U.S. Senate · Kentucky · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Republican (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
2 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 55/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated today. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (6)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.
Other filers (4)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://elect.ky.gov/Documents/2026%20Primary%20Certification%20of%20Vote%20Totals%20Final.pdf
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
2 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amy McGrath | $2,373,625 | $2,370,500 | $3,125 | 2026-06-30 |
| Charles Booker | $1,099,509 | $789,887 | $309,623 | 2026-06-30 |
| Christopher Todd Campbell | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Dale Romans | $838,360 | $671,449 | $166,911 | 2026-06-30 |
| Daniel Cameron | $2,254,283 | $2,245,826 | $8,457 | 2026-06-30 |
| Garland Andy Barr | $9,981,055 | $11,368,587 | $2,305,546 | 2026-06-30 |
| Joel Willett | $350,036 | $321,249 | $28,787 | 2025-12-31 |
| Logan Forsythe | $46,938 | $43,805 | $3,133 | 2025-12-31 |
| Michael Faris | $61,530 | $78,371 | $-16,841 | 2026-03-31 |
| Michael James Faris | $61,530 | $78,371 | $-16,841 | 2026-03-31 |
| Nate Morris | $8,631,719 | $8,249,173 | $382,545 | 2026-06-30 |
| Pamela Stevenson | $311,392 | $286,745 | $-13,505 | 2026-03-31 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Charles Booker won | 155,577 | 46.8% |
| Amy McGrath | 119,296 | 35.9% |
| Pamela Stevenson | 20,610 | 6.2% |
| Dale Lewis Romans | 13,696 | 4.1% |
| Logan Forsythe | 9,648 | 2.9% |
| Vincent Anthony Thompson | 6,962 | 2.1% |
| Joshua Blanton Sr. | 6,948 | 2.1% |
Republican primary · official results
| Andy Barr won | 283,833 | 60.5% |
| Daniel Cameron | 144,592 | 30.8% |
| Michael James Faris | 11,219 | 2.4% |
| George Washington | 7,190 | 1.5% |
| Valerie "Dr Val" Fredrick | 5,267 | 1.1% |
| Anissa Catlett | 4,892 | 1.0% |
| James D. Duncan | 3,773 | 0.8% |
| Jonathan M. Holliday | 3,757 | 0.8% |
| A. Nick Shelley | 2,771 | 0.6% |
| Other Donald Wenzel | 1,014 | 0.2% |
| Jimmy I. Leon | 864 | 0.2% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-05-19 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (19)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Democratic primary · Emerson College · 2026-03-29–2026-03-31 · n=400 · Charles Booker (D) 36%, Amy McGrath (D) 18%, Pamela Stevenson (D) 3% · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-03-29–2026-03-31 · n=549 · Andy Barr (R) 28%, Daniel Cameron (R) 21%, Nate Morris (R) 15% · release
- Republican primary · Public Opinion Strategies (partisan) · 2026-03-10–2026-03-12 · n=600 · Daniel Cameron (R) 31%, Andy Barr (R) 29%, Nate Morris (R) 13% · release
- Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-02-04–2026-02-04 · n=870 · Andy Barr (R) 28%, Daniel Cameron (R) 27%, Nate Morris (R) 17% · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-01-31–2026-02-02 · n=523 · Andy Barr (R) 24%, Daniel Cameron (R) 21%, Nate Morris (R) 14% · release
- Democratic primary · Emerson College · 2026-01-31–2026-02-02 · n=523 · Charles Booker (D) 30%, Amy McGrath (D) 19%, Pamela Stevenson (D) 4%, Logan Forsythe (D) 1% · release
- Republican primary · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2026-01-27–2026-01-29 · n=800 · Daniel Cameron (R) 29%, Andy Barr (R) 21%, Nate Morris (R) 18% · release
- Republican primary · OnMessage Inc. (partisan) · 2026-01-05–2026-01-08 · n=600 · Daniel Cameron (R) 40%, Andy Barr (R) 25%, Nate Morris (R) 13% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-12-18–2025-12-19 · n=650 · Generic Republican 51%, Amy McGrath (D) 35% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-12-18–2025-12-19 · n=650 · Generic Republican 50%, Charles Booker (D) 36% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-12-18–2025-12-19 · n=650 · Nate Morris (R) 41%, Charles Booker (D) 40% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-12-18–2025-12-19 · n=650 · Daniel Cameron (R) 46%, Charles Booker (D) 39% · release
- Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-10-17–2025-10-18 · n=590 · Charles Booker (D) 33%, Amy McGrath (D) 30%, Pamela Stevenson (D) 3%, Logan Forsythe (D) 2%, Joel Willett (D) 1% · release
- Republican primary · UpOne Insights (partisan) · 2025-10-13–2025-10-14 · n=600 · Daniel Cameron (R) 42%, Andy Barr (R) 25%, Nate Morris (R) 10% · release
- Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2025-10-08–2025-10-10 · n=911 · Daniel Cameron (R) 39%, Andy Barr (R) 22%, Nate Morris (R) 8% · release
- Republican primary · Public Opinion Strategies (partisan) · 2025-09-02–2025-09-04 · n=600 · Daniel Cameron (R) 37%, Andy Barr (R) 29%, Nate Morris (R) 8% · release
- Republican primary · McLaughlin & Associates (partisan) · 2025-04-13–2025-04-15 · n=500 · Daniel Cameron (R) 44%, Andy Barr (R) 18%, Nate Morris (R) 2% · release
- Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2025-02-25–2025-02-26 · n=1,134 · Daniel Cameron (R) 39%, Andy Barr (R) 18%, Nate Morris (R) 3% · release
- Republican primary · co/efficient (partisan) · 2024-12-02–2024-12-03 · n=1,298 · Daniel Cameron (R) 37%, Andy Barr (R) 12%, Nate Morris (R) 1% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention 55 Vector R · Held
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 7789e74c07fc · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: R · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.