U.S. House — MD-05 · Maryland · 2026
General election · 3 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Democratic (Anchored) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated
News attention 55/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 4 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (1)
Certified by the state, checked 2026-09-29.
Also on the certified ballot: Chris Chaffee (Republican), Mildred Marie Hall (Other Candidates).
Not on the certified ballot (17)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2026/general_candidates/2026_GG_statewide_candidatelist.csv
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Boafo | $1,676,916 | $1,585,049 | $91,867 | 2026-06-30 |
| Alexis Solis | $29,633 | $25,133 | $4,500 | 2026-06-30 |
| Arthur Carr Ellis | $227,421 | $149,052 | $78,370 | 2026-06-30 |
| David Sundberg | $188,438 | $188,438 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
| Harry Dunn | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-09-29 |
| Harry Jarin | $432,658 | $432,658 | $0 | 2026-07-03 |
| Heather Marie Luper | $28,563 | $28,263 | $300 | 2026-07-10 |
| Kenneth Simons | $14,105 | $550 | $0 | 2026-06-12 |
| Leigha Michele Messick | $8,210 | $5,452 | $2,758 | 2026-06-30 |
| Michelle Talkington | $15,640 | $15,193 | $2,453 | 2026-06-30 |
| Nicole Williams | $151,952 | $138,299 | $13,653 | 2026-06-30 |
| Quincy Bareebe | $6,805,528 | $6,794,549 | $11,198 | 2026-06-30 |
| Reuben Burton Collins II | $39,871 | $33,610 | $6,261 | 2026-06-30 |
| Rushern L Baker III | $369,665 | $294,460 | $75,204 | 2026-06-03 |
| Terry Antonio Jackson II | $16,322 | $16,322 | $0 | 2026-04-24 |
| Tracy Starr | $33,254 | $30,604 | $2,649 | 2026-06-30 |
| Wala Blegay | $482,800 | $478,273 | $4,526 | 2026-06-30 |
| Walter Kirkland | $48,296 | $49,603 | $-1,307 | 2026-06-03 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Adrian Boafo won | 33,081 | 32.7% |
| Quincy Bareebe | 17,515 | 17.3% |
| Harry Dunn | 14,189 | 14.0% |
| Wala Blegay | 11,258 | 11.1% |
| Rushern Baker | 10,588 | 10.5% |
| Arthur Ellis | 2,883 | 2.9% |
| Reuben B. Collins, II | 1,640 | 1.6% |
| Harry Jarin | 1,515 | 1.5% |
| Nicole A. Williams (withdrawn) | 1,445 | 1.4% |
| Alexis S. Solis | 949 | 0.9% |
| Dave Sundberg | 898 | 0.9% |
| Leigha Messick | 795 | 0.8% |
| Mark Arness (withdrawn) | 617 | 0.6% |
| Walter Kirkland | 505 | 0.5% |
| Tracy Starr | 502 | 0.5% |
| Jerry Lightfoot | 460 | 0.5% |
| Terry Jackson II (withdrawn) | 403 | 0.4% |
| Heather Luper | 377 | 0.4% |
| Harold Tolbert | 373 | 0.4% |
| Ellis D. Colvin | 286 | 0.3% |
| Elldwnia English | 257 | 0.3% |
| Keith Salkowski | 203 | 0.2% |
| Kenneth Simons | 160 | 0.2% |
| James Anderson Makle, Jr. | 149 | 0.2% |
Republican primary
| Chris Chaffee won | 11,536 | 51.2% |
| Michelle Talkington | 7,866 | 34.9% |
| Bryan DuVal | 3,145 | 14.0% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-23 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (2)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Democratic primary · Clarity Campaign · 2026-05-26–2026-05-28 · n=526 · Adrian Boafo (D) 17%, Quincy Bareebe (D) 10%, Rushern Baker (D) 10%, Wala Blegay (D) 5%, Harry Dunn (D) 5%, Arthur Ellis (D) 2%, Harry Jarin (D) 1% · release
- Democratic primary · GQR (partisan) · 2026-02-26–2026-03-01 · n=400 · Rushern Baker (D) 22%, Harry Dunn (D) 15%, Wala Blegay (D) 11%, Nicole Williams (D) 9%, Quincy Bareebe (D) 6%, Arthur Ellis (D) 5%, Adrian Boafo (D) 3%, Harry Jarin (D) 1% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention 55 Vector D · Anchored
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 713813aac126 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: D · Anchored (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.