U.S. Senate · Massachusetts · 2026
General election · 4 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Democratic (Anchored) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
11 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 41/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (4)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (1)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.
Other filers (3)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Massachusetts&oldid=1377598876
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
11 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Markey | $8,051,970 | $8,355,270 | $1,348,676 | 2026-08-12 |
| Alexander Rikleen | $79,333 | $77,344 | $1,989 | 2026-06-30 |
| John Deaton | $1,561,360 | $848,943 | $712,417 | 2026-08-12 |
| Joseph Tache | $269,878 | $176,871 | $93,007 | 2026-09-30 |
| Morgan Gifford Dawicki | $16,498 | $7,743 | $3,564 | 2026-06-30 |
| Nathan Alexander Bech | $80,010 | $56,107 | $28,677 | 2026-06-30 |
| Seth Moulton | $6,213,103 | $6,228,105 | $1,835,336 | 2026-08-12 |
| Shiva Ayyadurai | $285,486 | $153,114 | $131,229 | 2026-09-30 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Ed Markey (incumbent) won | 580,628 | 64.7% |
| Seth Moulton | 314,198 | 35.0% |
Republican primary
| John Deaton won | 221,950 | 99.3% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-09-01 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (22)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Democratic primary · Emerson College · 2026-08-28–2026-08-29 · n=550 · Ed Markey (D) 60%, Seth Moulton (D) 33% · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=550 · Ed Markey (D) 63%, Seth Moulton (D) 28% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-08-20–2026-08-24 · n=881 · Seth Moulton (D) 38%, John Deaton (R) 25% · release
- Democratic primary · Suffolk University · 2026-08-13–2026-08-16 · n=500 · Ed Markey (D) 52%, Seth Moulton (D) 38% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2026-08-05–2026-08-12 · n=800 · Seth Moulton (D) 49%, John Deaton (R) 25% · release
- Democratic primary · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2026-08-05–2026-08-12 · n=445 · Ed Markey (D) 54%, Seth Moulton (D) 28% · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=370 · Ed Markey (D) 41%, Seth Moulton (D) 35% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=623 · Seth Moulton (D) 50%, John Deaton (R) 30% · release
- Democratic primary · Emerson College · 2026-05-03–2026-05-04 · n=451 · Ed Markey (D) 37%, Seth Moulton (D) 32%, Alex Rikleen (D) 1% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-04-16–2026-04-20 · n=600 · Seth Moulton (D) 56%, John Deaton (R) 25% · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-04-16–2026-04-20 · n=353 · Ed Markey (D) 46%, Seth Moulton (D) 33%, Alex Rikleen (D) 6% · release
- Democratic primary · Suffolk University · 2026-04-09–2026-04-13 · n=500 · Ed Markey (D) 47%, Seth Moulton (D) 30% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of New Hampshire · 2026-02-12–2026-02-16 · n=620 · Seth Moulton (D) 59%, John Deaton (R) 23% · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-02-12–2026-02-16 · n=352 · Ed Markey (D) 35%, Seth Moulton (D) 23%, Alex Rikleen (D) 7% · release
- Democratic primary · Suffolk University · 2025-11-19–2025-11-23 · n=226 · Ed Markey (D) 45%, Seth Moulton (D) 22% · release
- Democratic primary · Suffolk University · 2025-11-19–2025-11-23 · n=226 · Ayanna Pressley 35%, Ed Markey (D) 34%, Seth Moulton (D) 16% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Suffolk University · 2025-11-19–2025-11-23 · n=500 · Seth Moulton (D) 52%, John Deaton (R) 29% · release
- Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2025-11-13–2025-11-17 · n=343 · Ed Markey (D) 34%, Seth Moulton (D) 25%, Alex Rikleen (D) 2% · release
- Democratic primary · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-10-21–2025-10-29 · n=416 · Ed Markey (D) 44%, Seth Moulton (D) 25%, Alex Rikleen (D) 5% · release
- Democratic primary · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-10-21–2025-10-29 · n=416 · Seth Moulton (D) 26%, Ayanna Pressley 23%, Michelle Wu 17%, Joseph P. Kennedy III 9%, Jake Auchincloss 5%, Alex Rikleen (D) 3% · release
- Democratic primary · Data for Progress (partisan) · 2025-10-23–2025-10-26 · n=652 · Ed Markey (D) 53%, Seth Moulton (D) 34% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · UMass Amherst/YouGov · 2025-02-14–2025-02-20 · n=700 · Ed Markey (D) 35%, Charlie Baker (R) 33% · release
In the news
- The most vulnerable senators of 2026, about a month out from Election Day
- Read full episode transcripts of "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" from 2026
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Signals (experimental)
Attention 41 Vector D · Anchored
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 babe8bf2f71e · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: D · Anchored (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.