Who is ahead in the 2026 Maryland Governor race?

Name: Governor, Maryland, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Wes Moore (D) won the MD Governor race. Moore leads Cox by 36.0 points in our average of verified polls. Verified poll average · 1 poll · newest poll ended 2026-09-27. Updated 2026-11-15.

Home / Races / Maryland / Governor · See all Maryland races

MD2026

Governor · Maryland · 2026

General election · 4 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running

VecD 100 · AnchoredTenD >99%Att61

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Wes Moore (D) won this race.

Wes MooreDemocraticIncumbentWinnerno count in the source

Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Andy Ellis (I), Cathy White (I), Dan Cox (R).

Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 9:24 PM ET (revision)
Last updated: Nov 4, 10:47 AM ET
Source: Wikipedia (race summary table) · official results page

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

Race poll averageGovernor · Maryland

Wes Moore

DIncumbent

68%

Dan Cox

32%

Verified poll average · 1 poll · newest poll ended 2026-09-27

D · Anchoredfrom verified polls

Verified polls Moore leads Cox by 36.0 points in our average of verified polls.

1 verified poll averaged, newest ended 2026-09-27. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 61/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works

On the Maryland ballot, Nov 3, 2026 Governor and Lieutenant Governor, 4 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Maryland? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (4)

Certified by the state, checked 2026-11-15.

Wes MooreGovernor - MD · campaign site on fileDemocratic IncumbentOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Andy EllisGovernor - MD · campaign site on fileGreenOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Cathy WhiteGovernor - MD · campaign site on fileWorking ClassOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Dan CoxGovernor - MD · FEC H4MD06357 · campaign site on fileRepublicanOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file

Official source: https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2026/general_candidates/2026_GG_statewide_candidatelist.csv

Polling average · 1 verified pollVerified

Moore +36

Wes Moore Democratic: Incumbent68%
Dan Cox Republican: 32%

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

1 verified poll

Latest verified pollVerified

Moore +27

Wes Moore Democratic: 51%
Dan Cox Republican: 24%

Cite / verify

Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-MD-GOV

Sourcehttps://politics.umbc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/778/2026/10/UMBC-Poll-Tuesday-Oct-6.pdf

Retrieved2026-11-15

Audit release #3 SHA-25697057fe9c148e3ceadb9f783b7a73e8941369e62c4836d27890aa03f9514ceb7

Polling average Updates as polls arrive

1 verified input

68.0% Wes Moore32.0% Dan Cox

Wes Moore (D)Dan Cox (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Vugol Tensor

How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction

tensor-1.0.0

Centre D+36.0. Four times in five the result lands between D+42.7 and D+29.3; nine in ten between D+44.6 and D+27.4. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: >99%.

Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (1 verified poll), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-06-23, Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (5)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Hypothetical matchup · Gonzales Research · 2025-12-21–2026-01-06 · n=808 · Wes Moore (D) 50%,Generic Republican 28% · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of Maryland, Baltimore County · 2025-10-21–2025-10-25 · n=757 · Wes Moore (D) 49%,Generic Republican 29% · release
Hypothetical matchup · OpinionWorks · 2025-10-07–2025-10-10 · n=928 · Wes Moore (D) 47%,Generic Republican 29% · release
Hypothetical matchup · OpinionWorks · 2025-10-07–2025-10-10 · n=928 · Wes Moore (D) 45%,Larry Hogan (R) 37% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Gonzales Research · 2024-12-27–2025-01-04 · n=811 · Wes Moore (D) 52%,Larry Hogan (R) 38% · release

In the news

Wes Moore, coy about 2028 presidential bid, writes book on ‘healing the nation’Washington Post · Nov 11
Dem governor’s tale of combat action torn to shreds by commanding Army officer: 'Give me a break'Fox News · Nov 10
Redistricting battle could spill into 2028Roll Call · Nov 9
Kathy Hochul entertains massive political promotion as Democrats look ahead to 2028Fox News · Nov 9
How 4 states voted on election-related ballot measuresRoll Call · Nov 6
Black candidates for governor make history with midterm victoriesCBS News · Nov 4
Kamala Harris is a huge loser in new Dem straw poll, as lefty activists anoint a new golden boyNew York Post · Nov 8
Democrats clinch a majority of governorships for first time in 16 yearsNBC News · Nov 4
Wes Moore dodges commitment to full second term if reelected: ReportThe Hill · Oct 6
Tuesday’s elections bring historic first for Black governorsNBC News · Nov 3

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 61 Vugol Vector D · Anchored

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

61OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Vugol Attention percentile91th

7-day momentum18 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness5 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, incumbent, poll) · missing: money, pulse

Evidence1 audit release (#3)

Freshnessoldest input 2026-10-29 (17 days ago)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Audit release #3, as of 2026-10-29: source manifest & checksum.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 6296113516c3 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: D · Anchored. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.