Who is ahead in the 2026 Michigan Governor race?

Name: Governor, Michigan, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Jocelyn Benson (D) won the MI Governor race. Benson leads James by 7.8 points in our average of verified polls. Verified poll average · 15 polls · newest poll ended 2026-11-01. Updated 2026-11-14.

Home / Races / Michigan / Governor

MI2026

Governor · Michigan · 2026

General election · 3 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

VecD 56 · HeldTenD 93%Att50

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Jocelyn Benson (D) won this race.

Jocelyn BensonDemocraticWinnerno count in the source

Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Anthony Hudson (I), John James (R).

Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 1:25 AM ET (revision)
Last updated: Nov 4, 10:47 AM ET
Source: Wikipedia (race summary table) · official results page

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

Race poll averageGovernor · Michigan

Jocelyn Benson

54%

John James

46%

Verified poll average · 15 polls · newest poll ended 2026-11-01

D · Heldfrom verified polls

Verified polls Benson leads James by 7.8 points in our average of verified polls.

15 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-11-01. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 50/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works

On the Michigan ballot, Nov 3, 2026 Governor / Lt. Governor, 5 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Michigan? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (3)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Anthony HudsonGovernor - MI · FEC H4MI08226LibertarianOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Jocelyn BensonGovernor - MIDemocraticOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file John JamesGovernor - MIRepublicanOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file

Other filers (2)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Donna BrandenburgGovernor - MIOtherNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file Douglas CampbellGovernor - MI · FEC H8MI09084GreenNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file

Ballot source: https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/votehistory/Index?type=C&electionDate=8-4-2026

Polling average · 15 verified pollsVerified

Benson +7.8

Jocelyn Benson Democratic: 53.9%
John James Republican: 46.1%

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

15 verified polls

Latest verified pollVerified

Benson +13

Jocelyn Benson Democratic: 52%
John James Republican: 39%

Other 0% · Undecided 8%

Cite / verify

Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-MI-GOV

Sourcehttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-mi-poll-toplines.html

Retrieved2026-11-14

Polling average Updates as polls arrive

15 verified inputs

53.9% Jocelyn Benson46.1% John James

Jocelyn Benson (D)John James (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Vugol Tensor

How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction

tensor-1.0.0

Centre D+7.8. Four times in five the result lands between D+14.5 and D+1.1; nine in ten between D+16.4 and R+0.8. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 93%.

Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (15 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.

Democratic primary · official results

Jocelyn Benson won	1,251,160	83.2%
Chris Swanson	252,236	16.8%

Republican primary

John James won	466,714	50.0%
Perry Johnson	328,194	35.2%
Mike Cox (withdrawn)	121,261	13.0%
Aric Nesbitt (withdrawn)	16,295	1.8%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-08-04, Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (40)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Hypothetical matchup · EPIC-MRA · 2026-07-24–2026-07-31 · n=600 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 48%,Perry Johnson (R) 36% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-07-28–2026-07-29 · n=672 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 48%,Perry Johnson (R) 43% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research · 2026-07-28–2026-07-29 · n=672 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 48%,Perry Johnson (R) 43% · release
Republican primary · Mitchell Research · 2026-07-28–2026-07-29 · n=332 · John James (R) 50%,Perry Johnson 22%,Mike Cox 13%,Aric Nesbitt 5% · release
Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-07-26–2026-07-27 · n=350 · John James (R) 40%,Perry Johnson 32%,Mike Cox 9%,Aric Nesbitt 3% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-07-22–2026-07-24 · n=600 · Chris Swanson (D) 43%,John James (R) 40% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-07-22–2026-07-24 · n=600 · Chris Swanson (D) 44%,Perry Johnson (R) 40% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-07-22–2026-07-24 · n=600 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 48%,Perry Johnson (R) 37% · release
Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-07-14–2026-07-16 · n=773 · John James (R) 36%,Perry Johnson 23%,Mike Cox 21%,Aric Nesbitt 3% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Glengariff Group · 2026-07-08–2026-07-11 · n=500 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 72%,Chris Swanson 12% · release
Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-06-30–2026-07-03 · n=1,101 · John James (R) 35%,Perry Johnson 23%,Mike Cox 20%,Aric Nesbitt 4% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · OnMessage Inc. (partisan) · 2026-06-28–2026-06-30 · n=800 · John James (R) 46%,Perry Johnson 21%,Mike Cox 14% · release
Republican primary · Susquehanna Polling & Research · 2026-06-09–2026-06-14 · n=175 · John James (R) 38%,Mike Cox 20%,Perry Johnson 10%,Aric Nesbitt 3% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research · 2026-06-11–2026-06-13 · n=827 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 50%,Perry Johnson (R) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-06-11–2026-06-13 · n=827 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 48%,Mike Cox (R) 41% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research · 2026-06-11–2026-06-13 · n=827 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 48%,Mike Cox (R) 41% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-06-11–2026-06-13 · n=827 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 50%,Perry Johnson (R) 42% · release
Republican primary · Mitchell Research · 2026-06-11–2026-06-13 · n=404 · John James (R) 28%,Mike Cox 27%,Perry Johnson 23%,Aric Nesbitt 4% · release
Republican primary · TIPP Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-23 · n=555 · John James (R) 31%,Mike Cox 20%,Perry Johnson 19%,Aric Nesbitt 3% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · 1892 Polling (partisan) · 2026-05-12–2026-05-14 · n=681 · John James (R) 24%,Perry Johnson 23%,Aric Nesbitt 7%,Mike Cox 7% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=607 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 42%,John James (R) 30%,Mike Duggan (I) 13% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=607 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 41%,Mike Cox (R) 30%,Mike Duggan (I) 14% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=607 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 42%,Perry Johnson (R) 32%,Mike Duggan (I) 13% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=607 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 42%,Perry Johnson (R) 32%,Mike Duggan (I) 13% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research & Communications · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=607 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 42%,John James (R) 30%,Mike Duggan (I) 13% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=607 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 41%,Mike Cox (R) 30%,Mike Duggan (I) 14% · release
Democratic primary · Mitchell Research · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=405 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 62%,Chris Swanson 8% · release
Republican primary · Mitchell Research · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=400 · John James (R) 32%,Perry Johnson 23%,Mike Cox 19%,Aric Nesbitt 7% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-04-28–2026-05-01 · n=600 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 34%,Perry Johnson (R) 26%,Mike Duggan (I) 23% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-04-28–2026-05-01 · n=600 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 34%,John James (R) 29%,Mike Duggan (I) 23% · release
Republican primary · Glengariff Group · 2026-04-21–2026-04-24 · n=500 · John James (R) 37%,Perry Johnson 20%,Mike Cox 10%,Aric Nesbitt 7%,Tom Leonard 3% · release
Democratic primary · Glengariff Group · 2026-04-17–2026-04-19 · n=500 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 66%,Chris Swanson 8% · release
Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-04-11–2026-04-13 · n=452 · Perry Johnson 21%,John James (R) 20%,Mike Cox 10%,Tom Leonard 4%,Aric Nesbitt 3% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Emerson College · 2026-04-11–2026-04-13 · n=519 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 52%,Chris Swanson 5% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Michigan State University/YouGov · 2026-03-02–2026-03-24 · n=1,000 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 27%,John James (R) 19%,Mike Duggan (I) 16% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · JMC Analytics · 2026-03-21–2026-03-23 · n=450 · John James (R) 23%,Perry Johnson 20%,Mike Cox 6%,Aric Nesbitt 5%,Tom Leonard 3% · release
Republican primary · OnMessage Inc. (partisan) · 2026-03-16–2026-03-19 · n=509 · John James (R) 37%,Perry Johnson 19%,Mike Cox 10%,Aric Nesbitt 4%,Tom Leonard 1% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-02-09–2026-02-16 · n=800 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 39%,John James (R) 36%,Mike Duggan (I) 20% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-01-02–2026-01-06 · n=600 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 34%,Mike Duggan (I) 31%,Mike Cox (R) 28% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-01-02–2026-01-06 · n=600 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 35%,Mike Duggan (I) 32%,Aric Nesbitt (R) 24% · release

In the news

Full transcript of "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Nov. 8, 2026CBS News · Nov 8
NYC's Mamdani says Abdul El-Sayed's Senate victory in Michigan 'means so much to so many'Fox News · Nov 4
These members of Congress are heading to the governor’s mansionRoll Call · Nov 4
All the House districts that flipped in the midterm electionsCBS News · Nov 4
Michigan voters make surprising cross-party choices as Rogers, El-Sayed race reaches final hoursFox News · Nov 3
House Republicans appear to have an open-seat problemRoll Call · Oct 13
Democrats gain full control of five state governments, further expanding the party’s powerNBC News · Nov 4
An hour-by-hour guide to watching the 2026 midterms, and when we’ll know who controls CongressNew York Post · Nov 3
Benson, James spar in Michigan gubernatorial debate: 3 takeawaysThe Hill · Oct 6
Democrats score key secretary of state wins ahead of the 2028 electionNBC News · Nov 4

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 50 Vugol Vector D · Held

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

50OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Vugol Attention percentile80th

7-day momentum2 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres) · missing: incumbent, money, pulse, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-12 (2 days ago)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 3b347c0ac797 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: D · Held. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.