Who is ahead in the 2026 Massachusetts Governor race?

Name: Governor, Massachusetts, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Healey leads Minogue by 20.6 points in our average of verified polls. Verified poll average · 8 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-31. Updated 2026-11-15.

Home / Races / Massachusetts / Governor

MA2026

Governor · Massachusetts · 2026

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running

VecD 100 · AnchoredTenD >99%Att39

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Not yet decided

No result has been reported for the Massachusetts Governor race yet. The state publishes its count on its official results page.

Checked against our results rows (state feeds and Wikipedia’s race tables). The polls and ratings further down were published before the election and are not results.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

Race poll averageGovernor · Massachusetts

Maura Healey

DIncumbent

58%

Michael Minogue

38%

Verified poll average · 8 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-314% other

D · Anchoredfrom verified polls

Verified polls Healey leads Minogue by 20.6 points in our average of verified polls.

8 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-10-31. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 39/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works

On the Massachusetts ballot, Nov 3, 2026 Governor and Lieutenant Governor, 3 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Massachusetts? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Maura HealeyGovernor - MADemocratic IncumbentOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Michael MinogueGovernor - MARepublicanOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file

Other filers (4)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Andrea JamesGovernor - MAIndependentNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file Kim DriscollGovernor - MADemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file Muhammed Kokonezis-HaninoGovernor - MAIndependentNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file Shawn OliverGovernor - MARepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file

Ballot source: https://www.wcvb.com/article/republican-convention-2026-worcester-massachusetts/71126611

Polling average · 8 verified pollsVerified

Healey +21

Maura Healey Democratic: Incumbent58.1%
Michael Minogue Republican: 37.5%
Andrea James Independent: 4.3%

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

8 verified polls

Latest verified pollVerified

Healey +19

Maura Healey Democratic: 55%
Michael Minogue Republican: 36%
Andrea James Independent: 5%

Other 1% · Undecided 4%

Cite / verify

Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-MA-GOV

Sourcehttps://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1014/

Retrieved2026-11-15

Polling average Updates as polls arrive

8 verified inputs

58.1% Maura Healey37.5% Michael Minogue4.3% Andrea James

Maura Healey (D)Mike Minogue (R)Andrea James (I)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Vugol Tensor

How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction

tensor-1.0.0

Centre D+20.6. Four times in five the result lands between D+27.3 and D+13.9; nine in ten between D+29.2 and D+12.0. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: >99%.

Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (8 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.

Democratic primary

Maura Healey (incumbent) won	767,711	98.3%

Republican primary · official results

Michael Minogue won	194,758	75.6%
Brian Shortsleeve	62,161	24.1%
Mike Kennealy	253	14.1%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-09-01, Primary election: U.S. Senate
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (23)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=201 · Mike Minogue (R) 55%,Brian Shortsleeve 11% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=881 · Maura Healey (D) 55%,Brian Shortsleeve (R) 28% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2026-08-05–2026-08-12 · n=800 · Maura Healey (D) 51%,Brian Shortsleeve (R) 32% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2026-08-05–2026-08-12 · n=209 · Mike Minogue (R) 49%,Brian Shortsleeve 24% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=623 · Maura Healey (D) 50%,Brian Shortsleeve (R) 32% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=176 · Mike Minogue (R) 46%,Brian Shortsleeve 15% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Suffolk University · 2026-05-26–2026-05-29 · n=465 · Mike Minogue (R) 45%,Brian Shortsleeve 13% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Polity Research Consulting · 2026-04-19–2026-05-07 · n=608 · Maura Healey (D) 59%,Brian Shortsleeve (R) 30% · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-04-16–2026-04-20 · n=603 · Maura Healey (D) 51%,Brian Shortsleeve (R) 29% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-04-16–2026-04-20 · n=597 · Maura Healey (D) 53%,Mike Kennealy (R) 32% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · Pulse Decision Science (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=500 · Mike Minogue (R) 29%,Brian Shortsleeve 16%,Mike Kennealy 7% · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-02-12–2026-02-16 · n=620 · Maura Healey (D) 58%,Brian Shortsleeve (R) 28% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-02-12–2026-02-16 · n=620 · Maura Healey (D) 55%,Mike Kennealy (R) 28% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-10-21–2025-10-29 · n=800 · Maura Healey (D) 49%,Mike Kennealy (R) 27% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-10-21–2025-10-29 · n=800 · Maura Healey (D) 48%,Brian Shortsleeve (R) 27% · pollster's site · release
Republican primary · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-10-21–2025-10-29 · n=183 · Mike Kennealy 27%,Brian Shortsleeve 15%,Mike Minogue (R) 15% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Advantage, Inc. (partisan) · 2025-09-23–2025-09-24 · n=750 · Maura Healey (D) 46%,Brian Shortsleeve (R) 31% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Advantage, Inc. (partisan) · 2025-09-23–2025-09-24 · n=750 · Maura Healey (D) 45%,Mike Kennealy (R) 34% · release
Hypothetical matchup · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-02-14–2025-02-20 · n=700 · Maura Healey (D) 44%,Brian Shortsleeve (R) 12% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-02-14–2025-02-20 · n=700 · Maura Healey (D) 44%,Lewis Evangelidis (R) 14% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-02-14–2025-02-20 · n=700 · Maura Healey (D) 41%,Peter Durant (R) 14% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-02-14–2025-02-20 · n=700 · Maura Healey (D) 40%,Mike Kennealy (R) 15% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-02-14–2025-02-20 · n=700 · Maura Healey (D) 45%,John Deaton (R) 25% · pollster's site · release

In the news

Blue wave meets ballot box surprises as voters split on abortion, voter ID and billionaire taxesFox News · Nov 14
Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek wins re-election bid in OregonNBC News · Nov 4
At the Races: Family in the frayRoll Call · Oct 22
Brutal study ranks the worst governors in America, and it’s terrible news for Gavin NewsomNew York Post · Oct 26
Massachusetts and Idaho put guns on the ballot. One seeks to restrict them, the other to honor themABC News · Oct 25
Massachusetts GOP lieutenant governor candidate suspends campaign after arrest in car crashABC News · Oct 18
Massachusetts GOP ticket rocked by alleged drunken crash as candidate abruptly halts campaignFox News · Oct 18
Massachusetts governor shifts green-energy stance to face voters stuck with big gas, electric billsWashington Times · Oct 13
AI is supercharging political ad wars. But viral doesn’t mean victoriousFox News · Oct 5

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 39 Vugol Vector D · Anchored

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

39OUT OF 100Low attention

Vugol Attention percentile54th

7-day momentum5 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, incumbent) · missing: money, pulse, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-14 (yesterday)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 014c9de902a9 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: D · Anchored. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.