U.S. House — KY-04 · Kentucky · 2026
General election · 3 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Republican (Anchored) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention — — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. First run pending. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (2)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.
Other filers (2)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Kentucky&oldid=1377346281
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas H. Massie | $8,837,697 | $8,934,184 | $810,523 | 2026-06-30 |
| Ed Gallrein | $3,567,324 | $3,388,014 | $179,309 | 2026-06-30 |
| Jeremy Ryan Todd | $22,393 | $16,472 | $5,921 | 2026-06-30 |
| Jesse Russell Brewer | $9,681 | $9,722 | $-420 | 2026-04-29 |
| Melissa Claire Strange | $94,464 | $83,319 | $11,145 | 2026-06-30 |
| Monica Dean | $9,190 | $5,518 | $3,671 | 2025-06-30 |
| Robert Stacy Wells | $113,241 | $94,102 | $19,139 | 2026-06-30 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Melissa Claire Strange won | 30,108 | 72.4% |
| Jesse Russell Brewer | 11,461 | 27.6% |
Republican primary
| Ed Gallrein won | 57,822 | 54.9% |
| Thomas Massie (incumbent) | 47,539 | 45.1% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Primary and hypothetical polls (10)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Republican primary · Big Data Poll (partisan) · 2026-05-16–2026-05-18 · n=587 · Ed Gallrein (R) 44%, Thomas Massie (R) 43% · release
- Republican primary · Big Data Poll (partisan) · 2026-05-15–2026-05-17 · n=555 · Ed Gallrein (R) 44%, Thomas Massie (R) 43% · release
- Republican primary · Grayhouse (partisan) · 2026-05-16–2026-05-17 · n=435 · Ed Gallrein (R) 51%, Thomas Massie (R) 44% · release
- Republican primary · Big Data Poll (partisan) · 2026-05-14–2026-05-16 · n=510 · Thomas Massie (R) 44%, Ed Gallrein (R) 43% · release
- Republican primary · SoCal Strategies (partisan) · 2026-05-15–2026-05-16 · n=450 · Ed Gallrein (R) 49%, Thomas Massie (R) 42% · release
- Republican primary · Big Data Poll (partisan) · 2026-05-12–2026-05-14 · n=518 · Thomas Massie (R) 51%, Ed Gallrein (R) 49% · release
- Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-05-11–2026-05-12 · n=908 · Ed Gallrein (R) 48%, Thomas Massie (R) 43% · release
- Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-04-06–2026-04-07 · n=438 · Thomas Massie (R) 47%, Ed Gallrein (R) 38% · release
- Republican primary · Big Data Poll (partisan) · 2026-04-03–2026-04-07 · n=433 · Thomas Massie (R) 52%, Ed Gallrein (R) 48% · release
- Republican primary · Kaplan Strategies (partisan) · 2025-06-23–2025-06-24 · n=368 · Niki Lee Ethington 31%, Thomas Massie (R) 19% · release
In the news
- Right-wing conservatives push to shut down the last active Jan. 6 prosecution
- House Dems plan oversight of Trump administration; impeachment an option
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Signals (experimental)
Attention — Vector R · Anchored
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Signals for this race are being collected. The first Attention score lands after the nightly run reaches it; nothing is estimated in the meantime.
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: R · Anchored (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.