U.S. Senate · Louisiana · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Result
CalledJulia Letlow (R) won this race with 50.9% of the vote, 1.8 points ahead.
- Julia LetlowRepublicanWinner50.9%746,000 votes
- Jamie DavisDemocratic49.1%720,150 votes
- Margin
- 25,850 votes (1.8 points)
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 12:33 AM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 14, 6:05 AM ET
- Source
- Wikipedia · official results page
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is R. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Model rating Leans Republican (Tilting) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.
3 polls on file, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 5 of 7, updated today. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 67/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (4)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Other filers (6)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/static/2026-05-16/resultsRace/Congressional
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.
Polling average
3 polls on file for this race, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), visible below, not averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Miguez | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-11-14 |
| Christopher Lee Holder | $7,600 | $3,500 | $4,100 | 2024-12-31 |
| Eric Skrmetta | $67,750 | $63,129 | $4,621 | 2026-09-30 |
| Gary Crockett | $350,000 | $49,541 | $270,987 | 2026-06-07 |
| Jamie Davis | $5,019,888 | $3,764,960 | $1,254,929 | 2026-10-14 |
| John C. Fleming Jr. | $12,372,938 | $12,367,652 | $5,359 | 2026-10-14 |
| Julia Letlow | $7,062,069 | $6,618,899 | $443,170 | 2026-10-14 |
| Julie Cathryn Emerson | $728,875 | $664,491 | $64,384 | 2026-09-30 |
| Kathy W Seiden | $1,202,191 | $1,202,191 | $0 | 2026-05-12 |
| Mark Spencer | $5,421 | $5,366 | $55 | 2026-09-30 |
| Nicholas S. Albares | $143,284 | $143,284 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
| Samuel Lee Wyatt | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-11-14 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Letlow | $3.8M | $14.1M | $10.9M |
| John C. Fleming Jr. | $3.3M | $19K | $700K |
| Blake Miguez | $1.9M | $250K | $1.2M |
| Jamie Davis | $171K | ||
| Kathy W Seiden | $105K | ||
| Nicholas S. Albares | $84K |
Biggest outside spenders
- Julia Letlow. For: ACCOUNTABILITY PROJECT INC $10.7M, AMERICAN MISSION $1.2M, SAVE AMERICAN FREEDOM $963K. Against: LOUISIANA FREEDOM FUND $10.8M, RED BAYOU PAC $45K
- John C. Fleming Jr.. For: RED BAYOU PAC $14K, Lundy $5,384. Against: CONSERVATIVES FOR A BETTER TOMORROW INC. $700K
- Blake Miguez. For: FELLOWSHIP PAC $250K. Against: CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC. $1.2M, 4THE56 $2,063
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-06, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.
general election
| Julia Letlow won | 746,000 | 50.9% |
| Jamie Davis | 720,150 | 49.1% |
Democratic primary runoff
| Jamie Davis won | 156,789 | 79.9% |
| Gary Crockett | 39,423 | 20.1% |
Republican primary runoff
| Julia Letlow won | 180,002 | 56.9% |
| John Fleming | 136,591 | 43.1% |
Democratic primary
| Jamie Davis advanced | 163,549 | 47.4% |
| Gary Crockett advanced | 90,791 | 26.3% |
| Nicholas Albares | 90,498 | 26.2% |
Republican primary · official results
| Julia Letlow advanced | 179,903 | 44.8% |
| John Fleming advanced | 113,437 | 28.3% |
| Bill Cassidy (incumbent) | 99,496 | 24.8% |
| Mark Spencer | 8,338 | 2.1% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-05-16, Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-06-27, Runoff: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-12-12, General runoff: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (40)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-06-23–2026-06-24 · n=770 · Julia Letlow (R) 48%,John Fleming (R) 45% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary runoff · JMC Analytics (partisan) · 2026-06-21–2026-06-22 · n=600 · John Fleming (R) 45%,Julia Letlow (R) 40% · release
- Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-06-15–2026-06-16 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 40%,John Fleming (R) 38% · release
- Republican primary runoff · Kaplan Strategies (partisan) · 2026-05-24–2026-05-26 · n=850 · Julia Letlow (R) 52%,John Fleming (R) 37% · release
- Republican primary runoff · Harper Polling (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-19 · n=457 · Julia Letlow (R) 52%,John Fleming (R) 35% · release
- Republican primary runoff · JMC Analytics (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-19 · n=640 · Julia Letlow (R) 45%,John Fleming (R) 44% · release
- Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-06–2026-05-07 · n=1,015 · Julia Letlow (R) 45%,John Fleming (R) 40% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-06–2026-05-07 · n=1,015 · John Fleming (R) 55%,Bill Cassidy 25% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-06–2026-05-07 · n=1,015 · Julia Letlow (R) 63%,Bill Cassidy 23% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-04-28–2026-04-30 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 51%,Bill Cassidy 28% · release
- Republican primary · BDPC · 2026-04-28–2026-04-30 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 33%,John Fleming (R) 21%,Bill Cassidy 21%,Mark Spencer (R) 2% · release
- Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-04-28–2026-04-30 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 42%,John Fleming (R) 31% · release
- Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-04-28–2026-04-30 · n=600 · John Fleming (R) 47%,Bill Cassidy 30% · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-04-24–2026-04-26 · n=500 · John Fleming (R) 28%,Julia Letlow (R) 27%,Bill Cassidy 21%,Mark Spencer (R) 2% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Harris, DeVille & Associates · 2026-03-13–2026-03-19 · n=683 · Bill Cassidy 45%,Julia Letlow (R) 34%,John Fleming (R) 21% · release
- Republican primary runoff · Harris, DeVille & Associates · 2026-03-13–2026-03-19 · n=683 · Bill Cassidy 51%,John Fleming (R) 49% · release
- Republican primary runoff · Harris, DeVille & Associates · 2026-03-13–2026-03-19 · n=683 · Bill Cassidy 54%,Julia Letlow (R) 46% · release
- Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-03-16–2026-03-17 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 50%,Bill Cassidy 24% · release
- Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-03-16–2026-03-17 · n=600 · John Fleming (R) 49%,Bill Cassidy 26% · release
- Republican primary · BDPC · 2026-03-16–2026-03-17 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 29%,John Fleming (R) 24%,Bill Cassidy 20% · release
- Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-03-16–2026-03-17 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 34%,John Fleming (R) 33% · release
- Republican primary runoff · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2026-03-11–2026-03-12 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 46%,Bill Cassidy 34% · release
- Republican primary · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2026-03-11–2026-03-12 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 27%,Bill Cassidy 26%,John Fleming (R) 19%,Mark Spencer (R) 1% · release
- Republican primary · Public Opinion Strategies (partisan) · 2026-03-07–2026-03-10 · n=500 · Bill Cassidy 35%,Julia Letlow (R) 24%,John Fleming (R) 21%,Mark Spencer (R) 2% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary runoff · Public Opinion Strategies (partisan) · 2026-03-07–2026-03-10 · n=500 · Bill Cassidy 45%,Julia Letlow (R) 43% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=1,428 · John Fleming (R) 42%,Julia Letlow (R) 32% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=1,428 · Julia Letlow (R) 48%,Bill Cassidy 27% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=1,428 · John Fleming (R) 34%,Julia Letlow (R) 25%,Bill Cassidy 20% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=1,428 · John Fleming (R) 57%,Bill Cassidy 23% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-02-21–2026-02-23 · n=600 · John Fleming (R) 43%,Bill Cassidy 32% · release
- Republican primary · BDPC · 2026-02-21–2026-02-23 · n=600 · Bill Cassidy 28%,John Fleming (R) 21%,Julia Letlow (R) 21% · release
- Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-02-21–2026-02-23 · n=600 · John Fleming (R) 36%,Julia Letlow (R) 27% · release
- Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-02-21–2026-02-23 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 42%,Bill Cassidy 34% · release
- Republican primary runoff · JMC Analytics & Polling · 2026-02-14–2026-02-16 · n=645 · John Fleming (R) 48%,Bill Cassidy 28% · release
- Republican primary runoff · JMC Analytics (partisan) · 2026-02-14–2026-02-16 · n=645 · John Fleming (R) 40%,Julia Letlow (R) 31% · release
- Republican primary · JMC Analytics & Polling · 2026-02-14–2026-02-16 · n=645 · John Fleming (R) 26%,Julia Letlow (R) 25%,Bill Cassidy 22%,Mark Spencer (R) 1% · release
- Republican primary · BDPC · 2026-01-20–2026-01-22 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 27%,Bill Cassidy 21%,John Fleming (R) 14%,Blake Miguez (R) 5% · release
- Republican primary runoff · Public Opinion Strategies (partisan) · 2026-01-20–2026-01-22 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 46%,Bill Cassidy 40% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Public Opinion Strategies (partisan) · 2026-01-20–2026-01-22 · n=600 · Bill Cassidy 32%,Julia Letlow (R) 21%,John Fleming (R) 16%,Blake Miguez (R) 9%,Eric Skrmetta (R) 1% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · JMC Analytics & Polling · 2026-01-12–2026-01-14 · n=650 · John Fleming (R) 23%,Bill Cassidy 22% · release
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Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 67 Vugol Vector R · Tilting
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Vugol Tensor
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre R+7.9. Four times in five the result lands between D+1.5 and R+17.3; nine in ten between D+4.1 and R+20.0. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 14%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 07347a35caa8 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: R · Tilting. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.