Pingree +9
- Hannah Pingree Democratic: 50%
- Bobby Charles Republican: 41%
- Rick Bennett Independent: 9%
ME2026
Governor · Maine · 2026
General election · 3 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Result
CalledHannah Pingree (D) won this race.
- Hannah PingreeDemocraticWinnerno count in the source
Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Rick Bennett (I), Robert B. Charles (R).
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 1:23 AM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 4, 10:47 AM ET
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageGovernor · Maine
Hannah Pingree
51%
Bobby Charles
41%
Verified poll average · 11 polls · newest poll ended 2026-11-018% other
Verified polls Pingree leads Charles by 10.4 points in our average of verified polls.
11 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-11-01. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 52/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 6 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_Maine_gubernatorial_election&oldid=1385599070
Pingree +10
- Hannah Pingree Democratic: 51.4%
- Bobby Charles Republican: 41%
- Rick Bennett Independent: 7.6%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-ME-GOV
Sourcehttps://pollvault.substack.com/p/new-poll-vault-emerson-senate-and
Retrieved2026-11-14
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
51.4% Hannah Pingree41.0% Bobby Charles7.6% Rick Bennett
Hannah Pingree (D)Bobby Charles (R)Rick Bennett (I)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre D+10.4. Four times in five the result lands between D+17.1 and D+3.7; nine in ten between D+19.0 and D+1.8. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 98%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (11 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
Republican primary
| Robert Charles won | 269 | - |
| Ben Midgley | 230 | - |
| Jonathan Bush | 96 | - |
| Garrett Mason | 76 | - |
| Owen McCarthy | 74 | - |
| Robert Wessels | 54 | - |
| David Jones | 45 | - |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-09, Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-07-25, Special convention: U.S. Senate, DEM (To replace Graham Platner on General Election Ballot)
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (14)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Democratic primary · SurveyUSA · 2026-05-28–2026-06-03 · n=484 · Nirav Shah 25%,Troy Jackson 20%,Hannah Pingree (D) 19%,Angus King III 14%,Shenna Bellows 11% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · SurveyUSA · 2026-05-28–2026-06-03 · n=466 · Robert Charles (R) 34%,Jonathan Bush 17%,Ben Midgley 11%,Garrett Mason 10%,Owen McCarthy 7%,Robert Wessels 2%,David Jones 2%,James Libby 0% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-05-21–2026-05-25 · n=595 · Nirav Shah 28%,Troy Jackson 28%,Shenna Bellows 13%,Hannah Pingree (D) 12%,Angus King III 7% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-05-21–2026-05-25 · n=465 · Robert Charles (R) 37%,Jonathan Bush 18%,Ben Midgley 11%,Garrett Mason 9%,David Jones 7%,Robert Wessels 6%,Owen McCarthy 2% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Pan Atlantic Research · 2026-05-08–2026-05-18 · n=402 · Nirav Shah 29%,Angus King III 24%,Troy Jackson 12%,Shenna Bellows 10%,Hannah Pingree (D) 9% · release
- Republican primary · Pan Atlantic Research · 2026-02-13–2026-03-02 · n=298 · Robert Charles (R) 26%,Garrett Mason 11%,James Libby 8%,Owen McCarthy 7%,David Jones 6%,Jonathan Bush 4%,Ben Midgley 4% · release
- Democratic primary · Pan Atlantic Research · 2026-02-13–2026-03-02 · n=367 · Angus King III 24%,Nirav Shah 24%,Hannah Pingree (D) 18%,Shenna Bellows 16%,Troy Jackson 10% · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-02-12–2026-02-16 · n=462 · Nirav Shah 25%,Shenna Bellows 19%,Troy Jackson 16%,Hannah Pingree (D) 10%,Angus King III 5% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-02-12–2026-02-16 · n=404 · Robert Charles (R) 28%,Garrett Mason 12%,David Jones 7%,Ben Midgley 6%,Jonathan Bush 5%,Robert Wessels 4%,James Libby 2%,Owen McCarthy 1% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Hart Research (partisan) · 2026-01-15–2026-01-19 · n=502 · Nirav Shah 35%,Hannah Pingree (D) 13%,Angus King III 13%,Shenna Bellows 11%,Troy Jackson 9% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Pan Atlantic Research · 2025-11-29–2025-12-07 · n=318 · Nirav Shah 24%,Angus King III 19%,Hannah Pingree (D) 18%,Shenna Bellows 16%,Troy Jackson 8% · release
- Republican primary · Pan Atlantic Research · 2025-11-29–2025-12-07 · n=312 · Robert Charles (R) 16%,David Jones 6%,Jonathan Bush 5%,James Libby 3%,Owen McCarthy 2% · release
- Republican primary · McLaughlin & Associates (partisan) · 2025-08-23–2025-08-25 · n=300 · Robert Charles (R) 28%,Jonathan Bush 4%,Robert Wessels 3%,Owen McCarthy 2%,David Jones 2%,Garrett Mason 1%,James Libby 1%,Ben Midgley 0.3% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Pan Atlantic Research · 2025-05-12–2025-05-26 · n=325 · Angus King III 33%,Shenna Bellows 24%,Hannah Pingree (D) 20%,Troy Jackson 13% · release
In the news
- Maine gubernatorial candidate Bobby Charles addresses fines
- Fox News Poll: Nail-biter in Maine Senate race
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 52 Vugol Vector D · Anchored
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
52OUT OF 100Moderate attention
Vugol Attention percentile74th
7-day momentum16 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked
Candidate attention share · trailing 7 days0% D · 0% R
Rick Bennett (I) 100% · volume 32 / 7d
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres) · missing: incumbent, money, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-08 (6 days ago)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 201a940d8e87 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: D · Anchored. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.