MI2026

Governor · Michigan · 2026

Name: Governor, Michigan — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Democratic (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

21 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 50/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Jocelyn BensonGovernor — MIDemocraticOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file John JamesGovernor — MIRepublicanOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file

Other filers (3)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Anthony HudsonGovernor — MI · FEC H4MI08226LibertarianNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file Donna BrandenburgGovernor — MIOtherNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file Douglas CampbellGovernor — MI · FEC H8MI09084GreenNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file

Ballot source: https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/votehistory/Index?type=C&electionDate=8-4-2026

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

21 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

Jocelyn Benson (D)John James (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary · official results

Jocelyn Benson won	1,251,160	83.2%
Chris Swanson	252,236	16.8%

Republican primary

John James won	466,714	50.0%
Perry Johnson	328,194	35.2%
Mike Cox (withdrawn)	121,261	13.0%
Aric Nesbitt (withdrawn)	16,295	1.8%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-08-04 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (40)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Hypothetical matchup · EPIC-MRA · 2026-07-24–2026-07-31 · n=600 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 48%, Perry Johnson (R) 36% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research · 2026-07-28–2026-07-29 · n=672 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 48%, Perry Johnson (R) 43% · release
Republican primary · Mitchell Research · 2026-07-28–2026-07-29 · n=332 · John James (R) 50%, Perry Johnson 22%, Mike Cox 13%, Aric Nesbitt 5% · release
Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-07-26–2026-07-27 · n=350 · John James (R) 40%, Perry Johnson 32%, Mike Cox 9%, Aric Nesbitt 3% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-07-22–2026-07-24 · n=600 · Chris Swanson (D) 43%, John James (R) 40% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-07-22–2026-07-24 · n=600 · Chris Swanson (D) 44%, Perry Johnson (R) 40% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-07-22–2026-07-24 · n=600 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 48%, Perry Johnson (R) 37% · release
Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-07-14–2026-07-16 · n=773 · John James (R) 36%, Perry Johnson 23%, Mike Cox 21%, Aric Nesbitt 3% · release
Democratic primary · Glengariff Group · 2026-07-08–2026-07-11 · n=500 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 72%, Chris Swanson 12% · release
Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-06-30–2026-07-03 · n=1,101 · John James (R) 35%, Perry Johnson 23%, Mike Cox 20%, Aric Nesbitt 4% · release
Republican primary · OnMessage Inc. (partisan) · 2026-06-28–2026-06-30 · n=800 · John James (R) 46%, Perry Johnson 21%, Mike Cox 14% · release
Republican primary · Susquehanna Polling & Research · 2026-06-09–2026-06-14 · n=175 · John James (R) 38%, Mike Cox 20%, Perry Johnson 10%, Aric Nesbitt 3% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research · 2026-06-11–2026-06-13 · n=827 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 50%, Perry Johnson (R) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research · 2026-06-11–2026-06-13 · n=827 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 48%, Mike Cox (R) 41% · release
Republican primary · Mitchell Research · 2026-06-11–2026-06-13 · n=404 · John James (R) 28%, Mike Cox 27%, Perry Johnson 23%, Aric Nesbitt 4% · release
Republican primary · TIPP Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-23 · n=555 · John James (R) 31%, Mike Cox 20%, Perry Johnson 19%, Aric Nesbitt 3% · release
Republican primary · 1892 Polling (partisan) · 2026-05-12–2026-05-14 · n=681 · John James (R) 24%, Perry Johnson 23%, Mike Cox 7%, Aric Nesbitt 7% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=607 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 42%, John James (R) 30%, Mike Duggan (I) 13% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=607 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 42%, Perry Johnson (R) 32%, Mike Duggan (I) 13% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=607 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 41%, Mike Cox (R) 30%, Mike Duggan (I) 14% · release
Democratic primary · Mitchell Research · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=405 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 62%, Chris Swanson 8% · release
Republican primary · Mitchell Research · 2026-05-01–2026-05-07 · n=400 · John James (R) 32%, Perry Johnson 23%, Mike Cox 19%, Aric Nesbitt 7% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-04-28–2026-05-01 · n=600 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 34%, Perry Johnson (R) 26%, Mike Duggan (I) 23% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-04-28–2026-05-01 · n=600 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 34%, John James (R) 29%, Mike Duggan (I) 23% · release
Republican primary · Glengariff Group · 2026-04-21–2026-04-24 · n=500 · John James (R) 37%, Perry Johnson 20%, Mike Cox 10%, Aric Nesbitt 7%, Tom Leonard 3% · release
Democratic primary · Glengariff Group · 2026-04-17–2026-04-19 · n=500 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 66%, Chris Swanson 8% · release
Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-04-11–2026-04-13 · n=452 · Perry Johnson 21%, John James (R) 20%, Mike Cox 10%, Tom Leonard 4%, Aric Nesbitt 3% · release
Democratic primary · Emerson College · 2026-04-11–2026-04-13 · n=519 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 52%, Chris Swanson 5% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Michigan State University/YouGov · 2026-03-02–2026-03-24 · n=1,000 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 27%, John James (R) 19%, Mike Duggan (I) 16% · release
Republican primary · JMC Analytics · 2026-03-21–2026-03-23 · n=450 · John James (R) 23%, Perry Johnson 20%, Mike Cox 6%, Aric Nesbitt 5%, Tom Leonard 3% · release
Republican primary · OnMessage Inc. (partisan) · 2026-03-16–2026-03-19 · n=509 · John James (R) 37%, Perry Johnson 19%, Mike Cox 10%, Aric Nesbitt 4%, Tom Leonard 1% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Impact Research (partisan) · 2026-02-09–2026-02-16 · n=800 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 39%, John James (R) 36%, Mike Duggan (I) 20% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-01-02–2026-01-06 · n=600 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 34%, Mike Duggan (I) 31%, Mike Cox (R) 28% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-01-02–2026-01-06 · n=600 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 35%, Mike Duggan (I) 32%, Aric Nesbitt (R) 24% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-01-02–2026-01-06 · n=600 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 34%, Mike Duggan (I) 33%, Tom Leonard (R) 24% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Glengariff Group · 2026-01-02–2026-01-06 · n=600 · John James (R) 34%, Jocelyn Benson (D) 32%, Mike Duggan (I) 26% · release
Republican primary · Mitchell Research · 2025-11-18–2025-11-21 · n=255 · John James (R) 48%, Mike Cox 11%, Tom Leonard 5%, Aric Nesbitt 2% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Mitchell Research · 2025-11-18–2025-11-21 · n=616 · John James (R) 37%, Jocelyn Benson (D) 31%, Mike Duggan (I) 18% · release
Democratic primary · Mitchell Research · 2025-11-18–2025-11-21 · n=261 · Jocelyn Benson (D) 48%, Garlin Gilchrist 12%, Chris Swanson 5% · release
Hypothetical matchup · EPIC-MRA · 2025-11-06–2025-11-11 · n=600 · John James (R) 34%, Jocelyn Benson (D) 33%, Mike Duggan (I) 20% · release

In the news

Read full episode transcripts of "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" from 2026CBS News · Sep 28
Republicans dump cash into red states as they try to hold the line against Democrats in the midtermsABC News · Sep 23

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Signals (experimental)

Attention 50 Vector D · Held

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

50OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile77th

7-day momentum3 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres) · missing: incumbent, money, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-28 (2 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin D +13.5Presidential lean of the seat (2024 R +1.4, national swing D +8.4)D +7.0Last result for this seat (2022 D +10.5, national swing D +8.5)D +19.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing × 0.8 for this office; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 baa8728aebf3 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: D · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.