Governor · Maine · 2026
General election · 1 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Democratic (Anchored) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
9 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated
News attention — — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. First run pending. How it works
On the November ballot (1)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Other filers (2)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_Maine_gubernatorial_election&oldid=1377204221
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
9 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Republican primary
| Robert Charles won | 269 | — |
| Ben Midgley | 230 | — |
| Jonathan Bush | 96 | — |
| Garrett Mason | 76 | — |
| Owen McCarthy | 74 | — |
| Robert Wessels | 54 | — |
| David Jones | 45 | — |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-09 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-07-25 — Special convention: U.S. Senate — DEM (To replace Graham Platner on General Election Ballot)
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (14)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Democratic primary · SurveyUSA · 2026-05-28–2026-06-03 · n=484 · Nirav Shah 25%, Troy Jackson 20%, Hannah Pingree (D) 19%, Angus King III 14%, Shenna Bellows 11% · release
- Republican primary · SurveyUSA · 2026-05-28–2026-06-03 · n=466 · Robert Charles (R) 34%, Jonathan Bush 17%, Ben Midgley 11%, Garrett Mason 10%, Owen McCarthy 7%, Robert Wessels 2%, David Jones 2%, James Libby 0% · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-05-21–2026-05-25 · n=595 · Nirav Shah 28%, Troy Jackson 28%, Shenna Bellows 13%, Hannah Pingree (D) 12%, Angus King III 7% · release
- Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-05-21–2026-05-25 · n=465 · Robert Charles (R) 37%, Jonathan Bush 18%, Ben Midgley 11%, Garrett Mason 9%, David Jones 7%, Robert Wessels 6%, Owen McCarthy 2% · release
- Democratic primary · Pan Atlantic Research · 2026-05-08–2026-05-18 · n=402 · Nirav Shah 29%, Angus King III 24%, Troy Jackson 12%, Shenna Bellows 10%, Hannah Pingree (D) 9% · release
- Republican primary · Pan Atlantic Research · 2026-02-13–2026-03-02 · n=298 · Robert Charles (R) 26%, Garrett Mason 11%, James Libby 8%, Owen McCarthy 7%, David Jones 6%, Jonathan Bush 4%, Ben Midgley 4% · release
- Democratic primary · Pan Atlantic Research · 2026-02-13–2026-03-02 · n=367 · Angus King III 24%, Nirav Shah 24%, Hannah Pingree (D) 18%, Shenna Bellows 16%, Troy Jackson 10% · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-02-12–2026-02-16 · n=462 · Nirav Shah 25%, Shenna Bellows 19%, Troy Jackson 16%, Hannah Pingree (D) 10%, Angus King III 5% · release
- Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-02-12–2026-02-16 · n=404 · Robert Charles (R) 28%, Garrett Mason 12%, David Jones 7%, Ben Midgley 6%, Jonathan Bush 5%, Robert Wessels 4%, James Libby 2%, Owen McCarthy 1% · release
- Democratic primary · Hart Research (partisan) · 2026-01-15–2026-01-19 · n=502 · Nirav Shah 35%, Hannah Pingree (D) 13%, Angus King III 13%, Shenna Bellows 11%, Troy Jackson 9% · release
- Democratic primary · Pan Atlantic Research · 2025-11-29–2025-12-07 · n=318 · Nirav Shah 24%, Angus King III 19%, Hannah Pingree (D) 18%, Shenna Bellows 16%, Troy Jackson 8% · release
- Republican primary · Pan Atlantic Research · 2025-11-29–2025-12-07 · n=312 · Robert Charles (R) 16%, David Jones 6%, Jonathan Bush 5%, James Libby 3%, Owen McCarthy 2% · release
- Republican primary · McLaughlin & Associates (partisan) · 2025-08-23–2025-08-25 · n=300 · Robert Charles (R) 28%, Jonathan Bush 4%, Robert Wessels 3%, Owen McCarthy 2%, David Jones 2%, Garrett Mason 1%, James Libby 1%, Ben Midgley 0.3% · release
- Democratic primary · Pan Atlantic Research · 2025-05-12–2025-05-26 · n=325 · Angus King III 33%, Shenna Bellows 24%, Hannah Pingree (D) 20%, Troy Jackson 13% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention — Vector D · Anchored
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Signals for this race are being collected. The first Attention score lands after the nightly run reaches it; nothing is estimated in the meantime.
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: D · Anchored (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.