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IA2026

U.S. House — IA-04 · Iowa · 2026

Name: U.S. House — IA-04, Iowa — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Republican (Anchored) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 34/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

Certified by the state on 2026-08-19, checked 2026-09-30.

Chris McGowanU.S. House — IA-04 · FEC H6IA04167RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$680K Dave DawsonU.S. House — IA-04 · FEC H6IA04217DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$136K

Not on the certified ballot (6)

Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.

Ashley WolftornabaneU.S. House — IA-04 · FEC H6IA04159DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$25K Christian SchlaeferU.S. House — IA-04 · FEC H6IA04225RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$8K Douglas JensenU.S. House — IA-04 · FEC H6IA04241RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$30K Matt WindschitlU.S. House — IA-04 · FEC H6IA04175RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$66K Ryan Michael Appleton MeltonU.S. House — IA-04 · FEC H2IA04141DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$14K Ryan RhodesU.S. House — IA-04 · FEC H6IA04209RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$443K

Official source: https://sos.iowa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-08/2026%20General%20-%20Candidate%20List%20Database%20-%20All%20Elections_1.pdf

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no polls yet

No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Ashley Wolftornabane Democratic	$25,158	$24,168	$990	2026-06-30
Chris McGowan Republican	$679,844	$350,993	$328,850	2026-06-30
Christian Schlaefer Republican	$7,710	$5,697	$2,013	2025-12-31
Dave Dawson Democratic	$135,722	$85,959	$49,762	2026-06-30
Douglas Jensen Republican	$30,110	$29,154	$956	2026-03-31
Matt Windschitl Republican	$65,881	$65,881	$0	2026-05-11
Ryan Michael Appleton Melton Democratic	$13,890	$16,787	$0	2026-06-30
Ryan Rhodes Republican	$443,360	$438,696	$4,665	2026-06-30

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary

David Dawson won	11,291	39.1%
Stephanie Steiner	8,836	30.6%
Ashley WolfTornabane	8,782	30.4%

Republican primary

Chris McGowan won	55,077	100.0%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-06-02 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Signals (experimental)

Attention 34 Vector R · Anchored

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

34OUT OF 100Low attention

Attention percentile23th

7-day momentum41 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, money) · missing: pres, incumbent, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-27 (3 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin R +20.4Fundraising velocity (FEC)R +8.0Last result for this seat (2024 R +34.4, national swing D +10.5)R +23.9National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 2cb2c050c262 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: R · Anchored (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.