Flanagan +3Within margin of error
- Margaret Flanagan Democratic: 49%
- Michele Tafoya Republican: 46%
Other 4% · Undecided 1%
MN2026
U.S. Senate · Minnesota · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Result
CalledPeggy Flanagan (D) won this race with 53.7% of the vote, 10.1 points ahead.
- Peggy FlanaganDemocraticWinner53.7%1,520,871 votes
- Michele TafoyaRepublican43.6%1,233,476 votes
- Marisa SimonettiIndependent1.5%41,574 votes
- Rebecca WhitingL1.1%32,493 votes
- Margin
- 287,395 votes (10.1 points)
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 12:07 AM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 14, 6:05 AM ET
- Source
- Wikipedia · official results page
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageU.S. Senate · Minnesota
Margaret Flanagan
54%
Michele Tafoya
46%
Verified poll average · 11 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-30
Verified polls Flanagan leads Tafoya by 7.0 points in our average of verified polls.
11 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-10-30. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 35/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 4 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (4)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Other filers (3)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Flanagan +7
- Margaret Flanagan Democratic: 53.5%
- Michele Tafoya Republican: 46.5%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-MN
Sourcehttps://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-final-minnesota-senate-survey-flanagan-49-tafoya-46/
Retrieved2026-11-14
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
53.5% Margaret Flanagan46.5% Michele Tafoya
Peggy Flanagan (D)Michele Tafoya (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre D+7.0. Four times in five the result lands between D+13.7 and D+0.3; nine in ten between D+15.6 and R+1.6. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 91%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (11 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Schwarze | $1,502,705 | $1,494,988 | $7,717 | 2026-09-30 |
| Angie Craig | $13,380,880 | $13,232,448 | $148,433 | 2026-09-30 |
| David W Hann | $133,465 | $133,465 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Mark York | $74,787 | $73,924 | $863 | 2026-09-30 |
| Melisa Lopez Franzen | $299,376 | $299,376 | $0 | 2025-07-15 |
| Michele Tafoya | $46,626 | $44,746 | $2,211 | 2026-10-14 |
| Peggy Flanagan | $11,563,963 | $10,570,749 | $993,214 | 2026-10-14 |
| Royce White | $734,725 | $846,209 | $27,625 | 2026-09-30 |
| Tom Weiler | $220,904 | $134,760 | $87,904 | 2026-09-30 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angie Craig | $2.8M | $9.9M | $2.3M |
| Peggy Flanagan | $792K | $3.4M | $9.8M |
| Michele Tafoya | $45K | $1.1M | |
| Adam Schwarze | $40K | $202K | |
| Melisa Lopez Franzen | $46K | ||
| David W Hann | $35K |
Biggest outside spenders
- Angie Craig. For: NORTH STAR DAWN PAC $7.2M, MINNESOTANS FOR PROGRESS PAC $1.4M, CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEE $1.2M. Against: DLGA $2.1M, CLEAR VOICE MINNESOTA $200K, Service Employees International Union Political Education & Action Fund $2,308
- Peggy Flanagan. For: DLGA $1.5M, AB PAC $1.4M, Working America $213K. Against: NORTH STAR DAWN PAC $6.2M, MINNESOTA FORWARD $2.6M, UNITE TO WIN $1M
- Michele Tafoya. For: THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY $25K, MINNESOTA FORWARD $20K. Against: Sheepdog PAC $444K, OUR HERITAGE MATTERS $367K, The Edge Action Fund (SuperPAC) $175K
- Adam Schwarze. For: Sheepdog PAC $202K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-03, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
general election
| Peggy Flanagan won | 1,520,871 | 53.7% |
| Michele Tafoya | 1,233,476 | 43.6% |
| Marisa Simonetti | 41,574 | 1.5% |
| Rebecca Whiting | 32,493 | 1.1% |
Democratic primary · official results
| Peggy Flanagan won | 411,853 | 59.0% |
| Angie Craig | 274,920 | 39.4% |
| Kurt Michael Anderson | 4,521 | 0.6% |
| Billy Nord | 2,896 | 0.4% |
| George H. Kalberer | 2,076 | 0.3% |
| Peter John Murgic | 1,661 | 0.2% |
Republican primary
| Michele Tafoya won | 211,813 | 52.1% |
| Adam Schwarze | 97,470 | 24.0% |
| Royce White | 45,374 | 11.2% |
| Tom Weiler | 24,247 | 6.0% |
| Joyce Lacey | 7,474 | 1.8% |
| Patrick Munro | 7,096 | 1.7% |
| Cynthia Gail | 5,929 | 1.5% |
| Bob Carney Jr. | 5,678 | 1.4% |
| Ahmad R. Hassan | 1,742 | 0.4% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-11, Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (22)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Republican primary · KSTP/SurveyUSA · 2026-07-29–2026-08-04 · n=458 · Michele Tafoya (R) 48%,Royce White (R) 13%,Adam Schwarze (R) 5%,Tom Weiler (R) 3% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · KTSP/SurveyUSA · 2026-07-29–2026-08-04 · n=513 · Angie Craig (D) 42%,Peggy Flanagan 40% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-23–2026-07-24 · n=672 · Peggy Flanagan 46%,Angie Craig (D) 32% · release
- Republican primary · KSTP/SurveyUSA · 2026-07-15–2026-07-20 · n=478 · Michele Tafoya (R) 41%,Royce White (R) 10%,Tom Weiler (R) 7%,Adam Schwarze (R) 5% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · KSTP/SurveyUSA · 2026-07-15–2026-07-20 · n=513 · Peggy Flanagan 40%,Angie Craig (D) 40% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-06-25–2026-06-26 · n=604 · Peggy Flanagan 43%,Angie Craig (D) 36% · release
- Democratic primary · KSTP/SurveyUSA · 2026-06-11–2026-06-16 · n=513 · Angie Craig (D) 41%,Peggy Flanagan 36% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · KSTP/SurveyUSA · 2026-06-11–2026-06-16 · n=450 · Michele Tafoya (R) 36%,Royce White (R) 15%,Tom Weiler (R) 7%,Adam Schwarze (R) 7% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · GQR (partisan) · 2026-05-31–2026-06-03 · n=500 · Peggy Flanagan 55%,Angie Craig (D) 38% · release
- Democratic primary · Global Strategy Group (partisan) · 2026-05-26–2026-05-28 · n=600 · Angie Craig (D) 43%,Peggy Flanagan 42% · release
- Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-06–2026-05-09 · n=663 · Michele Tafoya (R) 52%,Royce White (R) 9%,Adam Schwarze (R) 4%,Tom Weiler (R) 2% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-04-29–2026-04-30 · n=652 · Peggy Flanagan 44%,Angie Craig (D) 33% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-02-06–2026-02-08 · n=1,000 · Angie Craig (D) 47%,Michele Tafoya (R) 40% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Peak Insights (partisan) · 2026-01-31–2026-02-01 · n=500 · Michele Tafoya (R) 41%,Royce White (R) 11%,Adam Schwarze (R) 4%,Tom Weiler (R) 1% · release
- Democratic primary · GQR (partisan) · 2026-01-14–2026-01-20 · n=600 · Peggy Flanagan 49%,Angie Craig (D) 36% · release
- Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-01-16–2026-01-17 · n=976 · Peggy Flanagan 40%,Angie Craig (D) 28% · release
- Democratic primary · Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-01-13–2026-01-15 · n=600 · Peggy Flanagan 45%,Angie Craig (D) 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-09-15–2025-09-16 · n=1,015 · Angie Craig (D) 47%,Generic Republican 43% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-09-15–2025-09-16 · n=1,015 · Peggy Flanagan (D) 46%,Generic Republican 44% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Impact Research (partisan) · 2025-07-08–2025-07-11 · n=604 · Angie Craig (D) 49%,Michele Tafoya (R) 45% · release
- Democratic primary · NRSC (partisan) · 2025-07-04–2025-07-07 · n=559 · Peggy Flanagan 30%,Angie Craig (D) 24% · release
- Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-02-14–2025-02-15 · n=668 · Peggy Flanagan 52%,Angie Craig (D) 22% · release
In the news
- Democrats Vie for Support in Race for Top Senate Job
- Republican state lawmakers reported Omar to the IRS in 2019
- Meet the history-makers of the 120th Congress
- Newly elected Senate Democrats in the spotlight: From the Politics Desk
- Pro-Israel Republican makes major campaign finance pledge after razor-thin election victory
- ‘I’ll be reelected as majority leader,’ Schumer says
- Republicans, reeling from an election drubbing, will choose their leadership in Congress
- Jon Stewart warns against ‘bulls–t system’ ruling Dem party, calls for Chuck Schumer to step down after midterm sweep
- At the Races: Red-y, set, vote
- Native American women made history in tribal, state and federal elections
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 35 Vugol Vector D · Held
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
35OUT OF 100Low attention
Vugol Attention percentile43th
7-day momentum13 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked
Candidate attention share · trailing 7 days100% D · 0% R
Melisa Lopez Franzen (D) 100% · volume 11 / 7d
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, pres, money) · missing: prior, incumbent, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-10 (4 days ago)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 e5fcd8f78d43 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: D · Held. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.