Governor · Massachusetts · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Democratic (Anchored) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
10 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 36/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Other filers (4)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://www.wcvb.com/article/republican-convention-2026-worcester-massachusetts/71126611
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
10 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Maura Healey (incumbent) won | 767,711 | 98.3% |
Republican primary · official results
| Michael Minogue won | 194,758 | 75.6% |
| Brian Shortsleeve | 62,161 | 24.1% |
| Mike Kennealy | 253 | 14.1% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-09-01 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (23)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=201 · Mike Minogue (R) 55%, Brian Shortsleeve 11% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=881 · Maura Healey (D) 55%, Brian Shortsleeve (R) 28% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2026-08-05–2026-08-12 · n=800 · Maura Healey (D) 51%, Brian Shortsleeve (R) 32% · release
- Republican primary · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2026-08-05–2026-08-12 · n=209 · Mike Minogue (R) 49%, Brian Shortsleeve 24% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=623 · Maura Healey (D) 50%, Brian Shortsleeve (R) 32% · release
- Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=176 · Mike Minogue (R) 46%, Brian Shortsleeve 15% · release
- Republican primary · Suffolk University · 2026-05-26–2026-05-29 · n=465 · Mike Minogue (R) 45%, Brian Shortsleeve 13% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Polity Research Consulting · 2026-04-19–2026-05-07 · n=608 · Maura Healey (D) 59%, Brian Shortsleeve (R) 30% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-04-16–2026-04-20 · n=603 · Maura Healey (D) 51%, Brian Shortsleeve (R) 29% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-04-16–2026-04-20 · n=597 · Maura Healey (D) 53%, Mike Kennealy (R) 32% · release
- Republican primary · Pulse Decision Science (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=500 · Mike Minogue (R) 29%, Brian Shortsleeve 16%, Mike Kennealy 7% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-02-12–2026-02-16 · n=620 · Maura Healey (D) 58%, Brian Shortsleeve (R) 28% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-02-12–2026-02-16 · n=620 · Maura Healey (D) 55%, Mike Kennealy (R) 28% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-10-21–2025-10-29 · n=800 · Maura Healey (D) 49%, Mike Kennealy (R) 27% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-10-21–2025-10-29 · n=800 · Maura Healey (D) 48%, Brian Shortsleeve (R) 27% · release
- Republican primary · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-10-21–2025-10-29 · n=183 · Mike Kennealy 27%, Brian Shortsleeve 15%, Mike Minogue (R) 15% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Advantage, Inc. (partisan) · 2025-09-23–2025-09-24 · n=750 · Maura Healey (D) 46%, Brian Shortsleeve (R) 31% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Advantage, Inc. (partisan) · 2025-09-23–2025-09-24 · n=750 · Maura Healey (D) 45%, Mike Kennealy (R) 34% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-02-14–2025-02-20 · n=700 · Maura Healey (D) 44%, Brian Shortsleeve (R) 12% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-02-14–2025-02-20 · n=700 · Maura Healey (D) 44%, Lewis Evangelidis (R) 14% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-02-14–2025-02-20 · n=700 · Maura Healey (D) 41%, Peter Durant (R) 14% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-02-14–2025-02-20 · n=700 · Maura Healey (D) 40%, Mike Kennealy (R) 15% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-02-14–2025-02-20 · n=700 · Maura Healey (D) 45%, John Deaton (R) 25% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention 36 Vector D · Anchored
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 5560e6000e6a · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: D · Anchored (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.