Who is ahead in the 2026 Indiana's 8th District race?

Name: U.S. House - IN-08, Indiana, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Mark Messmer (R) won the IN-08 race with 55.2% of the vote. No verified poll average yet. The Vugol Vector model rates it Anchored (R), a snapshot of today, not a probability. Updated 2026-11-14.

Home / Races / Indiana / U.S. House - IN-08

IN2026

U.S. House - IN-08 · Indiana · 2026

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running

VecR 76 · AnchoredTenR >99%Att52

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Mark Messmer (R) won this race with 55.2% of the vote.

Mark MessmerRepublicanIncumbentWinner55.2%117,667 votes
Mary AllenDemocraticshare not given95,317 votes

Margin: 22,350 votes
Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 3:50 AM ET (revision)
Last updated: Nov 8, 4:25 AM ET
Source: Wikipedia (House results table) · official results page

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is R. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

CandidatesU.S. House - IN-08 · Indiana

Mary Theresa Allen

DEM

Mark Messmer

RIncumbent

REP

No verified poll yet · Vugol Vector: R Anchored

R · AnchoredVugol Vector model

Model rating Leans Republican (Anchored) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.

No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 52/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 15 days ago. How it works

On the Indiana ballot, Nov 3, 2026 United States Representative, District 8, 2 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Indiana? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Mark MessmerU.S. House - IN-08 · FEC H4IN08249Republican IncumbentOn the ballotFEC raised$1.4M Mary Theresa AllenU.S. House - IN-08 · FEC H6IN08293DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$493K

Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Indiana&oldid=1384418050

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.

Polling average

no polls yet

No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Mark Messmer Republican	$1,424,577	$1,080,777	$550,906	2026-10-14
Mary Theresa Allen Democratic	$493,068	$385,561	$107,507	2026-10-14

Ad spending (FEC)

What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.

Candidate	Campaign's own ads	Outside groups for	Outside groups against
Mary Theresa Allen Democratic	$82K+ $39K mail · through 2026-09-30	none reported	none reported
Mark Messmer Republican	$5,000+ $12K mail · through 2026-06-30	none reported	none reported

Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state’s official results.

general election

Mark Messmer (incumbent) won	117,667	55.2%
Mary Allen	95,317	-

Democratic primary

Mary Allen won	18,816	66.7%
Tabitha Zeigler	4,308	15.3%
Christopher Rector	3,321	11.8%
Mario Foradori	1,758	6.2%

Republican primary

Mark Messmer (incumbent) won	52,249	100.0%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-11-08 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0+wiki-house-summary-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-03-21, Election: U.S. House, LIB
2026-05-05, Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 52 Vugol Vector R · Anchored

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

52OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Vugol Attention percentile63th

7-day momentum36 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, incumbent, money) · missing: pres, pulse, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-10-30 (15 days ago)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Vugol Tensor

How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested

tensor-1.0.0

Centre R+19.0. Four times in five the result lands between R+9.6 and R+28.4; nine in ten between R+7.0 and R+31.1. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: <1%.

Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 d8c2d977987c · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: R · Anchored. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.