	43,813	100.0%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-13 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-08-11, Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (3)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Hypothetical matchup · Harper Polling (partisan) · 2026-06-18–2026-06-21 · n=415 · Kaela Berg (D) 43%,Eric Pratt (R) 43% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Harper Polling (partisan) · 2026-06-18–2026-06-21 · n=415 · Matt Klein (D) 43%,Eric Pratt (R) 42% · release
Democratic primary · GQR (partisan) · 2026-05-27–2026-06-01 · n=403 · Matt Little (D) 26%,Matt Klein (D) 19%,Kaela Berg (D) 16% · release

In the news

'The President is not popular': GOP candidate cuts apparent AI prompt from websiteThe Hill · Oct 21

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 7 Vugol Vector D · Anchored

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

7OUT OF 100Low attention

Vugol Attention percentile0th

7-day momentum23 / 100

Source breadth0% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, money) · missing: pres, incumbent, pulse, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-12 (2 days ago)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Vugol Tensor

How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested

tensor-1.0.0

Centre D+20.8. Four times in five the result lands between D+30.2 and D+11.4; nine in ten between D+32.9 and D+8.7. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: >99%.

Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 52c8585ba9e5 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: D · Anchored. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.