U.S. House — IL-07 · Illinois · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Democratic (Anchored) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 45/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated today. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (12)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.
Other filers (2)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Illinois&oldid=1376718692
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anabel Mendoza | $294,428 | $294,253 | $176 | 2026-07-01 |
| Anthony Driver Jr. | $248,729 | $248,729 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
| Chad Koppie | $55,451 | $55,408 | $42 | 2026-06-30 |
| Danica David Leigh | $9,830 | $9,830 | $0 | 2025-09-29 |
| David Ehrlich | $11,690 | $11,320 | $0 | 2026-03-31 |
| Felix Tello | $8,410 | $1,898 | $6,512 | 2025-09-30 |
| Jason Friedman | $2,507,058 | $2,121,254 | $385,804 | 2026-02-25 |
| Jazmin J. Robinson | $21,215 | $16,316 | $4,899 | 2025-12-31 |
| John McCombs | $9,316 | $9,316 | $0 | 2025-10-17 |
| Kina I Collins | $54,854 | $52,441 | $2,413 | 2026-02-25 |
| la Shawn K Ford | $722,009 | $609,421 | $112,588 | 2026-06-30 |
| Melissa Conyears-Ervin | $824,853 | $822,590 | $10,997 | 2026-06-30 |
| Reed Showalter | $356,348 | $356,014 | $333 | 2026-06-30 |
| Richard Boykin | $456,945 | $453,445 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
| Rory E. Hoskins | $215,319 | $218,611 | $-3,292 | 2026-06-30 |
| Thomas Fisher | $927,616 | $874,868 | $52,748 | 2026-06-30 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| La Shawn Ford won | 24,408 | 23.7% |
| Melissa Conyears Ervin | 21,120 | 20.5% |
| Anthony Driver Jr. | 11,943 | 11.6% |
| Kina Collins | 9,735 | 9.5% |
| Thomas Fisher | 7,865 | 7.6% |
| Jason Friedman | 7,559 | 7.3% |
| Anabel Mendoza | 5,610 | 5.5% |
| Reed Showalter | 4,620 | 4.5% |
| Richard Boykin | 4,173 | 4.1% |
| Jazmin Robinson | 2,760 | 2.7% |
| Rory Hoskins | 1,990 | 1.9% |
| David Ehrlich | 756 | 0.7% |
| Felix Tello | 355 | 0.3% |
Republican primary
| Chad Koppie won | 3,416 | 65.0% |
| Patricia Easley | 1,843 | 35.0% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Primary and hypothetical polls (1)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Democratic primary · Upswing Research (partisan) · 2026-01-07–2026-01-10 · n=401 · La Shawn Ford (D) 23%, Melissa Conyears–Ervin (D) 15%, Kina Collins (D) 12%, Jason Friedman (D) 10%, Thomas Fisher (D) 4%, Richard Boykin (D) 4% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention 45 Vector D · Anchored
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 dae1caa48f3a · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: D · Anchored (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.