MN2026

U.S. Senate · Minnesota · 2026

Name: U.S. Senate, Minnesota — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 4 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Democratic (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

8 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 74/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 4 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Margaret FlanaganU.S. Senate — MN · FEC S6MN00440DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$6.5M Michele TafoyaU.S. Senate — MN · FEC S6MN00556RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$5.3M

Ran in the primary (4)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.

Adam SchwarzeU.S. Senate — MN · FEC S6MN00457RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$1.4M Angie CraigU.S. Senate — MN · FEC S6MN00499DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$12.7M Royce WhiteU.S. Senate — MN · FEC S4MN00502RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$662K Tom WeilerU.S. Senate — MN · FEC S6MN00515RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$221K

Other filers (3)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

David W HannU.S. Senate — MN · FEC S6MN00531RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$133K Mark YorkU.S. Senate — MN · FEC S6MN00549RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$74K Melisa Lopez FranzenU.S. Senate — MN · FEC S6MN00465DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$299K

Ballot source: https://electionresults.sos.mn.gov/Results/Index?ErsElectionId=200&officeInElectionIdList=38485&officeInElectionIdList=-1&scenario=USSenate&electionDate=08%2F11%2F2026%2000%3A00%3A00

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

8 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

Peggy Flanagan (D)Michele Tafoya (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Adam Schwarze Republican	$1,439,561	$1,255,744	$183,816	2026-07-22
Angie Craig Democratic	$12,746,618	$9,179,437	$3,567,180	2026-07-22
David W Hann Republican	$133,465	$133,465	$0	2026-06-30
Margaret Flanagan Democratic	$6,517,348	$5,458,744	$1,058,604	2026-07-22
Mark York Republican	$74,070	$69,528	$4,542	2026-06-30
Melisa Lopez Franzen Democratic	$299,376	$299,376	$0	2025-07-15
Michele Tafoya Republican	$5,337,942	$3,965,545	$1,372,728	2026-07-22
Royce White Republican	$661,620	$764,958	$35,771	2026-07-22
Tom Weiler Republican	$220,514	$100,735	$121,540	2026-07-22

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary · official results

Peggy Flanagan won	411,853	59.0%
Angie Craig	274,920	39.4%
Kurt Michael Anderson	4,521	0.6%
Billy Nord	2,896	0.4%
George H. Kalberer	2,076	0.3%
Peter John Murgic	1,661	0.2%

Republican primary

Michele Tafoya won	211,813	52.1%
Adam Schwarze	97,470	24.0%
Royce White	45,374	11.2%
Tom Weiler	24,247	6.0%
Joyce Lacey	7,474	1.8%
Patrick Munro	7,096	1.7%
Cynthia Gail	5,929	1.5%
Bob Carney Jr.	5,678	1.4%
Ahmad R. Hassan	1,742	0.4%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-08-11 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (22)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Republican primary · KSTP/SurveyUSA · 2026-07-29–2026-08-04 · n=458 · Michele Tafoya (R) 48%, Royce White (R) 13%, Adam Schwarze (R) 5%, Tom Weiler (R) 3% · release
Democratic primary · KTSP/SurveyUSA · 2026-07-29–2026-08-04 · n=513 · Angie Craig (D) 42%, Peggy Flanagan 40% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-07-23–2026-07-24 · n=672 · Peggy Flanagan 46%, Angie Craig (D) 32% · release
Republican primary · KSTP/SurveyUSA · 2026-07-15–2026-07-20 · n=478 · Michele Tafoya (R) 41%, Royce White (R) 10%, Tom Weiler (R) 7%, Adam Schwarze (R) 5% · release
Democratic primary · KSTP/SurveyUSA · 2026-07-15–2026-07-20 · n=513 · Peggy Flanagan 40%, Angie Craig (D) 40% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-06-25–2026-06-26 · n=604 · Peggy Flanagan 43%, Angie Craig (D) 36% · release
Democratic primary · KSTP/SurveyUSA · 2026-06-11–2026-06-16 · n=513 · Angie Craig (D) 41%, Peggy Flanagan 36% · release
Republican primary · KSTP/SurveyUSA · 2026-06-11–2026-06-16 · n=450 · Michele Tafoya (R) 36%, Royce White (R) 15%, Tom Weiler (R) 7%, Adam Schwarze (R) 7% · release
Democratic primary · GQR (partisan) · 2026-05-31–2026-06-03 · n=500 · Peggy Flanagan 55%, Angie Craig (D) 38% · release
Democratic primary · Global Strategy Group (partisan) · 2026-05-26–2026-05-28 · n=600 · Angie Craig (D) 43%, Peggy Flanagan 42% · release
Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-06–2026-05-09 · n=663 · Michele Tafoya (R) 52%, Royce White (R) 9%, Adam Schwarze (R) 4%, Tom Weiler (R) 2% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-04-29–2026-04-30 · n=652 · Peggy Flanagan 44%, Angie Craig (D) 33% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-02-06–2026-02-08 · n=1,000 · Angie Craig (D) 47%, Michele Tafoya (R) 40% · release
Republican primary · Peak Insights (partisan) · 2026-01-31–2026-02-01 · n=500 · Michele Tafoya (R) 41%, Royce White (R) 11%, Adam Schwarze (R) 4%, Tom Weiler (R) 1% · release
Democratic primary · GQR (partisan) · 2026-01-14–2026-01-20 · n=600 · Peggy Flanagan 49%, Angie Craig (D) 36% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-01-16–2026-01-17 · n=976 · Peggy Flanagan 40%, Angie Craig (D) 28% · release
Democratic primary · Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-01-13–2026-01-15 · n=600 · Peggy Flanagan 45%, Angie Craig (D) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-09-15–2025-09-16 · n=1,015 · Angie Craig (D) 47%, Generic Republican 43% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-09-15–2025-09-16 · n=1,015 · Peggy Flanagan (D) 46%, Generic Republican 44% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Impact Research (partisan) · 2025-07-08–2025-07-11 · n=604 · Angie Craig (D) 49%, Michele Tafoya (R) 45% · release
Democratic primary · NRSC (partisan) · 2025-07-04–2025-07-07 · n=559 · Peggy Flanagan 30%, Angie Craig (D) 24% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-02-14–2025-02-15 · n=668 · Peggy Flanagan 52%, Angie Craig (D) 22% · release

Signals (experimental)

Attention 74 Vector D · Tilting

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

74OUT OF 100High attention

Attention percentile86th

7-day momentum35 / 100

Source breadth100% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, pres, money, pulse) · missing: prior, incumbent, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-26 (4 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin D +10.3Presidential lean of the seat (2024 D +4.3, national swing D +10.5)D +14.8Fundraising velocity (FEC)D +5.3Attention shareD +1.5National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 a021d8cca273 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: D · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.