LA2026

U.S. Senate · Louisiana · 2026

Name: U.S. Senate, Louisiana — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Republican (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

2 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 56/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Jamie DavisU.S. Senate — LA · FEC S6LA00615DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$2.0M Julia LetlowU.S. Senate — LA · FEC S6LA00664RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$6.2M

Ran in the primary (5)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.

William M. CassidyU.S. Senate — LA · FEC S4LA00107Republican IncumbentLost primaryFEC raised$13.6M Gary CrockettU.S. Senate — LA · FEC S6LA00680DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$350K John C. Fleming Jr.U.S. Senate — LA · FEC S6LA00318RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$12.3M Mark SpencerU.S. Senate — LA · FEC S6LA00698RepublicanLost primaryFEC raised$5K Nicholas S. AlbaresU.S. Senate — LA · FEC S6LA00706DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$143K

Other filers (6)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Blake MiguezU.S. Senate — LA · FEC S6LA00540RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file Christopher Lee HolderU.S. Senate — LA · FEC S6LA00490RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$8K Eric SkrmettaU.S. Senate — LA · FEC S6LA00672RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$68K Julie Cathryn EmersonU.S. Senate — LA · FEC S6LA00581RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$689K Kathy W SeidenU.S. Senate — LA · FEC S6LA00573RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$1.2M Samuel Lee WyattU.S. Senate — LA · FEC S6LA00532RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file

Ballot source: https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/static/2026-05-16/resultsRace/Congressional

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

2 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

Julia Letlow (R)Jamie Davis (D)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
William M. Cassidy Republican	$13,597,915	$10,408,258	$4,827,334	2026-06-30
Blake Miguez Republican	$0	$0	$0	2026-09-30
Christopher Lee Holder Republican	$7,600	$3,500	$4,100	2024-12-31
Eric Skrmetta Republican	$67,750	$63,105	$4,645	2026-06-30
Gary Crockett Democratic	$350,000	$49,541	$270,987	2026-06-07
Jamie Davis Democratic	$1,983,548	$1,504,444	$479,104	2026-06-30
John C. Fleming Jr. Republican	$12,302,506	$12,262,240	$40,339	2026-06-30
Julia Letlow Republican	$6,210,122	$4,783,049	$1,427,072	2026-06-30
Julie Cathryn Emerson Republican	$688,875	$661,355	$27,520	2026-06-30
Kathy W Seiden Republican	$1,202,191	$1,202,191	$0	2026-05-12
Mark Spencer Republican	$5,421	$5,366	$55	2026-06-30
Nicholas S. Albares Democratic	$143,284	$143,284	$0	2026-06-30
Samuel Lee Wyatt Republican	$0	$0	$0	2026-09-30

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary runoff

Jamie Davis won	156,789	79.9%
Gary Crockett	39,423	20.1%

Republican primary runoff

Julia Letlow won	180,002	56.9%
John Fleming	136,591	43.1%

Democratic primary

Jamie Davis advanced	163,549	47.4%
Gary Crockett advanced	90,791	26.3%
Nicholas Albares	90,498	26.2%

Republican primary · official results

Julia Letlow advanced	179,903	44.8%
John Fleming advanced	113,437	28.3%
Bill Cassidy (incumbent)	99,496	24.8%
Mark Spencer	8,338	2.1%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-05-16 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
2026-06-27 — Runoff: U.S. Senate
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate
2026-12-12 — General runoff: U.S. Senate

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (40)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-06-23–2026-06-24 · n=770 · Julia Letlow (R) 48%, John Fleming (R) 45% · release
Republican primary runoff · JMC Analytics (partisan) · 2026-06-21–2026-06-22 · n=600 · John Fleming (R) 45%, Julia Letlow (R) 40% · release
Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-06-15–2026-06-16 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 40%, John Fleming (R) 38% · release
Republican primary runoff · Kaplan Strategies (partisan) · 2026-05-24–2026-05-26 · n=850 · Julia Letlow (R) 52%, John Fleming (R) 37% · release
Republican primary runoff · Harper Polling (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-19 · n=457 · Julia Letlow (R) 52%, John Fleming (R) 35% · release
Republican primary runoff · JMC Analytics (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-19 · n=640 · Julia Letlow (R) 45%, John Fleming (R) 44% · release
Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-06–2026-05-07 · n=1,015 · Julia Letlow (R) 45%, John Fleming (R) 40% · release
Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-06–2026-05-07 · n=1,015 · John Fleming (R) 55%, Bill Cassidy 25% · release
Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-06–2026-05-07 · n=1,015 · Julia Letlow (R) 63%, Bill Cassidy 23% · release
Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-04-28–2026-04-30 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 51%, Bill Cassidy 28% · release
Republican primary · BDPC · 2026-04-28–2026-04-30 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 33%, John Fleming (R) 21%, Bill Cassidy 21%, Mark Spencer (R) 2% · release
Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-04-28–2026-04-30 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 42%, John Fleming (R) 31% · release
Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-04-28–2026-04-30 · n=600 · John Fleming (R) 47%, Bill Cassidy 30% · release
Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-04-24–2026-04-26 · n=500 · John Fleming (R) 28%, Julia Letlow (R) 27%, Bill Cassidy 21%, Mark Spencer (R) 2% · release
Republican primary · Harris, DeVille & Associates · 2026-03-13–2026-03-19 · n=683 · Bill Cassidy 45%, Julia Letlow (R) 34%, John Fleming (R) 21% · release
Republican primary runoff · Harris, DeVille & Associates · 2026-03-13–2026-03-19 · n=683 · Bill Cassidy 51%, John Fleming (R) 49% · release
Republican primary runoff · Harris, DeVille & Associates · 2026-03-13–2026-03-19 · n=683 · Bill Cassidy 54%, Julia Letlow (R) 46% · release
Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-03-16–2026-03-17 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 50%, Bill Cassidy 24% · release
Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-03-16–2026-03-17 · n=600 · John Fleming (R) 49%, Bill Cassidy 26% · release
Republican primary · BDPC · 2026-03-16–2026-03-17 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 29%, John Fleming (R) 24%, Bill Cassidy 20% · release
Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-03-16–2026-03-17 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 34%, John Fleming (R) 33% · release
Republican primary runoff · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2026-03-11–2026-03-12 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 46%, Bill Cassidy 34% · release
Republican primary · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2026-03-11–2026-03-12 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 27%, Bill Cassidy 26%, John Fleming (R) 19%, Mark Spencer (R) 1% · release
Republican primary · Public Opinion Strategies (partisan) · 2026-03-07–2026-03-10 · n=500 · Bill Cassidy 35%, Julia Letlow (R) 24%, John Fleming (R) 21%, Mark Spencer (R) 2% · release
Republican primary runoff · Public Opinion Strategies (partisan) · 2026-03-07–2026-03-10 · n=500 · Bill Cassidy 45%, Julia Letlow (R) 43% · release
Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=1,428 · John Fleming (R) 42%, Julia Letlow (R) 32% · release
Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=1,428 · Julia Letlow (R) 48%, Bill Cassidy 27% · release
Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=1,428 · John Fleming (R) 34%, Julia Letlow (R) 25%, Bill Cassidy 20% · release
Republican primary runoff · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-02-23–2026-02-24 · n=1,428 · John Fleming (R) 57%, Bill Cassidy 23% · release
Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-02-21–2026-02-23 · n=600 · John Fleming (R) 43%, Bill Cassidy 32% · release
Republican primary · BDPC · 2026-02-21–2026-02-23 · n=600 · Bill Cassidy 28%, John Fleming (R) 21%, Julia Letlow (R) 21% · release
Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-02-21–2026-02-23 · n=600 · John Fleming (R) 36%, Julia Letlow (R) 27% · release
Republican primary runoff · BDPC · 2026-02-21–2026-02-23 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 42%, Bill Cassidy 34% · release
Republican primary runoff · JMC Analytics & Polling · 2026-02-14–2026-02-16 · n=645 · John Fleming (R) 48%, Bill Cassidy 28% · release
Republican primary runoff · JMC Analytics (partisan) · 2026-02-14–2026-02-16 · n=645 · John Fleming (R) 40%, Julia Letlow (R) 31% · release
Republican primary · JMC Analytics & Polling · 2026-02-14–2026-02-16 · n=645 · John Fleming (R) 26%, Julia Letlow (R) 25%, Bill Cassidy 22%, Mark Spencer (R) 1% · release
Republican primary · BDPC · 2026-01-20–2026-01-22 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 27%, Bill Cassidy 21%, John Fleming (R) 14%, Blake Miguez (R) 5% · release
Republican primary runoff · Public Opinion Strategies (partisan) · 2026-01-20–2026-01-22 · n=600 · Julia Letlow (R) 46%, Bill Cassidy 40% · release
Republican primary · Public Opinion Strategies (partisan) · 2026-01-20–2026-01-22 · n=600 · Bill Cassidy 32%, Julia Letlow (R) 21%, John Fleming (R) 16%, Blake Miguez (R) 9%, Eric Skrmetta (R) 1% · release
Republican primary · JMC Analytics & Polling · 2026-01-12–2026-01-14 · n=650 · John Fleming (R) 23%, Bill Cassidy 22% · release

In the news

Sen. John Kennedy pushes to ban living pols from getting buildings named after themNew York Post · Sep 28

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Signals (experimental)

Attention 56 Vector R · Tilting

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

56OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile91th

7-day momentum1 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, pres, incumbent, money) · missing: prior, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-27 (3 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin R +9.6Presidential lean of the seat (2024 R +22.4, national swing D +10.5)R +11.9Fundraising velocity (FEC)R +8.0IncumbencyR +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 01663978869a · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: R · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.